Fix My Team: Keeper Dilema

Jason asks...

Hi Brett,

I was wondering if you guys would help me out on a keeper situation I am up against?

We are a 12 team H2H daily league (R, HR, RBI, AVG, OBP, SB – W, L, K’s, SV, ERA, WHIP) with 6 keepers per year that move up one round each year at the draft.

My 5 Definite:

Clayton Kershaw in the 3rd

Justin Verlander in the 4th

Giancarlo Stanton in the 5th

Stephen Strasburg in the 13th

Mike Trout in the 18th

I have narrowed the last spot to a few players:

Adrian Gonzalez in the 2nd

Aramis Ramirez in the 6th

Kendrys Morales in the 11^th

Wilin Rosario in the 15^th

Leaning towards Aramis but just wanted to get your take.

Thank you!

 

First I just have to say WOW. Your keepers are a true blend of 1^st Round talent, great drafting in the previous years!! The remaining players that you are on the fence with, you have some interesting choices. Gonzalez is always a solid choice at 1B and if your league has qualifier eligibility at 15 games played he is a super option for OF. Curious too if your league has a CI slot. Currently I have A-Gon as the 10^th 1B off the board coming in the 3^rd round. His line this year of 25HR 98 RBI .288 is a little lower than his career averages but he is not in a hitters park and could eventually hit 5^th in that Dodgers line-up which would cost him ABs. So a 2^nd round pick with Gonzalez seems too high this year.

Aramis in the 6^th appears to be the bargain of the draft. I currently have Aramis as the 40^th pick off the board and the 4^th 3B selected behind only Cabrera, Longo and Beltre. What I like about Ramírez the best is he is in a contract year, extra incentive to get one more multiyear deal done before he retires. The drawback is he goes down with fluky injuries every other year. Still I look for him to hit cleanup behind Braun, a huge plus, and put up 29 HR 99 RBI .291 5 SB. Those are great numbers to have as a 6^rd round selection!

Kendrys is moving to a much worse team but he does have a chip on his should after the trade and may want to prove something. The only problem is no one will be on base for him to prove his worth.  With only 1B eligibility and possibly losing time at DH and 1B he may only get 480 ABs this year. Look for 21 HR 85 RBI .271 as his upside, it could be much worse. I am not targeting him at all in any leagues this year.

As you have seen in some of my previous posts I have a hard time committing to a Catcher in Keeper leagues. I drafted Rosario a couple of years ago in a Dynasty League and used him last year but I cut him loose this year, did not keep him. Would I redraft him…absolutely! But there are so many choices to use as valuable Keepers. I do have Rosario as the 7^th C off the board and he could reach 30 HR in Coors but to me he is still a Catcher.

So with that said, I too think you are leaning in the right direction with Aramis as a steal in the 6^th Round. Good Luck and go win your League.

Corey's Take: Tribe, Rox, Tigers

By Corey R. Cunningham

Cleveland Indians

            The Indians are an interesting team on ‘paper’, yet still do not hold any water with the style of baseball they can bring to the field on an everyday basis. New manager Terry Francona will bring some new looks to the Tribe this year, and will be reunited with a Mike Aviles, and Justin Masterson, who he worked with in Boston. Francona will have his work cut out for him the first year or two in Cleveland, but hopefully can turn this young ball club around to be a contender. The weakest link I see in the Tribe is the ‘Pen’. If closer Chris Perez can save 30 games or more this year, the Indians will be the White Sox of 2012, however, if not, look out for a record of about 62-100. Newly acquired RF Nick Swisher should bring about the same bat, but with weaker defense than the previous RF Shin-Soo Choo did. Swisher should hit about 25 HR and have about 88 RBI. The Indians traded Choo to the Reds for young CF Drew Stubbs. Stubbs has 30-30 potential, especially now that he will be hitting in the AL stadiums. This Cleveland team is a speed team, and should be top 5 MLB team in SB this year. Top Prospect Trevor Bauer was also acquired by the Indians in a trade with Arizona, Bauer is an interesting ball player, who works with his own traits; set aside this and let this youngster work his magic, he could work his way up to the No. 2 starter in the near future. Right now, Bauer starts the year No. 5 starter and should see about 10 wins.

