Friday, February 4, 2011

Worthy Of Drafting After Returning From Injury?

For the next week or so we will examine players from every position who are returning after lengthy, if not season ending, injuries. We will examine players from both leagues, their current ADP, possible alternatives, and finally giving a green light to draft them.  Today we look at two shortstops.
NL Rafael Furcal: ADP (144) the 9th SS off the board. Furcal has only played over 143 games 5 times in his 11 year career. Now that he is 33, he won't play winter ball this offseason as to allow his body to rest and get healthy for the 2011 season. Furcal was limited to 97 games in 2010 due to hamstring and back injuries, and he missed almost all of the 2008 season with a back injury that required surgery.  Is the 33 year old breaking down completely? He is one of the oldest starting SS in the NL. The pros he brings to a fantasy team is his ability to get on base with a career .351 OBP, he will be the switching hitting leadoff man in LA, and continue to provide 100+ R with double digit steals. He also has no competition at the position since LA traded his back up Hu to the Mets. The cons are he is basically a 2 stat producer. He will contribute in R+SB with virtually no power. His days of legging out infield hits are dwindling. I see better alternatives in the draft with equal to better upside with a decade less stress on the body and a few rounds later in the draft. Look for Castro (163), Cabrera (183), and Desmond (195).

AL Elvis Andrus: ADP (70) the 6th SS off the board. Andrus seems to be the most hyped SS I can remember in the past decade. Coming off hamstring and wrist problems last year is he an elite SS this year?  Let’s look at his accomplishments. He finished 10’ with 0HR 35RBI 88R and 32SB while hitting .265 from both the 1st and 9th positions. He is one of the few in all MLB to have an OBP higher than his SLG, that’s what happens when you fail to hit a single HR all year. His 15 caught stealings hurt his run production slightly and he only hit .160 the entire month of September. This year Texas will put up monster offensive numbers and there will be games where the lead will be so large that Elvis has no reason to steal a base. Do not fall into the hype and “potential” upside. Go with a proven player with a more consistent track record a few rounds later. Look at someone like Ramirez (98) or Drew (124) they both put up similar numbers with much more power.

No comments:

Post a Comment