Value At Each Category...The Hitters

With the start of the 2011Major League Baseball season set to begin in a few weeks, most of us are in the midst of preparing for our fantasy baseball drafts. When rounding out your team, some of your late round picks can propel you to a championship. As you fill your utility slot and bench look to target categories that you know your team has particular weaknesses. The players below have value as an everyday position player that can boost certain categories in standard 5x5 leagues. They all have an ADP over 200 so we are looking for low risk high reward. I have given you a player in both leagues that can help you in the hitting categories. I do not consider these players sleepers but rather true value at their current ADP.

Home Runs

NL Juan Uribe ADP 279: Not only does Uribe have 3 position eligibility (SS, 2B, 3B), he has hit 20+ HR in four of his MLB seasons. You have to love the versatility and power from a pick this late.

AL Luke Scott ADP 276: He too gives you multi position ability at 1B and OF. He has hit over 23 HR each of the last 3 seasons while only playing on average 130 games. At this point he has the everyday LF gig and should hit in the middle of the lineup. If he can play 150 games he could be near 30 HR.

Runs

NL Marlon Byrd ADP 318: An All-Star last year who can hit anywhere in the line-up. He played in 152 games last year and has no competition for playing time this year. Should put up 80+ runs again.

AL Austin Jackson ADP 308: Just a great rookie campaign of over 100R scored. This year he has bulked up, lost weight and has worked with coaches to cut down his strike outs. He will bat lead-off for Motown this year.

RBI

NL James Loney ADP 222: The knock on Loney is his lack of power at a power rich position. Though true, he still has averaged 90 RBI over the last three years.  You could much worse with your 18^th pick.

AL Hidecki Matsui ADP 313: Godzilla has moved to a new team in Oakland. He may be the lowest drafted clean-up hitter in all of Fantasy Baseball. I do expect a regression in HR due to his new home field but remember this slugger has put up over 90 RBI 5 times in his 8 year career.

BA

NL Omar Infante ADP 236: Infante is a player I have drafted in all three drafts I have participated in. He has 4 position eligibility (2B, SS, 3B, and OF) which is golden in H2H daily leagues. He will be hitting lead-off for the Fish and coming off a season where he hit 321. It was his 2^nd consecutive season over 300.

AL Davis DeJesus ADP 332: DeJesus is now in Oakland and has been given the 3 hole to hit out of to start the season.  Coming off a season where he hit 318 DeJesus is a career 290 hitter. The spacious Coliseum will only contribute to his continue success.

Value At Each Category...The SP

With the start of the 2011Major League Baseball season set to begin in a few weeks, most of us are in the midst of preparing for our fantasy baseball drafts. When rounding out your team, some of your late round picks can propel you to a championship. As you fill your final pitcher slots and bench look to target categories that you know your team has particular weaknesses. The players below have value as SP that can boost certain categories in standard 5x5 leagues. They all have a Yahoo default ranking over 200, so we are looking at low risk high reward. I have given you a SP in both leagues that can help you in the pitching categories. I do not consider these players sleepers but rather true value at their current ADP.

Wins

NL Bronson Arroyo (276): One of least likely pitchers that come to mind for putting up consistent Wins but he has 47 wins in the last 3 years. He pitches in a weak division for a team that can put up runs. That combo = Wins…they may be ugly at times but still wins.

AL CJ Wilson (202): The 5 year RP moved into the rotation last year and posted 15 wins in a pitcher friendly AL West Division. He will actually contribute across the board in the other pitching stats.

Ks

NL Brett Myers (207): Last year was the 3^rd time Myers put up over 180K in a season. Pitching in the free swinging NL Central he could lead this Division in punch-outs.

AL Edwin Jackson (308): Pitching on one of the best staffs in baseball he lead the team in Ks. I expect him to learn from the likes of Peavy and Buehrle on this team. Could top 200K this year.

ERA

NL RA Dickey (329): A former 1^st round selection it took him a decade to finally put it all together. Coming off last year’s 2.84 ERA, he will be one of the work horses for the Mets this year.

