Monday, February 18, 2013

Target & Avoid Seattle Mariners

Target Kendrys Morales

After missing the entire 2011 season, Morales returned for 134 games in 2012 and hit .273 with 22HR and 73 RBI for the Halos. We all remember his 2009 season in which he hit .306 with 34 HR and 108 RBI while going virtually undrafted that year. I feel this year will be a happy medium between those two seasons. Now fully recovered and possibly moving to the 3 hole in Seattle, with the fences now moved in, look for a better than expected year. I feel Morales is one of my true sleepers this year. On top of all that Morales is in his final year of arbitration and that means he is playing for a monster long term free agent contract. That is huge motivation for players.  The one stat that says production is his 2nd half of 12’ as he hit 14 HR  compared to only 8 in the first half….and he did that in fewer at bats. I will be targeting Morales as a CI in 11-12th rounds and looking for 30HR 90 RBI while hitting .290.


Avoid Justin Smoak

There is not another starting 1B with less intriguing upside than Smoak. I feel he will get a 2 month look at 1B and will not produce then be replaced by Morales full time with Ibanez moving into the DH role. Even with a .250 average he gets moved. So needs to go .265 with 10HR and 35 RBI by Memorial Day. The former 1st rounder has never lived up to his potential and has not hit above .239 in his career. With a career .683 OPS for a first basemen is pathetic…it’s not even high enough to crack the top 15 for second basemen last year. Right now he is being taken in the 22-23 rounds and too me that is a wasted pick. Take a chance on someone with significant upside in those rounds.

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