 

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies, not much to say here, however, Colorado is just an IR team. Star players going down last year just destroyed this team as well as anyone who had SS Troy Tulowitzki and or OF Carlos Gonzalez. A few players who were added late to anyone’s fantasy team was young catching phenom Wilin Rosario, and 2B Josh Rutledge. Rosario killed the ball last year, knocking out double digit HR, and Rutledge was a late adds to all rosters considering his speed and his OBP. New manager Walt Weiss will more than likely get a home town discount with the team record this year, as I cannot see this team doing any better than last year’s record of below .500. If healthy, Tulowitzki and Gonzalez should hit 25 or more HR, as well as bring in 100 RBI. They will fit nicely in the 3^rd and 4^th slots in the batting order. In Dynasty league and AL/NL leagues I would take the entire Outfield of the Rockies, however, Cargo is a 2^nd round pick, Fowler worked his way up to a 6^th round pick, and Cuddyer is a 9^th round pick due to his multi position eligibility. Tulowitzki should be a 1^st round pick, however, injuries has cost him to bounce back between rounds 1 and 2. I personally have kept C Wilin Rosario as a backup catcher, I just feel it is hard to let him go back into a draft in a Dynasty League format, when he hit .250 last year with 25 HR, and did not get in a full season. Look for the Rockies to go 74-88 this year.

 

Detroit Tigers

 

            This is going to be a World Series favorite this year. They will be getting back DH/C Victor Martinez who was out for all the 2012 season with an injury. His bat will contribute to the lineup as well as the newly acquired RF Torii Hunter. This is a very powerful lineup, who is capable of having 7 players hit 20 HR or more. If you are playing a Dynasty Team League or AL only League, the Tigers have potentially 3 players who could go in the 1^st round. SP Justin Verlander, 3B Miguel Cabrera and 1B Prince Fielder could all land in the 1^st round. Alex Avila should be a steal in all drafts, look for him to go somewhere between rounds 12-14; Avila is a young catcher who can hit .300, 20 HR, 80 RBI, not to bad for a catcher these days. Interesting prospect the Tigers have in the minor leagues is 3B go OF Nick Castellanos, who myself drafted in a Dynasty League minor draft. Nick was drafted as a 3B, however, since acquiring 1B Prince Fielder and moving Cabrera to 3B there is no room for Castellanos. Now, Castellanos is being treated as a LF, with a powerful bat, who can generate very nice power. Castellanos is about a year away with coming to Detroit, but may be a steal in 30 round leagues, and if you can afford to keep him on the roster all year for you Dynasty players. Look for Justin Verlander to lead the league in wins this year, with 22 and win the Cy-young award. Detroit should once again win the AL Central with a record of 92-70.

Fix My Team...Keepers

Josh asks...

 

Hi Brett,

I was wondering if you guys would help me out on a keeper situation I am up against?

We are a 12 team H2H daily league (R, HR, RBI, AVG, OBP, SB – W, L, K’s, SV, ERA, WHIP) with 6 keepers per year that move up a round each year at the draft. I have a ton of late value keepers but am on the fence with my last spot… with having 72 top players already kept our draft tends to have players fly off the board much sooner than they would normally would. We also have a minor league system in which I will have to bring up Manny Machado this year as soon as the draft ends since he had over 130 AB’s last year.

As of now I have:

Carlos Gonzalez in the 8^th round

Jose Bautista in the 14^th round

Adam Wainwright in the 15^th round

Bryce Harper in the 18^th round

David Price in the 19^th round

I have narrowed the last spot to a few players:

Salvador Perez in the 15^th round (late round C with .300 ability)

Jarrod Parker in the 18th round (late value SP with some experience)

Brett Anderson in the 22nd (even later value SP but a small sample size last year, I see this as a gamble with upside)

Alex Rios in the 20^th round (late round OF but to me is an every other year type of guy and my OF is set already)

Michael Morse in the 20^th round (not a fan of him going to SEA, he is an injury risk and again my OF is set)

I am leaning to one (not sure which) of the SP since I traded Gio in the 7^th round and Hamels in the 5^th round for draft picks already… But would like to know if you see something different!