AL Justin Duchscherer (479): A career 3.13 ERA sounds almost too good to be true but that is what he brings to the Orioles after his hip injury last year. Though he will have the 5^th rotation spot, he is worth storing away until he will be fully used come May or one of your first waiver claims if you have an ace go down to injury.

WHIP

NL Chris Young (415): Since he was injured last year he is under everyone’s radar. Three times in his seven year career he’s had a WHIP under 1.13.

AL Dallas Braden (332): Braden finished last year off with 1.16 Whip to lead the A’s staff. He only allowed 43 walks in almost 200 IP. He also had that perfect game last year.

Contract Year Players

Many players will be free agents after the 2011 season. The biggest of course is Pujols. Even if he has the worst year of his career he will still be offered a record contract. The rest on this list are players coming off injuries, players with something to prove and others possibly on the last year of their career.  These players could provide some hidden value come draft day. We have all seen it before how players rise to the occasion in a contract year so they can be rewarded with that massive multiyear deal. I have chosen a player from every position to spotlight.

Prince Fielder MIL 1B APD 18: Though I do not target players that cant hit their weight for average Fielder has the most to prove this year. He will arguably the best free agent on the not market not named Albert. I do look for an increase in his number as long as he does not start to press and if McGehee can continue to protect him.

Kelly Johnson ARZ 2B ADP 97: Johnson should be the frontrunner of all free agents at 2B after Weeks signed an extension. I see no regression from last year but he will be playing a bad D’Backs team. He will consistently bat in the 2, 3 or 4 holes are year and can come close to 15SB.

Jose Reyes NYM SS ADP 24: Reyes needs to increase his OBP this year if they want to bat him lead-off. Do not count on the monster SB like in previous years for this often injured SS. He will definitely be trade bait sooner than later if the Mets fall out of contention early. There is a reason he has not been signed to an extension. Best case scenario he gets moved. I see the Reds trading some of their young pitching to land Reyes as their leadoff hitter down the stretch.

Aramis Ramirez CHC 3B ADP 71: A fan favorite in Wrigley but often injured and aging. Still serviceable and productive but his best years are behind him.

Jason Kendall KC C ADP 825: Do not draft Kendall due to his injury. Keep him on your radar in June if you need a back-up catcher. Kendall is only a handful of SB away from being the all-time leader in swipes for a catcher. It could be something KC could use a PR campaign to push him over the mark. He needs 22 to tie the mark. He could get you 10-15 this year.

Carlos Beltran NYM OF ADP 126: I do not see Beltran as anywhere near his ADP. His agent Scott Boras has convinced him to be a good soldier and move to RF this year. Coming off back to back injury plagued seasons he wants to showcase himself for one last multi-year deal. Do not expect him to run like the old days and at 34 his power should be in decline too. I expect more injuries and less than 100 games once again but an agents who will stating all his injuries will be day to day when we all have learned that translates, in Beltran’s case to month to month.

David DeJesus OAK OF ADP 228: DeJesus is someone I just picked up with my last pick in a draft. The only thing I liked about him is that he has an everyday job now and will hit in Oakland’s 2 hole with no real competition. He never has excelled an any one category but I am thinking upside and contract year. He is an early insurance policy for my Sizemore pick for the month of April.

Juan Pierre CWS OF ADP 146: My love for Pierre is growing more and more after I saw a clip of his early morning workouts. He is at the park every morning at  545 am. He cant wait to hit in front of Rios, Dunn, and Konerko. He stated he thinks he will improve on last years 68 SB and 96 R. If he can go 75 SB and 120 R look for the Chi Sox to run away with the AL Central.

Mark Buehrle CWS SP ADP 536: Buehrle has hinted at retirement but look for the Cardinals to make a push for him especially if Peavy produces this year. Buehrle lives just minutes from Busch Stadium. A move to the NL Central will boost his value and even hold off his retirement talk.

Edwin Jackson CWS SP ADP 271: Jackson pitched very well at Cellular Field and also in his limited work against the other AL Central teams. There were times he was very good like the no-no against the Rays and then very bad like the 10ER he gave up in Coors Field. A spot starter against the right matchups could benefit your fantasy team.

