Fix My Team...The Incomplete Trade Dilemma

 Here is what Scooooot writes:

Trade help! Shane Victorino for Ryan Howard should I do it?

By scoooot on Fix My Team...Trade Dilema on 6/29/11

Well Scoooty, it would help to know what side of the trade you are on and who else is on your team. It would also help to know where you stand in the rankings of your league. Are you down in SBs? Does your AVG rank near the bottom? Do you need a spike in HR for the 2^nd half? These are all pretty fair questions to have answered when you ask about a trade dilemma. So I say yeah…go for it, trade either player you own for the other…then maybe how bout’ a Fresca? Huh...Huh?

The BABIP SP Grab

With the current league average for BABIP in the low .290s for SPs these 20 listed pitchers have seen the worst luck of all starting pitchers when the baseball has been put into play. BABIP is a great way to see if a pitcher has an artificially inflated (or deflated) ERA during, before, or after a season. Just compare the players BABIP to the league average BABIP and you can see whether or not they're due for a regression. With the half way mark approaching this week, these are the SPs I would be targeting for the 2^nd half. They are all due to improve their stats and therefore help you win your league. You should attempt to grab at least one of the listed players and their value is currently lower than when drafted.

Edwin Jackson	0.347
MadisonBumgarner	0.337
Ryan Dempster	0.334
Chad Billingsley	0.334
Jake Westbrook	0.333
Brian Duensing	0.325
Jo-Jo Reyes	0.324
Ricky Nolasco	0.324
Chris Carpenter	0.323
Travis Wood	0.323
Charlie Morton	0.322
Derek Holland	0.322
Chris Capuano	0.32
Mat Latos	0.319
Javier Vazquez	0.319
Max Scherzer	0.318
Matt Garza	0.318
Yovani Gallardo	0.317
Rick Porcello	0.315
James McDonald	0.314

A Little Help From A Weak Position

After the Indians free fall over the last 30 days it was time to make a move. They called up their former 1^st round draft pick Lonnie Chisenhall. The lefty had modest numbers while in AAA Columbus. He batted .265 with an OPS of .779 in 65 games.

For fantasy owners we know the difficulties in finding quality 3B this year. It is by far the toughest position to get solid production from everyday. Currently on 12 players rank in the top 130 that qualify for 3B, of those that qualify only 3 are actually playing 3B currently. Chisenhall may be the next flavor of the month and struggle early on but he is a long-term keeper at the position.

In his debut he went 2 for 4 with a double and an RBI. I project him to get most of the starts at 3B going forward. His problem will be hitting left hander’s, like most rookies. His slash line against lefties in the minors is less than poor.  He could only muster a .200 BA with a .360 slug%. He is simply not experienced enough to handle top lefty’s at his young age of 22. The tribe will still run him out there against every righty but be lifted in tight games for the better glove of Hannahan or in double switches during interleague. He will bat in the bottom third of the order and be slightly more usable than the current Hannahan.

Do not expect anything more this year than an average at best hitter at 3B, think .255 BA. Getting to 10HR would be the ceiling with 50 RBI.  Not much speed so any SB is gravy. In daily leagues definitely get him your line-up against all righties but have a contingency plan against the lefties.  He should definitely be owned in all Dynasty Leagues and probably is.

Dynasty League Prospect Getting The Call-Up In Oakland

The Oakland Athletics have put outfielder Josh Willingham on the 15-day disabled list because of a strained left Achilles and promoted first baseman-outfielder Chris Carter from the minors. Carter was hitting .235 with five homers and 21 RBIs at Triple-A Sacramento. He made his major league debut last year and started out 0 for 33 before hitting three home runs. He was currently listed as the 43^rd best ranked prospect in the minors but Oakland’s top prospect. Chris Carter is an all-or-nothing, power hitting first baseman. He's often confused with the other first base prospect named Chris Carter. Oakland's version is the bigger, stronger, younger and much more right-handed version. Consider him a right handed Ryan Howard. With the A’s playing their next 9 games at home the power he possesses will be needed to hit the ball out in Oakland. If you are in a Dynasty League he should be owned, if you have the room in conventional leagues for a flier you may catch some lightning in a bottle through the 4^th of July.

Fix My Team...The 20 Stat League...Category Overload

Hello,

 I'm a first year fantasy player playing in a Yahoo H2H scoring league with 10 Teams & 20 scoring categories (R,H,RBI,SB,W,K,E,Avg,Obp,Slug,)

  (W,L,CG,SHO,SV,K,ERA,Whip,K/BB,K/9,BSV)My roster is as Follows; I'm currently 7th in the league @106-111-25 six games behind 3rd, & 17.5 from first.

