A Diamond in Minnesota

 

 By Corey R. Cunningham

South paw pitcher Scott Diamond has found his comfort zone in Minnesota where he as pitched exceptionally well for the Twins. Diamond who started the year at AAA Rochester going 4-1 with a 2.60 ERA, 34 IP, 35 H, 12 R, 10 ER, 26 K, and a 1.212 WHIP. Diamond was called upon by the Twins and has done an excellent job thus far.

Diamond made his first pitching appearance of the year on May 8th, against the Angels, earning a "W". Diamond went on to win these first 3 appearances facing tough offenses in the Angels, Blue Jays, and the Brewers. Diamond has 9 QS out of 12 this season, with a record of 7-3, a 2.62 ERA, 45 K, 12 BB, and a 1.18 WHIP.

Diamond is not a power pitcher as he has only a season high 7 K in one game this year, and averages just over 3K/G. Scott is no stranger to the pitchers mound in Minnesota as he pitched in 2011, although not quite as well as he has done so far in 2012. He pitched only 39 IP last year, with an ERA above 5, and a WHIP of 1.74, much higher than his of 1.18 this year.

I believe it is safe to add Diamond to your roster, as he has shown he can pitch even though the Twins have less than spectacular starting pitching. It is going to be hard to figure out where Diamond will start in the rotation after the all star break, so be patient to see his upcoming opponents, but with him pitching in a pitchers park at home, it is safe to add him to your roster.

Use Your Head on Headley

A player who could a large bump in Fantasy value if he gets traded would be Chase Headley. His position at the hot corner makes him attractive to many contenders who are weak there at the moment. The White Sox were the first to upgrade the position a few days ago. Teams such as Arizona, Reds with often injured Rolen, Indians, Dodgers, and Tampa Bay while Longoria is on the DL.  He has even played some LF in the past so he could be an option there for a contender too.

Another attractive aspect for MLB teams to pick up Headley is his team friendly contract. At 3.4 million this year and team control for an additional 2 years he is a bargain. The 28 year old is having his best offensive season of his career. Many evaluators, like yours truly, see him being even a more productive and improved hitter if he could get away from the cavernous Petco Park. Going into tonight’s play he is hitting .272 with an OBP of .374, that in 2^nd in the NL only to Wright.

His defense is above average and I see him getting traded sooner than later. If he can go to a hitters park those 19 doubles to date this year could be translated into a few more HR. In a hitters park, with his speed he increases in Fantasy value and turns into a 20/20 guy with 3B eligibility. The only other possible 20/20 players at third this year would be Lawrie in Toronto and Hanley in Miami.  

Hitting in the 3 hole for the  Friars he has produced, but once traded he projects as more of a two hole hitter. My guess would be he lands up the coast for the Dodgers. Though it is tough to trade within your own division, the Dodgers could give up some pitching and Jerry Sands. For Fantasy purposes keep an eye on Headley and listen to the rumors, he could be a big upgrade to your team down the stretch.

Big Ben Tryin' Again

Remember Ben Sheets, I do and I picked him up in one deep league this week. I have been anticipating his first start for the Braves Double A affiliate.  The veteran right hander gave up 2 runs in his first two innings then settled down quite nicely retiring 10 in a row before he was pulled. He ended up striking out 6 and only walked one.

The 4 time All-Star showed signs of dominance once he settled down. Give him credit, he hadn’t pitched in over 2 years. The 33 year old hit 90 mph consistently and his sharp curveball sent many of the Double A youngsters flailing and looking bad. His last pitch was a 91 mph fastball that sent the hitter to the bench.

Sheets is expected to make another start on Monday and should go 5 innings again. As we all know Atlanta is looking for pitching after Beachy was lost for the season with a torn ligament so Sheets just may be their savior come the end of the month.

Even though had multiple All-Star appearances he was never a 14 game winner. A career 3.79 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP is serviceable in most Fantasy formats and his 8K/9 is very much sought after on the waiver wire. If you have space for the next couple of weeks on your bench it would worth a spot to see how Sheets progresses.