Jonathan Papelbon BOS RP ADP 95: As elite closer over the last few years, he has helped many a fantasy team. There is a reason Boston has not extended him or reasons; Bard and Jenks. Do not draft Paplebon at his current position, he will be moved for whatever piece Boston needs come the deadline. If you are in a dynasty team ride him early then get what you can because he may not be closing after this season.

Jose Valverde DET RP ADP 157: Another horse to ride until Detroit falls out of contention. He may not be closing next year.

And Now....Batting 3rd...

When drafting a team I specifically target the 3 hole hitters as often as possible. I use batting order position as a deciding factor when rounding out my team. For me, the higher the player is in the order the better. Any manager knows you can never have too many three and four hole hitters when building your fantasy team.  Typically the greatest hitters, for a combination of power and OBP, on any team bats third. Here is the average stats of three hole hitters over the last 3 years. AB634  BA.287  R100  H182  HR25  RBI98 I would take that contribution from any player I drafted. For most 3 hole hitters we only target the 4 standard hitting categories, not SB. Any SBs are considered gravy. We could add in OPB or OPS for these hitters as some leagues are going too.

I wanted to see the difference in ADP between MDC (Mock Draft Central) and Yahoo for all my projected 3 hole hitters. I wanted to see where value could be found between the two sites. I feel my projections and values are much more in line with MDC than Yahoo. This is because MDC gets a much more diverse pool of drafters than Yahoo. I broke these hitters into groups of 10 to be analyzed.

From the first 10 players, really no surprises in draft position or value that I see. All are solid and worth their draft position. Only Teixeira  seems to dropping in Yahoo compared to MDC. You really cannot go wrong with Teixeira, Hamilton, or Crawford in picks 12-18.

In the second 10 we start to see some discrepancies. Some players due to injury, some due to hype. Mauer is starting to drop because of his knees. Personally I still cannot pull the trigger on any catcher in the top 3 rounds. Choo, Bautista, Rios, Butler, and Pence all have a  +11 or greater differential. The true value here is the OF all are more than capable of being 20/20 guys. I like Choo a lot this year but I like Rios 3 round later in Yahoo. Of this bunch grab Rios. I have Rios on both teams I have drafted this year. My last draft I selected him with the next to last pick of the 6^th round…Pence was drafted with the next pick.

Now for the last group. I highly recommend grabbing these guys to round out your bench or as CI and MI slots. I am high on all these guys but Chipper…just way too fragile. Look at some of these values. Target all of the bargains…Huff with multi position eligibility, Drew a SS with 20 HR potential, Maggs a past top 30 player, Lee will be revitalized in Baltimore, Gutierrez as your last draft pick, or my favorite from this bunch…Neil Walker. Walker has both 2B and 3B eligibility. Oh, did I mention….THEY ARE ALL BATTING 3^RD!!!

TEAM	PLAYER	MDC	YAHOO
STL	1B Albert Pujols	1	1
FLA	SS Hanley Ramirez	2	2
TB	3B Evan Longoria	5	6
COL	RF Carlos Gonzalez	6	9
CIN	1B Joey Votto	7	7
MIL	LF Ryan Braun	9	9
NYM	3B David Wright	10	14
NYY	1B Mark Teixeira	12	19
TEX	LF Josh Hamilton	13	18
BOS	LF Carl Crawford	15	13
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­ PHI	2B Chase Utley	18	16
MIN	C Joe Mauer	19	27
WAS	3B Ryan Zimmerman	22	23
LAD	CF Matt Kemp	24	27
CLE	RF Shin-Soo Choo	25	36
TOR	3B Jose Bautista	46	35
CWS	CF Alex Rios	58	72
ANA	1B Kendry Morales	60	60
HOU	RF Hunter Pence	80	66
KC	DH Billy Butler	82	67
_____ CHC	3B Aramis Ramirez	100	79
SF	1B Aubrey Huff	108	136
ARI	SS Stephen Drew	120	164
ATL	3B Chipper Jones	182	227
DET	RF Magglio Ordonez	197	231
BAL	1B Derrek Lee	226	213
SEA	CF Franklin Gutierrez	255	258
SD	2B Orlando Hudson	268	222
PIT	2B Neil Walker	278	171
OAK	LF Josh Willingham	309	252