C-Yadier Molina                               SP-Alexi Ogando

1B-Mark Teixeira                              SP-Ryan Vogelsong

2B- Dustin Pedroia                            SP-Tim Hudson

3B-Placido Palanco                           SP-Dillon Gee

SS-Troy Tulo.                                  RP-Houston Street

CF-Adam Jones                                RP-Craig Kimbrel

OF-Matt Joyce                                 RP-Jonny Venters 

OF-Michael Morse                           BN-Carlos Carrasco

Util-Justin Upton                              BN-Zach Britton

BN-Carlos Quentin                           BN-Erick Bedard

BN-Mitch Moreland                          BN-Ted Lilly

Recently had a player trade Jose Reyes, Thought about offering Tulo for Roy Halladay, & adding J.J. Hardy or Yunel Escobar via FA.

                                                          Thank you for your time,

                                                                    Dale

Wow Dale, where to begin? For a virgin fantasy player you sure did pick a monster league to get started with. Personally I have never played in more than a 6X6 Roto League. 20 counting stats in nearly insane to keep tabs on and value players. Any reason your league didn’t add a HBP stat too? Just kidding.

As far as your offer of Tulo for Halladay I would try and push that through. Your hitters definitely outweigh your pitching staff at this point. I am assuming you are losing in your pitching stats. If you could pull off the trade you are proposing then yes you should definitely pick up Hardy. If the other manager won’t come off Halladay, shop Tulo around for a couple of 2^nd tier SPs that have high K/9 ratios and will pitch 200 innings this year. The addition of those two could definitely bring up your pitching stats. Pair someone with a Hamels or Ian Kennedy type that are on contending teams and can pick you up Wins too. You should pick up Cory Luebke, who I spotlighted yesterday, I’m sure he is available in your league.

On a side not you may want to look into a bench hitter that has multi-position eligibility that can be put into your roster when a regular gets a day off or the team has an off day. This would include an Omar Infante, or Jamey Carroll type, I think they both still have 4 position eligibility.

Hope you are enjoying your league and are not feeling overwhelmed by the 20 counting stats. Next year maybe try a more conventional 5x5 league. Thanks for the question and good luck.

Starting Pitcher to Grab

Have you ever gone to pick up a player and you notice some other manager beat you to the punch by literally minutes. That just happened to me in my Dynasty League. Some days I check my rosters as soon as I get up, others times I do it during lunch, like I did today.  Though I have a fantastic SP staff (CC, Hamels, Haren, Zimmerman, Kuroda, Humber) and a gluttony of RP I wanted to add another pitcher and drop one of my many closers (either Salas or Capps) and then pick up the newly promoted Cory Luebke. All he did last night was go 3.1 IP of one hit ball while K-ing 6 Red Sox including 5 in a row at one point. The guy is averaging 9+ K/9 with a WHIP at 1.00 to date. He will get to throw in the pitcher friendly Petco and can dominate at home. The wins will always be hard to come by for Padres pitchers but the peripherals are what make your mouth water…give me K’s, K’s, and more K’s. Sure when he moves into the rotation there will be a slight drop off in the strikeouts but at times you’ll get 2 start weeks and collect 15 Ks from him. No one owns this kid (2%) so if you need help in K’s and WHIP pick this guy up now. If you are a little hesitant, pick him up and only use him on home games. He also has both RP and SP eligibility.

Dynasty League Prospect

Many people have emailed me about Dynasty Leagues asking for profiles on players I like and or monitor. I play in one dynasty league where we roster 15 prospects and can drop up to two prospects each year or of course roster them on the parent club. One individual I picked up last year after the international signing period in early July was a 16 year old kid from the Dominican named Ariel Ogando. At 6’4” and 180 lbs he is a left-handed hitting machine. There is nothing sweeter to see than a left-handed hitter with that perfect fluid swing. This kid will grow into his frame over the next 5 years and become a power hitting OF for the Astros.  There was this instant likeness after watching this kid hit on YouTube. To me he is Darryl Strawberry type. The kid will be moved today to Greenville in the Appalachian League. Over his last 10 games in Rookie ball all he did was hit .440 with 12 RBI and only 3 Ks. If you are in a Dynasty League, think long term on a prospect and pick up Ovando. Here is a link to him hitting.

