Audacious Predictions...Mark Em' Down Anyway

World Series: Boston Red Sox over Milwaukee Brewers

NL Bombshell:  Giants finish at.500

AL Bombshell:  Yankees miss playoffs

NL MVP: Ryan Braun

AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez

NL Cy Young: Yovani Gallardo

AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez

NL Rookie of the Year: Brandon Belt

AL Rookie of the Year: Tsuyoshi Nishioka

NL Surprise Player: Bill Hall

AL Surprise Player: Billy Butler

NL Round 1-2 Busts: David Wright

AL Round 1-2 Busts: Nelson Cruz

NL Over Hyped/Under Achiever: Mat Latos

AL Over Hyped/Under Achiever: Elvis Andrus

NL Comeback Player of the year: Chipper Jones

AL Comeback Player of the Year: Magglio Ordóñez

First Manager Fired: Jim Riggleman

Crazy Prediction: 3 way tie in AL Central between White Sox, Twins, and Tigers. Huge controversy on who should play who first and where to decide Division winner.

First Player Arrested after Opening Day: Nyjer Morgan

That's 20 predictions for the season...lets hear yours...get the most right and I will give you credit and let your voice be heard here at the start of next season. You will also be given a moniker of your choice. Submit Predictions Here

Don't Be This Guy

Don't be this guy...use the tools at your disposal!!

Play Ball!!

Today is the day. Opening Day…Spring weather…time to watch Baseball Tonight every night (twice). Time to realize my Cubs will be out of it by Cinco de Mayo.  That time of year to think, talk, write, argue, analyze, criticize, study, evaluate, cheer, moan, cuss, eat, drink and sleep Baseball. I have done what I can to help all of you and I appreciate you stopping by and visiting my humble site. Like I said a couple of months ago, I started this site on a very cold January morning because I missed Baseball. I’ve had a blast researching and posting my thoughts these last couple of months. I enjoy the feedback from all of you and your continued support.  Without all of you this site would be meaningless.  So remember, stay active in your league and use the tools at your disposal…if not my site pick some of your favorites and support them.  

Thanks,

Brett

A big thanks to a great DJ and radio man for use of this pic...Jeff Strange WKHY.

Fix My Team...Returning From Injury

I just did my live draft last night; we have the standard Yahoo structure with only 1 utility spot and no CI or MI positions.  Max of 9 total pitchers.  It is also a keeper league with 2 roster spots for prospects.  I was the 11^th pick.  H2H scoring, 12 categories (Offense – R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP.  Pitching W, L, SV, K, ERA, WHIP)
1)      Alex Rodriguez
2)      Mark Teixeira
3)      Clayton Kershaw
4)      Ian Kinsler
5)      Jacoby Ellsbury (Maybe a reach but I believe he has a huge year)
6)      Mike Stanton
7)      Josh Hamilton (keeper from last year)
8)      Gio Gonzalez
9)      Carlos Gonzalez (keeper from last year)
10)     John Axford
11)     Rafael Furcal
12)     Matt Thornton
13)     John Danks
14)     Stephen Strasburg (I know it was early but the chance to keep him as a 13^th round next year doesn’t scare me; already on my DL)
15)     Jeremy Hellickson (keeper from last year)
16)     Gordon Beckham (insurance for Kinsler)
17)     Ryan Raburn (Actually already traded him for Mike Aviles which is insurance for Furcal)
18)     Mike Trout (#1 prospect couldn’t let him pass)
19)     Kurt Suzuki (my weakest starter IMO)
20)     David Price (keeper from last year)
21)     Alex Gordon
22)     Manny Banuelos (#2 prospect; love his upside)
23)     Lance Berkman (Like that he will hit in the heart of the Cards lineup and get OF elig soon)
24)     Brandon Beachy
I am 1 pitcher short due to taking Strasburg but will put him in 1 of 2 DL spots once I can and pick someone up.  Was thinking of picking up Webb and putting him on the DL and then going after someone like Travis Wood.
So how did I do?  Any advice on what to look to upgrade or players to pick up once Strasburg is moved?  I think the “Fix my Team” is one of the best options on a fantasy site yet!
Thanks!
Jason

After reading your inquiry Jason and studying your draft I will be aligning your team as follows:

C-SUZUKI

1B-TEIXEIRIA

2B-KINSLER

3B-RODRIGUEZ

SS-FURCAL

OF-ELLSBURY, GONZALEZ, HAMILTON, STANTON

UTIL-BERKMAN

SP-KERSHAW, GONZALEZ, PRICE, DANKS, HELLICKSON, BEACHY, STRASSBURG

RP-AXFORD, THORNTON,

BENCH-GORDON, AVILES, BECKHAM

PROSPECTS-TROUT, BANUELOS

Jason you have assembled a very solid team. Your biggest concerns will be durability of a majority of your players. You have a core group that has been often injured. I talked about FURCAL here and the sitting of RODROGUEZ on certain days here. Remember KINSLER, ELLSBURY, HAMILTON, BERKMAN, even GORDON are all coming off serious injuries and should be monitored accordingly. If they can all stay healthy and have career averages across all counting fantasy categories you will be fine offensively. Do not expect Furcal, Kinsler and Ellsbury to run as often in the past. If they do not keep you completive in the SB category, look to acquire any lead-off hitter who is producing in SB and R. I would keep Rajai Davis on your radar and start some dialog with his team’s manager.  Look to insert someone into your UTIL slot if Berkman comes out of the gate slow because LaRussa will not play an aging veteran who is not producing.  Use your UTIL spot to bolster any category you may be struggling with. As for your bench, be ready to kick Alex Gordon to the curb if he shows no power in KC. The Royals have a deep outfield bench and Gordon will lose playing time quick. The advantage to Gordon is his 3B eligibility. He can be inserted into your line-up when A-Rod sits. I would highly recommend signing another C for your bench. Keep an eye on Ianetta in Colorado. Nice source of power at home and a good play when he is hitting in Coors Field. Ryan Doumit may be sliding back into catching in Pittsburgh due to Snyder’s new injury. Remember Doumit has both C and OF eligibility.

Your SP staff is lead by future CY Winner Kershaw. Look for big year here. He has 2 dominate pitches and will get numerous starts against the Pads and Snakes…could be easy 8 Wins there alone.  Gonzalez is getting great reviews from other baseball people outside of Oakland. Another situation where he plays in weak Division and a great pitchers park.  Danks will get a ton of R support that he has lacked in the past and could vault to the ace of the White Sox staff. Price and Hellickson both pitch in the feared AL EAST as you know. They have shown excellent peripheral numbers fantasy wise but I still shy away from SP in that division. I would stream those two against any teams besides the Yanks and Red Sox. Don’t let those two teams blow up your ERA if you do not need too.

If you can swing an additional RP I would go for it. Do not rely on just being in the middle of the road and hoping to complete in Saves when you could dominate the league. I would put together a package to move Strasburg for elite Closer, a lead-off hitter with speed or a multi-position guy that can fill any voids due to injury.  Yes, Strasburg is elite but you will get no production this year and they will not rush him back next year. Look to move him now and go for this year’s title. With your limited bench and DL space you may be placing injured players on your bench if Strasburg blocks your DL spot.

Thanks for the question…now go win your league.

Fix My Team...Needs A Closer

I just did my live draft last night; I noticed we had similar draft strategies in a few of your previous articles so I am curious to see your opinions.  We have the standard Yahoo structure with only 1 utility spot and no CI or MI positions.  Max of 9 total pitchers.  It is also a keeper league with 2 roster spots for prospects.  I was the 7^th pick.  H2H scoring, 12 categories (Offense – R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP.  Pitching W, L, SV, K, ERA, WHIP)
1)      Troy Tulowitzki (keeper from last year)
2)      Kevin Youkilis
3)      Dan Uggla
4)      Alex Rios (may have been a reach)
5)      Cole Hamels
6)      Yovani Gallardo
7)      Roy Oswalt
8)      Brett Gardner (small reach but had to have him)
9)      Shaun Marcum
10)     Jose Valverde
11)     Tim Hudson
12)     Brad Lidge
13)     Jorge Posada
14)     Brandon Morrow (keeper from last year)
15)     Jose Bautista (keeper from last year)
16)     Adam Wainwright (Strasberg went 3 picks in front of me and felt my P was solid so far so I could handle the one less drafted position player until I can put him on the DL.)
17)     Bryce Harper (also may have went early but Trout was already taken and a run was imminent)
18)     Austin Jackson
19)     Marco Scutaro
20)     Michael Morse
21)     Derek Holland
22)     Magglio Ordonez
23)     Dustin Ackley
24)     Jarrod Saltamacchia
I am 1 position player short due to taking Wainwright but will put him in 1 of 2 DL spots once I can and pick someone up. 
So how did I do?  Only my 2^nd year playing Fantasy Baseball but spent a lot of time in the off season on websites like yours and felt much better going into this draft!  Any advice on what to look to upgrade or players to pick up once Wainwright is moved?  I think the “Fix my Team” is one of the best options on a fantasy site yet!
Please reply all so this goes to my personal email also.
Thanks!
Josh

After reading your inquiry and studying your draft I will be aligning your team as follows:

C-POSADA

1B-YOUK

2B-UGGLA

3B-BAUTISTA

SS-TULO

OF-RIOS, JACKSON.MAGGS, GRADNER

UTIL-MORSE

SP-MORROW, HAMELS, GALLARDO, OSWALT, MARCUM, HUDSON, HOLLAND, WAINRIGHT

RP-VALVERDE, LIDGE

BENCH-SALTY, SUCTURO

PROSPECTS-HARPER, ACKLEY

By far your strongest asset is your SP staff. With a majority of your staff being aces from the NL, you will dominate your league in ERA, be among the leaders in Ks and also WHIP.  Be aware that Morrow will start the season on the DL and of course Wainright’s out for the season.  With only 2 DL spots available you may want to trade off Wainright to a team without a good SP keeper for next year.  Look for a front line closer. With that said let’s examine your RP.  You need help quick. Lidge will start the season on the DL and may not be back for awhile. That leaves you with only the above average Valverde. Stash Lidge on the DL and pick up Jose Contreras for the time being. You do not want to get buried in Saves so early in the year. Check your waiver wire for opening day closers that may still be available. Others to consider are Brandon League in Seattle, Sergio Romo in SF if Wilson doesn’t break camp for opening day and Jon Rauch until Toronto decides who will close. Those 3 can all be fill-ins for the time being. With Lidge going to the DL you need 2 more RP.

From the offensive side we will take it position by position. At C Posada is a great pick. He will DH a majority of the time and may see the most ABs he has seen in a few years. One trick I like to have in Daily Leagues is to have my main C on an East coast team so you know early in the night if he is starting. If not, you plug in your West coast back-up. This way you never lose games at the C position like most teams do.  At 1B I am guessing many teams used the Keepers at this position. Youk isn’t a top line power 1B but he is more than serviceable. He may lose a few ABs this year batting 5^th or 6^th but will still produce. Going around the horn, you have the best power hitting player at 2B in the NL, no problems there unless he reverts back to hitting 240 for average. With Bautista at 3B do not expect the 54 HR season again. If he can get over 30 you are still solid. Tulo is arguably the best SS in baseball. You have a potential 110-140 HR infield with 400+ RBI. No speed here but that’s not a problem.

Your OF is anchored by one of my favorites in Rios. He can be one of the few 25/25 guys this year, plus he has Dunn and Konerko hitting behind him. Expect a great year from Rios. Next is Jackson; Lots and lots of Runs here plus 30 SB potential. If he can cut down on his strike outs he will be All-Star caliber. I own both Rios and Jackson on many teams this year. Gardner will be the speed guy you need to complete in SB all year, look for 50+ SB and 100R if he bats lead-off. Maggs is getting older but is a career .304 hitter. If he stays healthy could have a big year for a 37 year old. 

My take is you are above average in HR and RBI…not elite but up in the pack. Nice balance of batting averages no real killer but not a lot over 300 either.  You did secure one of the top 3 base stealers in the game so you are solid in that category. I really like the Run potential of this team. You have players from teams that are going to score as often as Charlie Sheen.

I plugged Morse into your U spot. Even though he is having a huge Spring I am not sold on him. Scutaro on your bench does nothing for me and could be out of a job in 2 months.  Let Morse establish himself and then move him for a player that can help your weakest category come Memorial Day. I would drop Scutaro and pick up a player with multi-multi-position eligibility. Someone like Infante, Uribe, Huff, or Sean Rodriguez.

Your biggest weakness is your Closer situation followed by a bench without much position flexibility. In daily leagues you want flex players that can be inserted into any hole in your line up if someone has the night off. Do not be afraid to trade away one of your SP for a package consisting of an elite Closer and maybe a Ben Zobrist type…a position player who will play every day with multi-position eligibility. One more piece of advice, do not hesitate to trade away one of your SP, this could free up room and you could still stream a 2 start SP each week from the wire.

Thanks for the question Josh…now go win your league.

Best Of The Rest...AL 5th SP

This group consists of former aces, guys with a last chance, and hyped rookies. Many of the guys are definitely worth a flier or spot starts in the right match-ups.  Remember these guys may not get used until week 2 of the season or even a bit later, but they do have fantasy relevance. Some are owned as high as 85% (Hellickson) some middle of the road 55% (Peavy), and some rooks 22% (Pineda). Keep these guys on your radar, so come early May, you can pounce when needed.

AL EAST

Freddy Garcia –New York

Chris Tillman-Baltimore

Daisuke Matsuzaka -Boston

Jeremy Hellickson –Tampa Bay

Kyle Drabek -Toronto

AL CENTRAL

Jake Peavy -Chicago

Josh Tomlin -Cleveland

Brad Penny -Detroit

Scott Baker -Minnesota

Vin Mazzaro –Kansas City

AL WEST

Derek Holland - Texas

Michael Pineda -Seattle

Brandon McCarthy -Oakland

Scott Kazmir –Anaheim

Best Of The Rest...NL 5th SP

I posted earlier this week all the players starting the season on the DL. Many of you who own the Greinkes and Latos’ of the world should know about available, viable options to replace your aces. The 5^th starters for each team are available for fill- in duty until your aces return. When I talk about a fifth starter, I mean the guy taking the fifth turn in the rotation. The guy who gets bumped because of off days and maybe has to move up a spot or two because of injuries and who probably won’t pitch in the postseason if everyone’s healthy. Most of these players will not get a stat until week two (game 9) on most rosters. So look for the right match-up if you plan to use a 5^th SP in the early going. There are some interesting names to consider here and others to completely avoid.