I also have the 1^st overall pick and am getting beat up over saying it will likely be Albert Pujols… Here are the top players (based on ESPN rankings) that are estimated (keepers are not due yet) to be available in the 1^st round.

Albert Pujols

Matt Cain

Cliff Lee

Adrian Beltre

Jay Bruce

Jacoby Ellsbury

Jose Reyes

Adrian Gonzalez

Elvis Andrus

Brandon Phillips

Desmond Jennings

As you can see it starts out with top 10 - 20ish players but is down to top 60 by the 12^th overall pick…

Thanks for your help!!

 

 

It looks as though you have solidified your OF with some top notch players that will put up100+ HR and 300+ RBI this season. Saying that, I would pass on both Rios and Morse as keepers. I have a hard time using a keeper slot on a Catcher. Even though I feel Perez can put up 15HR and hit .300, I have him 15^th on my Catcher depth chart. You should have ample opportunity to pick up V-Mart, Lucroy, Rosario, or Pierzynski in your draft and not have to tie up a keeper slot with an average catcher. That leaves Parker and Anderson. Here are my projections for both in 13’. Parker #2 SP 190IP 13-10 3.75ERA 1.26 WHIP 150Ks. For Anderson #3SP 170IP 12-7 3.29ERA 1.22 WHIP 125Ks. The peripherals seem to balance each other out with one getting more Ks with a slightly higher ERA and nearly similar WHIPS. With all numbers being equal let’s look at some other intangibles. Anderson is coming off TJ surgery but fared well in September and the playoffs which other teams took notice. I feel Anderson is Oakland’s best trade chip and other teams have inquired on him all winter. If Oakland is out of contention in 13’ Anderson will get traded. When that happens he loses the pitcher friendly home park of the A’s. Taking all that into consideration I would go with Parker as my last Keeper.

As for your 1^st selection there are really only two choices I see. That being Pujols and Reyes. You don’t need additional pitching this early and OF and IF players listed are 2-3 rd selections at best. Yes Pujols is getting older but he is still 30HR 100RBI .300 year in and year out. With Reyes it could be a special year in Toronto. I have Reyes pushing Trout for the leader in Runs scored and Reyes should have a little more pop in his bat up North. Reyes line this year should look like 112R 11HR 60RBI 35SB .305. If you feel you can secure a Rizzo, Freeman, or Davis later in your draft for 1B slot I would go with Reyes as your pick. If 1B looks to be sew up you’ll have to take Pujols.

Thank You...50,000 Hits

Just want to thank all that have come by the site over the last 2 years. With some of the comments I have received I feel I have helped many compete and win their leagues. Here at FBV we are always open to questions on how to "Fix Your Team" and give advice/analysis in any form.  Remember you can follow FBV on Twitter, get E-Mail notifications, Follow us and even be a guest writer if you like. We still have a great FBV baseball stat of the week and the wives of a MLB player pics...we get many comments on those ladies. Over the last two years I still get amazed with all the visitors from different countries that come by and check us out. Just this week we have hits from the following:

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Target & Avoid Minnesota Twins

 

Target Ryan Doumit

Come draft day many owners do not target Catchers until late middle rounds unless they want Buster Posey in RD 2. I too usually punt on Catcher early, looking for mostly Power/Speed guys or maybe an Ace in the early rounds. Then when it is time to fill that Catcher slot you should consider Ryan Doumit. He and V-Mart are the only 2 Catchers I want this year in any draft.  