Fix My Team...Trade Dilemma

Eric writes in looking for answers to his trade dilemma. Here is what he is pondering. Hewrites "I give up Lincecum, K-Rod, Francoeur ...for... McCutchen, Andrus, and Bud Norris. My outfield is solid now in all areas, I think K-Rod might be sitting later in the season due to his contract stuff and I also have 3 other closers, I know  Lincecum is Lincecum every year but so far Norris’ numbers are almost equal."

Personally, I would go nowhere near this trade. You are giving up a 2 time Cy Young award winner and a guy who will get you 200+ Ks. Yes, his team may struggle to get him runs and therefore Wins with the current crop of injuries but he will help you with his ERA, WHIP and Ks. He has some control issues at the moment but it will wash out over the season and he will still be a top SP in all formats.

With K-Rod your concerns are real about being used less and less to avoid his option kicking in. The fiery reliever has a $17.5 million vesting option which kicks in for 2012, if he finishes 55 games (save or not) this season. He is currently at 34 games played. Holding players down so vesting options do not materialize is actually bad for the team, it shows you are cheap and this keeps agents and other players from signing with that team in the future. I actually think they will work out some type of buyout to avoid this problem and save some face with other players.

Francoeur (Frenchy) is having an above average year for an improved Royals team.  He is not in their long term plans and once they fall out of the race he could be trade bait to a contender as a player coming off the bench. His 1 year contract with a mutual option is attractive to other teams if he is on the block.

You make your team sound solid with a strong outfield and numerous closers. Not sure why you would consider giving up and ace and a strong closer. Yes McCutcheon is a great player giving good help across the roto categories but that help may be picked up on waivers or trading lower quality players from your team. You may like Elvis but I am not a fan, Read Here.  If you need help at SS look to pick up JJ Hardy off waivers, he is only owned in 40% of leagues currently.

You may like Bud Norris’ numbers but he currently is a full run under his career ERA and I do not think that is going to last. He has only won a single game on the road and his home wins came against average teams when he went against them. One stat that sticks out is he has given up over 20% more runs than earned runs. Once his defense lets him down he lets those players score. If he starts to give up an extra hit or walk here and there he is back up to a 4.00 ERA very fast and back to a useable but not elite SP for your team.

My advice is to keeping looking for trades and shake out the waiver wire a bit. Teams are calling up young players that can help so look into that also.

Thanks for the question Eric. Hope this helps with your decision.

Time To Stream...2 Start SP

There were some very good options from the core of pitchers I provided last week. Carlos Carrasco took a no hitter into the 6^th last night and ended the week extending his scoreless streak to over 21 innings. He picked up wins in both starts last week.  Phil Coke picked up a win in his first start of the week. I covered the Zach Duke collapse earlier this week after he was spotted 8 runs and couldn’t qualify for the win. Pitched good enough to win last night but the pen let him down. Jeff Karstens picked up a W as he went 6+IP with 3H and 0R on Tuesday, he pitches again today. Carlos Villanueva also collected a win on Tuesday. Overall many wins this week from these widely own able SP. Not many strikeouts from last weeks bunch but they contributed positively in the other peripheral categories.  

Let’s look at this week’s picks. Interleague continues and that always comes with advantages and disadvantages. Not many games this week with Thursday only having 5 scheduled games. It looks like 30 two start SP go this week. You know our criteria: pick SPs that are owned in less than 50% of leagues to plug into your rotation for maximum earnable stats. This week’s problem is nearly all our options are pitching both games away from home. I only like 3 this week and lead off with Charlie Morton who I have owned for the last 8 weeks and wrote about here on April 28th. Hard to believe he is only owned in 30% of leagues to date.

Charlie Morton (BAL Arrieta, BOS Beckett)

Liván Hernández (SEA Fister, @CWS Floyd)

Luke Hochevar (ARI Saunders, CHC Zambrano)

If the Josh Outman kid were pitching at home this week he would definitely make our list. Oakland is such a pitchers park. If he pitches both games well on the road (@Philly & NY Mets) he is worth taking a serious look at for the rest of the season.

Top Rated 2nd Baseman

So who has been the top rated qualifying 2nd basemen in Fantasy baseball this month. Hint: He is the 8^th best overall player this month with a slash line of .381 AVG with 10R, 5 HR, 12RBI, 3SB and an OPS of 1.270. For the last 7 days he has been scorching hot. His line over the last week pushed him up to 3^rd overall while hitting .643 with 5R, 2HR, 6RBI and a staggering OPS at 1.914. This has to be Cano or Weeks or Pedroia or Utley right? Nope. It’s the same guy I told you to pick up here.