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

By Corey R. Cunningham

The Good…

Chicago Cubs 1B, Anthony Rizzo has been a solid bat in the weakened offense in Chicago. Rizzo who has only played in 7 games thus far this season, while dominating AAA pitching is off to a solid start. He is batting .296, with 2 HR, 5 RBI and 4 R. Rizzo has 2 multi hit performances and has hit safely in his first 6 of 7 games, while hitting 2 extra base hits. Anthony has been hitting in the solid No. 3 hole for the Cubs, with former 1B Bryan LaHair sticking it out in the OF. Plenty of talk has aspired about RHP Matt Garza and RHP Ryan Dempster being traded, if so the Cubs GM Theo Epstein are no stranger to acquiring prospects in deals. The prospects acquired from these SP could help this team get younger, with cement players at 1B and SS in Rizzo and Castro.

The Bad...

Boston RedSox 3B, Will Middlebrooks has added a solid bat to the offense in Boston in which is in need of a turn around season, due to their horrific end of the 2011 season. Middlebrooks has a .298 BA, with 10 HR, 37 RBI, 25 R, and 3 SB. Many of you will look at this and ask, "why is this bad?" Middlebrooks who was called up during the injury to Kevin Youkilis, forced Boston management to trade Youkilis, now to see he has had his second issue with the left hamstring. The issue now might cause a stint on the DL, or perhaps not with the All-star break next week, and only 5 more games to play until then. Even worse news, the RedSox do not have another 3B on the roster, yes Nick Punto could play 3B, however its not preferable. My solution is to take Mike Aviles, shift him to 3B, and call up Jose Iglesias.

The Ugly...

Arizona Diamondbacks SP, Trevor Bauer has been awful. Bauer who has now started a total of 2 games for the Diamondbacks has not pitched more than 4 IP in either start. His first start he pitched 4 IP, allowing 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, and 3 K; that is the good start, now the more bad start on Tuesday, Bauer only lasted 3.1 IP, allowing 6 H ,7 R, 6 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, and 4 K to earn his first loss of his career. Bauer now holds a 9.82 ERA, and a 2.45 WHIP. It is yet to be seen if the Diamondbacks will keep Trevor up or send him back down to the Minors, once Joe Saunders is healthy enough to come off the DL.

Evaluating SP by SIERA

SIERA is one of the best saber tools for measuring the true effectiveness of a pitcher. The pitchers with the lowest SIERA tend to be the most valuable in Fantasy. Here is the explanation of SIERA and why you should incorporate it into your Fantasy toolbox for evaluating pitchers. Big thanks to the guys at Fan Graphs for the following info. Lastly, a list the top SIERA pitchers in the Majors.

SIERA attempts to answer the question: what is the underlying skill level of this pitcher? How well did they actually pitch over the past year? Should their ERA have been higher, lower, or was it about right?

But while FIP and xFIP largely ignore balls in play — they focus on strikeouts, walks, and homeruns instead — SIERA adds in complexity in an attempt to more accurately model what makes a pitcher successful. SIERA doesn’t ignore balls in play, but attempts to explain why certain pitchers are more successful at limiting hits and preventing runs. This is the strength of SIERA; while it is only slightly more predictive than xFIP, SIERA tells us more about the how and why of pitching.

Here’s what SIERA tells us:

Strikeouts are good…even better than FIP suggests. High strikeout pitchers generate weaker contact, which means they allow fewer hits (AKA have lower BABIPs) and have lower homerun rates. The same can be said of relievers, as they enter the game for a short period of time and pitch with more intensity.

Also, high strikeout pitchers can increase their groundball rate in double play situations. Situational pitching is a skill for pitchers with dominant stuff.

Walks are bad…but not that bad if you don’t allow many of them. Walks don’t hurt low-walk pitcher nearly as much as they hurt other pitchers, since low-walk pitchers can limit further base runners. Similarly, if a pitcher allows a large amount of base runners, they are more likely to allow a high percentage of those base runners to score.

Balls in play are complicated. In general, groundballs go for hits more often than fly balls (although they don’t result in extra base hits as often). But the higher a pitcher’s groundball rate, the easier it is for their defense to turn those ground balls into outs. In other words, a pitcher with a 55% groundball rate will have a lower BABIP on grounders than a pitcher with a 45% groundball rate. And if a pitcher walks a large number of batters and also has a high groundball rate, their double-play rate will be higher as well.

Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	2.56
R.A. Dickey	Mets	2.82
Zack Greinke	Brewers	2.95
Max Scherzer	Tigers	3.08
Cliff Lee	Phillies	3.11
Matt Cain	Giants	3.21
Chris Sale	White Sox	3.22
Cole Hamels	Phillies	3.25
Justin Verlander	Tigers	3.27
Gio Gonzalez	Nationals	3.28
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	3.28
CC Sabathia	Yankees	3.33
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	3.34
Adam Wainwright	Cardinals	3.34
Colby Lewis	Rangers	3.42
Jason Hammel	Orioles	3.44
David Price	Rays	3.44
James Shields	Rays	3.46
Madiso Bumgarner	Giants	3.46
Joe Blanton	Phillies	3.48
Dillon Gee	Mets	3.49
Lance Lynn	Cardinals	3.52
Jonathon Niese	Mets	3.52
Jake Peavy	White Sox	3.56
Jeff Samardzija	Cubs	3.58
A.J. Burnett	Pirates	3.62
Anibal Sanchez	Marlins	3.66
Matt Garza	Cubs	3.66

Trade Market Starting to Gain Momentum

By Corey R. Cunningham

As the trade deadline for MLB approaches, each and every team already has an idea if they will be selling or buying. For a lot of team, they will be selling to strengthen the farm systems and for some teams will be buying and selling the farm teams.

 

Here is taking a look at what has happened and what rumors are going around the MLB:

 

-           DH Jim Thome has been traded for a pair of Single A prospects. This gives Thome Fantasy relevance once again.

 

-           3B Kevin Youkilis was sent packing and exchanging color of socks for a AAA   prospect and Brent Lillibridge.  Youk’s Fantasy value stays nearly the same. Still an injury risk and not an everyday player. He loses roughly 6 ABs a week. Lillibridge may get some additional playing time now that McDonald was sent down by the BoSox.

 

-         The Yankees picked up Chad Qualls off waivers for a player to be named later or cash considerations. Qualls has no Fantasy value outside of Holds leagues.

 

-         Pirates claimed INF Drew Sutton off waivers from Tampa Bay. No Fantasy relevance.

 

-         The Dodgers have all but pulled the plug on trying to acquire Carlos Lee from Houston in exchange for a RHP prospect or two.

 

-         The Phillies are calling teams about Lefty Cole Hamels availability and are asking for 4-5 prospects in return

 

There will be a lot of movement to come in the next couple of weeks, and prospects have been on the move before, and it will not stop anytime soon. However, an interesting note to consider now; teams who trade for players, I.E. Cole Hamels for the remainder of the season and if Hamels does not resign a contract, that particular team will not only be out Hamels, and the prospects they gave up, they will now be out compensation picks, as part of the new rules going into effect.

 

I do not see the big market teams being huge buyers this trade deadline, as the RedSox and Yankees are trying to get below salary level, and if anything it will be small moves to improve bullpens. I believe the Tigers, and Angels will also fall in the footsteps as the Sox and Yanks due to their payroll spending.

 

The biggest names for the trade market thus far: LHP Cole Hamels, RHP Zack Greinke, OF Shane Victorino and LHP Francisco Liriano.

 

My predictions if all get traded: Hamels to the St. Louis, Greinke to the Atlanta, Victorino to the Indians and Liriano to the Yankees.

Puig in Dodger Blue...Dynasty Pick-Up

The Dodgers made the last splash to the international market recently (before the new CBA took affect) with the signing of Yasiel Puig (pronounced pweeg). The 21 year old 6’ 3” 210 lbs slugger is considered to be more polished than Soler but not as MLB ready as Cespedes at this time.  His time with the Cuban National team as their starting CF is what attracted all the attention from half a dozen MLB teams.

In his last full year of baseball he batted .330 with 17HR, 47 RBI and 78 R in 327 ABs. With those numbers he added an impressive .430 OBP hitting in the top half of the Cuban line-up. Puig who was considered the fastest player in Cuban baseball has not played organized ball in nearly a year and is not yet in baseball shape.

The Dodgers will send him to Rookie ball in Arizona to start. From all the scouting reports I have poured over, the scouts see him as a true 5 tool player who will slide over to LF and become a 20/20 man who will hit .280 year in and year out. The comparisons I have read from scouts say he is a player that reminds them of a young Sammy Sosa, a faster Vlad Guerreo, and a long term Moises Alou type.  He looks to have legitimate opposite field pop and a strong willingness to go that way.

Long term I would compare him to a Choo or Cory Hart type of player. I project him to hit 2^nd in a couple of years behind Dee Gordon and in from of Kemp. The Dodgers could have well over 100 SB from the 1-3 hole hitters as early as 2013. If you can grab him now for your Dynasty League you will not be disappointed.