Corey's Take: Pale Hoses & Reds

By Corey R. Cunningham

Chicago White Sox

            The White Sox have had a slow off season thus far, with the biggest news coming early after the 2012 season ended with giving Jake Peavy a new deal to give the starting rotation a solid front line starter. Peavy went 11-12 last year, which was his worst stat of the year. He has the possibility of being a 15-18 game winner, and if they can add to the wins of last year, that is a great milestone to reach. Watch out for the new starting catcher in Tyler Flowers, who hit the market big when he was first drafted in the minor leagues, yet has fallen drastically in the rankings. Not much minor league talent hitting the market this year in Chicago, as to me it is one of the lowest talented minor leagues as a team. Flowers will be left in the FA market for almost all leagues, no need to grab him early, late or at all, he is more defense than offense. Sophomore SP Chris Sale, will be the one young pitcher to target early, as he may go anywhere from round 5-9 in any draft, especially dynasty league drafts. Flowers should have a stat line of .229/10/68, if he keeps his job all year, I will be surprised. Look for Sale and Peavy to be double digit game winners. Predicting Peavy has a line of 17-10, 3.74 ERA, and 179K. Sales’ line should be interesting to predict and I am going with 18-10, 3.35 ERA, and 212K. White sox will miss the playoffs again, with the Tigers winning the AL Central and just not enough room even with the extra wild card slot; record of 80-82.

 

Cincinnati Reds

            The Reds made some good moves this off season, the most important one was acquiring OF Shin-Soo Choo, and letting go OF Drew Stubbs. Both had similarities yet had big differences as well. With Choo, they are in the WIN-NOW mode, as most teams are if they have the talent. Choo will add a much better bat, and plate discipline, where Stubbs was a speed guy in the leadoff spot. With the lineup the Reds will have on opening day, I don’t see a true leadoff hitter, we will have to wait and see what Dusty Baker comes up with. The left side of the INF will be interesting, having Cozart at SS, and Frazier at 3B. Look for Frazier to jump off the draft boards way before Cozart. In some leagues Cozart may not even come off the boards, if he does it’s because of the lineup of the Reds, and his Run possibilities, although I see him as a 8^th of the batting order type guy. Frazier will add to his totals from last year and looks to be more of the younger promising 3B in the league today. He should hit close to 25 HR, and bring in about 85 RBI, as he will more than likely be hitting 6^th in the batting order. Jonathan Broxton will be one of the top closers coming into the season, as the Reds will have a high win total, and with the Reds working Aroldis Chapman into the starting rotation, look for Broxton to be one of the top 10 closers off the board. Not sure what to expect from Chapman this year, if he can have control, he should have 10 wins at least, although I am looking for his WHIP to be high. Reds should win the NL central again, with a record of 95-67.

Target & Avoid Kansas City Royals

 

Target Billy Butler

Butler finally had that breakout year in 12’ where he was able to turn some of those doubles; finally into HR. Butler is the driving force in the emerging Royals offense that is another year older and more mature.

Target & Avoid Cleveland Indians

Target Asdrubal Cabrera

The reason I am targeting Cabrera is a small blurb I heard from Francona after Swisher signed.

Target & Avoid: Chicago White Sox

Target Tyler Flowers

C Tyler Flowers is now the No. 1 catcher in the wake of veteran C A.J. Pierzynski signing with Texas, and the Sox have spent the last month talking up the positives of having Flowers start.

Corey's Take: O's, BoSox & Cubbies

By Corey R. Cunningham

Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles were the biggest surprise team in 2012 to make it to the playoffs after many years of being under .500. The Orioles brought up young minor league talent in SS/3B Manny Machado and SP Dylan Bundy to help them going into the playoffs. Machado played very well, yet Bundy threw minimal innings. Look for Machado to help the ball club in 2013, however, it may take Bundy a couple of months before he gets the call up. Rumor had the O’s trading veteran SS JJ Hardy for pitching talent, yet nothing has surfaced, look for Machado to hold down the ‘hot corner’ going forward. 2B and LF will be the two biggest concerns going forward for the O’s. Can veteran OF Nate McLouth get the job done, and can Nolan Reimold stay healthy is the real questions. Robert Andino found himself on the trading block this off season, and that leaves the door open for the injury-prone Brian Roberts and young 2B Ryan Flaherty to take over the double play duties duo with JJ Hardy. I just do not see Baltimore being the same team as last year, and I am predicting them to finish last in the division with an overall record of 78-84. I see Machado handling the bat well again this year, with pitchers knowing how to pitch to him now, and I see a line of .262/14/69. Machado is going to be a popular pick in the drafts and I am predicting rounds 8-10 in a 10 team league.