Still only owned in 78% of leagues, he could be the best possible trade chip the Twins have available. This multi-position work horse qualifies at every position except bullpen catcher and is expected to continue to get every day starts for the Twinkies even though Nishioka is back at 2^nd base. Morneau is down and out and out 1^st, RF is a mess in Minnesota and the DH is widely available if Mauer is catching. The Twins are out of it and will continue to showcase Cuddyer for the big money teams. If SF is still in the race in the next 6 weeks I look for him to be moved west and play 2^nd base for the injured Sanchez. Like my article said back in April…If you need MI help…here it is.

Lets Play GM

Today I am Brian Cashman. I have a RF hitting .226 with only 6 HR and 28 RBI. I have a soon to be 40 year old DH hitting .227 with 6 HR and 20 RBI. Both are unacceptable in the Yankee’s organization. As you know I have more money to play with than God himself and I can persuade any player (but not a player’s wife like Cliff Lee) to play for the pinstripes and contend for a title.

What to do? Let’s start by looking at who is in the last year of their contract and will not be signing with their current team next year.  It would be nice to have a switch hitter that could play right field too. Maybe a career .300+ hitter who has never won the WS and is itching to get a ring.  Someone who could play both roles, which is DH and RF efficiently when called on to do so down the stretch.

Here is what is going to happen in the near future people. When the Yankees fall 5+ games behind the BoSox I (being Brian Cashman today) am going to get the player(s) I want. You know that cost is not a factor to me and my organization.

Back to the real me. I see the Yankees plucking Magglio Ordonez or Carlos Beltran away from the Tigers and Mets. Both players have 10 and 5 rights but would waive them for a chance to play in October. Both players are solid veterans and with close to 300 HR and over 1100 RBI not to mention they hit well for average.  I would be stashing Ordonez away now that he is of the DL and maybe over pay a little to get Beltran. They Yankees always make a move and with no pitching to be had at the trade deadline they will stockpile hitters and try to out smash the BoSox down the stretch for the Division Title or Wild Card.

When they are traded they should bat 6^th in the Yankees order and be RBI producers. If I had to pick one player over the other it would be Ordonez that goes to NY. He will not be hitting DH ever for the Tigers and there is now no room in Detroit’s crowded outfield for the 37 year old. His 10M salary is a little cheaper than Beltran’s 17M and he would be easier to trade for with Detroit eyeing a playoff spot themselves.

Yesterday's Rundown

Hunter Pence goes 3 for 4 with a HR and 4 RBI. He may not be what you drafted him for (a 20/20 guy) but he flourished in the 3 hole as a solid RBI man. He will probably be a 20/10 guy but the RBI will be well over 100 and that .325 AVG is sparkling.

Wandy Rodriguez comes off the DL with a quality start and the Win. He goes 6 IP while only giving up 2 hits and 4 BB with 5 Ks. I did not have The Wandyman in my top 30 SP this year due to the Stros being so bad but I do like this guy and would have drafted him.

Brandon Lyon pitched a meaningless 9^th and gave up 3ER to bolster his already bloated ERA well over 11.00. He is still not worth owning even if he does get you a save a week.

Dan Uggla is now driving on the I-80 after another 0-for. This is why I have him listed as one of the biggest busts of the year on our poll question.

Randy Wolf pitched 7 innings of no run, 6 hit ball while K-ing 7 against the Cubs. I debated on putting Wolf into Sunday’s Streaming SPs, I ended up leaving him out of the post but picked him up in my big money league for the two starts this week.

Ryan Dempster matched Wolf nearly pitch for pitch but neither got the Win.

Zach Duke who I placed in the Streaming post instead of Wolf looked good early. I checked the box score during the 3^rd inning and he was up 9-0. Then the SOB can’t even get through the 5^th to get me a Win. He gives up 7ER in 4.2 innings. You were spotted a 9 run lead and you can’t get the win even after you hit a HR…go figure?!?

Juan Miranda had his biggest game of the year and might be worth watching if you need help at CI. He now has the job at 1B to himself and could be coming into his own.

Derek Jeter strains a calf and could be shelved for a month due to age and the rehab needed on a 37 year old calf. Eduardo Nunez is the obvious pick up so I snatched him in my pert league; he has both MI and CI eligibility (SS & 3B). Nunez will bat 9^th and Gardner gets the bump in value now leading off.

Carlos Carrasco gets the Win going 7 shutout innings. He was one of my Streamers this week.

Phil Coke gets a ND after going 6+ innings of no run baseball. He too was a Streamer this week I told you to pick up.

Jason Bay goes another game without a hit. I watch this guy at the plate and he looks solid. He has no luck with a BABIP near .230 so far. Every projection this year had him at 20+ HR and anywhere from 76-99 RBI. I feel this is him hitting the bottom. I will try this week to talk him down further with his owners and grab him on the cheap.

