Wednesday, March 2, 2011

And Now....Batting 3rd...

When drafting a team I specifically target the 3 hole hitters as often as possible. I use batting order position as a deciding factor when rounding out my team. For me, the higher the player is in the order the better. Any manager knows you can never have too many three and four hole hitters when building your fantasy team.  Typically the greatest hitters, for a combination of power and OBP, on any team bats third. Here is the average stats of three hole hitters over the last 3 years. AB634  BA.287  R100  H182  HR25  RBI98 I would take that contribution from any player I drafted. For most 3 hole hitters we only target the 4 standard hitting categories, not SB. Any SBs are considered gravy. We could add in OPB or OPS for these hitters as some leagues are going too.
I wanted to see the difference in ADP between MDC (Mock Draft Central) and Yahoo for all my projected 3 hole hitters. I wanted to see where value could be found between the two sites. I feel my projections and values are much more in line with MDC than Yahoo. This is because MDC gets a much more diverse pool of drafters than Yahoo. I broke these hitters into groups of 10 to be analyzed.
From the first 10 players, really no surprises in draft position or value that I see. All are solid and worth their draft position. Only Teixeira  seems to dropping in Yahoo compared to MDC. You really cannot go wrong with Teixeira, Hamilton, or Crawford in picks 12-18.
In the second 10 we start to see some discrepancies. Some players due to injury, some due to hype. Mauer is starting to drop because of his knees. Personally I still cannot pull the trigger on any catcher in the top 3 rounds. Choo, Bautista, Rios, Butler, and Pence all have a  +11 or greater differential. The true value here is the OF all are more than capable of being 20/20 guys. I like Choo a lot this year but I like Rios 3 round later in Yahoo. Of this bunch grab Rios. I have Rios on both teams I have drafted this year. My last draft I selected him with the next to last pick of the 6th round…Pence was drafted with the next pick.
Now for the last group. I highly recommend grabbing these guys to round out your bench or as CI and MI slots. I am high on all these guys but Chipper…just way too fragile. Look at some of these values. Target all of the bargains…Huff with multi position eligibility, Drew a SS with 20 HR potential, Maggs a past top 30 player, Lee will be revitalized in Baltimore, Gutierrez as your last draft pick, or my favorite from this bunch…Neil Walker. Walker has both 2B and 3B eligibility. Oh, did I mention….THEY ARE ALL BATTING 3RD!!!

TEAM
PLAYER
MDC
YAHOO
STL
1B Albert Pujols
1
1
FLA
SS Hanley Ramirez
2
2
TB
 3B Evan Longoria
5
6
COL
RF Carlos Gonzalez
6
9
CIN
1B Joey Votto
7
7
MIL
LF Ryan Braun
9
9
NYM
3B David Wright
10
14
NYY
 1B Mark Teixeira
12
19
TEX
 LF Josh Hamilton
13
18
BOS
 LF Carl Crawford
15
13             
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
PHI
2B Chase Utley
18
16
MIN
 C Joe Mauer
19
27
WAS
3B Ryan Zimmerman
22
23
LAD
CF Matt Kemp
24
27
CLE
 RF Shin-Soo Choo
25
36
TOR
 3B Jose Bautista
46
35
CWS
 CF Alex Rios
58
72
ANA
 1B Kendry Morales
60
60
HOU
RF Hunter Pence
80
66
KC
 DH Billy Butler
82
67
_____
CHC
3B Aramis Ramirez
100
79
SF
1B Aubrey Huff
108
136
ARI
SS Stephen Drew
120
164
ATL
3B Chipper Jones
182
227
DET
 RF Magglio Ordonez
197
231
BAL
 1B Derrek Lee
226
213
SEA
 CF Franklin Gutierrez
255
258
SD
2B Orlando Hudson
268
222
PIT
2B Neil Walker
278
171
OAK
 LF Josh Willingham
309
252

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