 

Boston Red sox

             

            The Red Sox were the most disappointing team of 2012 with one of the higher team salaries in the league. After a big deadline trade with the Dodgers and clearing a huge sum of money, it was very clear the Sox were calling it quits and preparing for a rebound in 2013. The Sox made a lot of off season moves, in the best being Manager John Farrell in my opinion. Farrell is very familiar with the Sox family and team, and everyone is hoping for a positive year. There will not be very many rookies in Beantown this year; however, I am very excited to see what second year man Will Middlebrooks brings to the table, after an injury sidelined him for most of his 2012 season. Middlebrooks is a pure power hitter, and not many have come out of the Sox minor league systems. I am predicting a huge year from the young slugger .284/29/100. Many people see Middlebrooks in the 6^th slot in the batting order, yet I can for-see him moving up to the 5^th slot. The wild card this year for the Red Sox will be the starting rotation. Having your ace in LHP Jon Lester having a plus 4 ERA is not exactly the way you want things, look for Farrell to revamp the starting rotation into something good, and the best way I can predict this is to have all 5 starting pitchers with an ERA below 4. John Lackey should be the 5^th starter, and looking to have a record of at least 12 wins. I am predicting the Red Sox to gain back control of the AL East and come away with the AL East title this year with an overall record of 90-72.

 

Chicago Cubs

            Second year GM Theo Epstein has a lot to prove in Chicago and the fans are anxiously awaiting success. Epstein was famous in Boston for spending money and giving players huge contracts. That wasn’t seen much in the first year as a GM, however, his signing of SP Edwin Jackson 4yr/$52MM proves he is getting back on track with his spending. After he moves OF Alfonso Soriano, which will clear huge cap space, he will be brining the “boom” to Chicago. I am expecting big things from sophomore 1B Anthony Rizzo, .275/25/75. Rizzo has always been a part of GM Theo Epstein’s career. Theo drafted Rizzo while in Boston, yet traded him away in the Adrian Gonzalez deal, and then after moving to Chicago they were reunited once again. Rizzo should be a top 15 1B pick in your Dynasty team league draft, and for a 10 team league, should fall between the 10-14^th rounds. Not much to brag about in the Windy city this year with the Cubbies, it will have to play out on the field with a tough division that they are in, I am not looking for success as I can see a last place finish, with a record of 62-100.

AL East Projected Line-Ups

After tackling the AL East players to target and avoid we should look at this powerful Division’s projected line-ups. Now that most Free Agents have signed and Spring Training is 30 days out most teams will only be tweaking their bullpens and benches until camps open. My projections should be fairly accurate and may help you decide players to draft based on their hitting spot in the line-up.

	BALTIMORE
1	Nate McLouth	OF
2	J.J. Hardy	SS
3	Nick Markakis	OF
4	Adam Jones	OF
5	Matt Wieters	C
6	Chris Davis	1B
7	Wilson Betemit	DH
8	Manny Machado	3B
9	Brian Roberts	2B
	BOSTON
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	OF
2	Shane Victorino	OF
3	Dustin Pedroia	2B
4	David Ortiz	DH
5	Mike Napoli	1B
6	Will Middlebrooks	3B
7	Stephen Drew	SS
8	Jonny Gomes	OF
9	J.Saltalamacchia	C
	NEW YORK
1	Ichiro Suzuki	OF
2	Derek Jeter	SS
3	Robinson Cano	2B
4	Mark Teixeira	1B
5	Curtis Granderson	OF
6	Kevin Youkilis	3B
7	Eduardo Nunez	DH
8	Austin Romine	C
9	Brett Gardner	OF
	TAMPA BAY
1	Desmond Jennings	OF
2	Yunel Escobar	SS
3	Ben Zobrist	2B
4	Evan Longoria	3B
5	Matt Joyce	OF
6	Wil Myers	OF
7	James Loney	1B
8	Ryan Roberts	DH
9	Jose Molina	C
	TORONTO
1	Jose Reyes	OF
2	Melky Cabrera	OF
3	Jose Bautista	OF
4	E.  Encarnacion	DH
5	Brett Lawrie	3B
6	Colby Rasmus	OF
7	Adam Lind	1B
8	J.P. Arencibia	C
9	Emilio Bonifacio	2B