Friday, April 19, 2013

Time to Get Un-Dunn

Has Adam Dunn become un-ownable in all leagues? The defensive shift, incorporated by all opposing teams against Dunn, has made the one time elite OPS hitter virtually worthless. The increase in Ks plays a part as it has yanked down the average over the last couple of years but those that integrate BABIP into analyzing hitters knows that is not the only culprit. Looking back at 2010, his last year with the Nats he had an impressive .329 BABIP, then last year it went down to .254 and to date in 2013 it is and unbelievable .114 with 10% of the season gone.

With 408 career HRs Dunn is used to hitting balls over the head of his competitors. But the way teams pound him inside and put all 4 infielders on the right side of the diamond he can’t buy a single to right anymore. They are throwing him out consistently from short right field. The other night Toronto had 3B Lawrie playing 25 behind the dirt between 1B & 2B.

So why can’t Dunn slap balls to the vacant holes on the left side? He states that one reason is the way they are pitching him with balls diving down at his back foot. The other is his size and plate coverage. Balls that are outside/away to most hitters are middle to middle away to him. So with his plate stance and size the ball only has to be 6-8 inches outside for him to drive that ball to left. And with those pitches he used to take and collect a boat load of walks. He just doesn’t even see those pitches anymore since the shift. And won’t until he makes adjustments.

Dunn did rebound with 41 HRs in 2012 but his BA fell to .204. I figure he is losing at least a hit a week due to the shift if not more. For that reason he will continue to hit at the .200 level. But with him not taking the BB like he did in the past his value in OPB and OPS leagues drops even more. I own Dunn in a few leagues and counted on his OPS in my dynasty league for the last 4 years. Since the walks are vanishing and the shift is on I need to be gone on Dunn or I need to be Un-Dunn.

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