Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Fix My Team...Keepers

Josh asks...
Hi Brett,

I was wondering if you guys would help me out on a keeper situation I am up against?

We are a 12 team H2H daily league (R, HR, RBI, AVG, OBP, SB – W, L, K’s, SV, ERA, WHIP) with 6 keepers per year that move up a round each year at the draft. I have a ton of late value keepers but am on the fence with my last spot… with having 72 top players already kept our draft tends to have players fly off the board much sooner than they would normally would. We also have a minor league system in which I will have to bring up Manny Machado this year as soon as the draft ends since he had over 130 AB’s last year.

As of now I have:

Carlos Gonzalez in the 8th round

Jose Bautista in the 14th round

Adam Wainwright in the 15th round

Bryce Harper in the 18th round

David Price in the 19th round

I have narrowed the last spot to a few players:

Salvador Perez in the 15th round (late round C with .300 ability)

Jarrod Parker in the 18th round (late value SP with some experience)

Brett Anderson in the 22nd (even later value SP but a small sample size last year, I see this as a gamble with upside)

Alex Rios in the 20th round (late round OF but to me is an every other year type of guy and my OF is set already)

Michael Morse in the 20th round (not a fan of him going to SEA, he is an injury risk and again my OF is set)

I am leaning to one (not sure which) of the SP since I traded Gio in the 7th round and Hamels in the 5th round for draft picks already… But would like to know if you see something different!

I also have the 1st overall pick and am getting beat up over saying it will likely be Albert Pujols… Here are the top players (based on ESPN rankings) that are estimated (keepers are not due yet) to be available in the 1st round.

Albert Pujols

Matt Cain

Cliff Lee

Adrian Beltre

Jay Bruce

Jacoby Ellsbury

Jose Reyes

Adrian Gonzalez

Elvis Andrus

Brandon Phillips

Desmond Jennings

As you can see it starts out with top 10 - 20ish players but is down to top 60 by the 12th overall pick…

Thanks for your help!!



It looks as though you have solidified your OF with some top notch players that will put up100+ HR and 300+ RBI this season. Saying that, I would pass on both Rios and Morse as keepers. I have a hard time using a keeper slot on a Catcher. Even though I feel Perez can put up 15HR and hit .300, I have him 15th on my Catcher depth chart. You should have ample opportunity to pick up V-Mart, Lucroy, Rosario, or Pierzynski in your draft and not have to tie up a keeper slot with an average catcher. That leaves Parker and Anderson. Here are my projections for both in 13’. Parker #2 SP 190IP 13-10 3.75ERA 1.26 WHIP 150Ks. For Anderson #3SP 170IP 12-7 3.29ERA 1.22 WHIP 125Ks. The peripherals seem to balance each other out with one getting more Ks with a slightly higher ERA and nearly similar WHIPS. With all numbers being equal let’s look at some other intangibles. Anderson is coming off TJ surgery but fared well in September and the playoffs which other teams took notice. I feel Anderson is Oakland’s best trade chip and other teams have inquired on him all winter. If Oakland is out of contention in 13’ Anderson will get traded. When that happens he loses the pitcher friendly home park of the A’s. Taking all that into consideration I would go with Parker as my last Keeper.

As for your 1st selection there are really only two choices I see. That being Pujols and Reyes. You don’t need additional pitching this early and OF and IF players listed are 2-3 rd selections at best. Yes Pujols is getting older but he is still 30HR 100RBI .300 year in and year out. With Reyes it could be a special year in Toronto. I have Reyes pushing Trout for the leader in Runs scored and Reyes should have a little more pop in his bat up North. Reyes line this year should look like 112R 11HR 60RBI 35SB .305. If you feel you can secure a Rizzo, Freeman, or Davis later in your draft for 1B slot I would go with Reyes as your pick. If 1B looks to be sew up you’ll have to take Pujols.

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