Thursday, March 14, 2013

Target & Avoid St. Louis Cardinals


Target Carlos Beltran

According to current ADP Beltran is at pick 112 and the 33rd OF off the board. As a 9th round pick he is an average 2nd and solid 3rd OF and will probably be the last 30HR OF off the board outside Alfonso Soriano just 5 picks later. At 36, with the previous leg problems, his days of 20+ SB are gone but he can still put up double digit swipes. So we have an OF hitting clean-up behind Holliday, has 30HR power, 90+ RBIs penciled in, to go along with 15 SB and a career .282 average you have great value in the 9th round. The OFs going ahead of him such as Hunter, Pagan, and Swisher will not even come close to Beltran’s counting stats. He come into the WBC in great shape for Puerto Rico and continues to hit and has no nagging injuries this spring. Remember last year he had 20HR pre All-Star break while hitting .296 but cooled off down the stretch. All I have to add in contract year…love players on contract years.


Avoid Jason Motte

As of this week he is now the 2nd closer off the board at pick #70. This might be the most inflated ADP of any player I have studied this spring. For a closer of his pedigree to go in the 6th round of a 12 team league is just ludicrous.  Similar closers with the same peripherals are going 100 pick later…as they should. Even with 35 Saves, a 2.50 ERA and a WHIP at 1.00 does not do enough to boost your pitching categories significantly as compared to a closer with 28 saves 3.00 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. It may look like large differences but in a 1500 innings pitched league a closer with 60 innings only counts for 4% of the counting stats. Motte is a rock-solid closer and worthy of being drafted but nowhere near the 6th round. Get Betancourt, Grilli, or Perkins 80-100 pick later.

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