Sunday, March 10, 2013

Target & Avoid Chicago Cubs

Back from a destination wedding (not mine) and ready to write more baseball.

Target Anthony Rizzo

Rizzo has 30/100 potential written all over him. The twice traded Rizzo/Epstein connection will be the center piece in the Cubs lineup.  The prototypical left handed power bat is what every organization covets.  His last year in Triple A for the Padres he only posted a .331 average with 26HR and 101 RBI in only 93 games. Those numbers are beyond gaudy. In 70 games with the I-Cubs, Rizzo hit .342/.405/.696 with 23 homers, 18 doubles and 62 RBI. Then last year he put up 15HR and 48 RBI in just 337 ABs. No reason the 23 year old cannot double those numbers this year.  Nearly all fantasy owners’ count on getting strong power production out of their first baseman and Rizzo can deliver. Rizzo has been climbing steady at MDC from a 70s ADP to his current slot at 52. The current 9th 1B off the board has leapfrogged over Teixeira, Konerko and Freeman in the last couple of weeks. With the top eight 1B coming off the boards in the first 3 rounds, Rizzo is now the top of that next tier. Pairing him as your CI with any of the top 1B gives you a definite .300 average with 60 HR and 220 RBI. A can’t miss and I will be targeting him in all drafts he is available in round 5. Look for a .300 300/100 season unless the Cubs blow up the whole team and are only left with Rizzo and Castro come August. Another bonus is in hitter friendly Wrigley, Rizzo did not match his road numbers last year. Turn that trend around and look out.


Avoid Starlin Castro

I am only avoiding him due to his inflated ADP. Even if he peaks and hits his ceiling the numbers he will put up still do not justify a 3rd round pick for a SS who will go 15 HR 80 RBI with 25 SB. Give me a Jeter at 190 or a Alexi Ramirez at 216. Both can go 15/15 and actually put up more Runs than Castro. He will probably finish as a top 5 SS but being top 5 SS does not necessitate a 3rd round pick. Starlin Castro is a very good and very consistent ballplayer. He’s not a “great” ballplayer. As a Cubs fan I have watched the kid in the field just not zoned in as a star should be. He has come close to being yanked mid inning for his mental lapses. To me, if he has mental lapses in the field ha has them at the plate too. Some of those “lapses” showed on the bases, getting CS 13x last year. That is too many for a player with double digit triple speed. I would like Castro more if he would take more BB but he just refuses, that is something to consider in OPS leagues.

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