NL CENTRAL

Nelson Figueroa Houston

Charlie Morton Pittsburgh

Kyle McClellan St. Louis

 Chris Narveson Milwaukee

 Andrew Cashner Chicago

Mike Leake Cincinnati

NL EAST

 Tom Gorzleanny Washington

 Brandon Beachy Atlanta

Chris Volstad Florida

 Joe Blanton Philadelphia

 Chris Capuano New York

NL WEST

Esmil Rogers Colorado

Wade LeBlanc  San Diego

 Aaron Heilman Arizona

Madison Bumgarner San Francisco

Jon Garland Los Angeles

Best Of The Rest...Missing Pieces

Yesterday we revealed everyone that will be starting the season on the DL. Today we look at replacements for your players heading to the pines for a 15 day stint. These players are all starters with no real competition for playing time. Some will be batting lead-off, some batting clean-up, some with multi position eligibility. They all can be contributors in at least one category for your fantasy teams. The best part these players are only owned in 10%-35% of all Yahoo leagues. So when Grady starts the season on the DL grab Bourjols for some quick cheap steals, when Utley is still hurting slide in Peralta for HR or former BA Champ Sanchez for support. Here are the best of the rest.

CATCHER
Russell Martin
J.P. Arencibia
Chris Iannetta
Yadier Molina
A.J. Pierzynski
INFIELDER ELIGIBILITY
Reid Brignac
Jhonny Peralta
Mitch Moreland
Michael Morse
Alcides Escobar
Ryan Theriot
Danny Valencia
Justin Smoak
Chase Headley
Chris Johnson
Alex Gordon
J.J. Hardy
Matt LaPorta
Erick Aybar
Freddy Sánchez
Kila Ka'aihue
Edwin Encarnación
Jason Bartlett
Will Venable
OUTFIELD ELIGIBILITY
Matt LaPorta
Alex Gordon
Johnny Damon
Nate McLouth
Jonny Gomes
Josh Willingham
J.D. Drew
Peter Bourjos
David DeJesús
Tyler Colvin
Hideki Matsui
David Murphy
UTILITY
Jim Thome

The LD (Low Down) on the DL



Only way Utley will be taking gounders in April



With the season just a week away, teams have to come to terms with who they will be placing on the DL to start the season. This information is as important to the MLB team as it is to the Fantasy Manager. Being prepared for this information gives the Fantasy Manager time to scoop up replacements that are currently on waivers. That frenzy will begin early next week. I wish I had an exact time that the Fantasy Sites will label a player on the DL. Believe me, I have tried to gather that info from many sources but it’s like a National Security secret for some reason. Anyway, be prepared to pounce once it is official. I have gathered all the players that will/could…but mostly will start the season on the DL. One that surprised me was Hellickson…saw it in the St. Pete Times.  I’m sure this is just some type of gamesmanship, or management ploy to save Hellickson until the Rays 9^th game of the season when they actually need a 5^th starter . Still it is info you need. I have listed all players that are expected to return sometime this season. Omitted are the Wainright’s and Strasburg’s who had TJ surgery. Here is your info.

PITCHERS:

Scott Feldman

Nate Robertson

David Aardsma

Joe Beimel

Rich Harden

Johan Santana

Manny Parra

Joel Pineiro

Joe Thatcher

Jake Peavy

Scott Olsen

JP Howell

Jeremy Hellickson

Scott Downs

Zach Duke

Justin Duchscherer

Aaron Cook

Wandy Rodriguez

Jason Castro

Johnny Cueto

Brandon Webb

Andrew Bailey

Shaun Marcum

Vincent Padilla

Zack Greinke

Jon Garland

Frank Francisco

Brandon Morrow

Brian Wilson

Jason Donald

CATCHERS:

Jon Jaso

Miguel Olivo

Jason Kendall

Francisco Cervelli

Jonathan Lucroy

INFIELDERS:

Kendrys Morales

Chase Utley

Derrek Lee

Kyle Blanks

Brian Roberts

Casey Blake

Carlos Guillen

Jeff Keppinger

Mat Gamel

Justin Morneau

Adam Rosales

Nick Punto

Aaron Hill

OUTFIELDERS:

Carlos Beltran

Curtis Granderson

Cody Ross

Grady Sizemore

Corey Hart

Domonic Brown

Scott Podsednik