Sunday, February 17, 2013

Target & Avoid Texas Rangers


Target Lance Berkman

Originally I wanted Nelson Cruz here but with the pending PED investigation I had to look elsewhere. And looking over the Rangers lineup there is no real value to current ADP. So the best value with the most upside is Lance Berkman. The career .296 hitter with a career OPS well over .900 can be had in the 20th round at this time. A couple of ifs here but they could come to fruition. If he hits in the 3 hole and if he can stay healthy he will completely out produce his current draft position. He should be the last 3 hole hitter of all draft boards this year. With only 1B eligibility that is a negative. I see him only in CI but mostly in Util slots this year. Can he gain OF eligibility, yes; especially if Cruz has a suspension. A conservative projection this year would be 20HR and 75 RBI but a healthy Berkman can go 30 and 95 like he did in 140 games for Cardinals in 11’. That is production that can never be had in the 20th+ rounds.


Avoid Mike Olt

Two reasons not to draft Mike Olt; Beltre and Berkman. There is currently to place to play him. In Yahoo he only has 1B eligibility and he will not getting playing time there either. For some reason he is getting drafted in 60% of leagues at MDC which astounds me. That number has to come down in true 1 year leagues.  Does the guy have talent? Of course, as does Profar but the Rangers will have to justify whether the benefits of a limited role in the majors outweigh consistent playing time in the minors for these too. I see both starting in AAA.  I have trouble drafting a prospect with no position or guaranteed playing time…no matter how good he is. Let him rot on someone elses bench.

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