Chris Nelson had the musical chair tonight which is 2B in Colorado these days. He had a 2 for 4 night but I own Eric Young and want him playing every day. Truthfully I would avoid counting on any of them getting more than 3 starts a week.

Joey Votto had a good night leading the Reds. Does anyone else notice that when Votto has a big night Bruce is nowhere in the box score and vice versa when Bruce is hot Votto is in the midst of an 0-fer night.

Justin Smoak who has been on fire (Smoak-Fire…how many times are you gonna read that combination of words with this guy throughout his career?) simmered tonight. This guy is 1 year away from monster numbers I think. At 6-4 230 lbs and a 24 year old switch hitter…youwza. If you are in a dynasty league try and grab him.

Time to Stream....2 Start SP

With the great picks I furnished last week you should have picked up some easy Wins for your team. Danks and Leake both picked up 2 wins each last week. I provided no damage to your ERA, gave average Ks but took a little increase on WHIP. Overall, a successful week of streaming.

Interleague is back in fashion at the end of this week so we will have pitchers hitting and new DHs hitting. This week I once again picked SPs that are owned in less than 50% of leagues. In addition this week, 3 of my picks have RP eligibility. If you’re willing to pick up these SP that have RP status and you used my Closer strategy during the draft you should be leading your saves category and can now stream in 2 start SP with RP eligibility into your normal RP slots and make a killing this week in the Ks category. Here are the matchups this week.

Carlos Carrasco (@NY Burnett, PIT Maholm)

Phil Coke (TB Cobb, @ COL Jimenez)

Zach Duke (@ FLA Nolasco, CHISOX Humber)

Jeff Karstens (@ HOU Norris, @CLE, Masterson)

 Carlos Villanueva (BAL Britton, @CIN Arroyo)

Fantasy's Top Catcher

Let’s examine the top rated catcher in fantasy baseball.  For all fantasy catchers he is currently 8^th in Runs at 21, 2^nd in HR with 9, 1^st in RBI with 32, 3^rd in SB with 2, 5^th in AVG at .289 and 1^st in OPS with a whopping .893 mark. This slick, left hitting catcher in Detroit has great splits too. Whether he is hitting against lefties or righties, day games or night games, home or away he has been the model of consistency. This Tiger has surely earned his stripes.

Of course we are talking about the top rated fantasy catcher going into the drafts last March and the high priced free agent named Victor Martinez right? Nope. Its second year starter Alex Avila, the son of front office man Al Avila. Though Avila has only been behind the plate since his last year at Alabama he has blossomed into a great caller of games, a force against the SB, and for fantasy players a heck of a hitter at a weak position. I was lucky enough to pick him up in one league in the 2^nd week of the season as he went undrafted in a vast majority of all leagues. Still amazingly he is available in leagues. Only owned in 83% of leagues to date.

Avila attributes his success this year to hard work and more time to work on his hitting. Last year he was given the full time catcher duties. He spent the season learning his pitching staff and the hitters in the American League during his 1^st full year behind the plate. He feels he now knows his staff inside and out and has a great grasp on all the hitters in the American League so he has had much more time to concentrate on his hitting. That concentration has paid off. I feel his current numbers are sustainable too, as he could be a 20+ HR and 80+ RBI with a .275 AVG for years to come. Numbers like that at one of the thinnest positions in fantasy baseball look mighty good. Advice: Remember what can happen to your team when you draft a young, elite hitting catcher early in drafts next year…They could get Posey’d…out for the year. But selecting catchers early in drafts is a story for another post.

Reviewing the Streamers

Lets review our SP that are up for 2 starts this week. We will look at our stats after 1 start.

American League

Scott Baker MIN 32% (@ CLE Tomlin, TEX Lewis)

John Danks CHW 48% (SEA Pineda, OAK Moscoso)

Kyle Drabek TOR 25% (@ KC O’Sullivan, BOS Lester)

Matt Harrison TEX 34% (DET Porcello, @ MIN Swarzak)

Brian Matusz BAL 49% (OAK Gonzalez, TB Price)

National League

Kevin Correia PIT 43% (ARZ Hudson, NYM Capuano)

Mike Leake CIN 3% (CHC Lopez, @SF Sanchez)

Clayton Mortensen COL 2% (@SD Richards, LAD Lilly)

Clayton Richards SD 15% (COL Mortensen, WAS Lannan)

Javier Vasquez ATL 27% (MIL Greinke, ARZ Kennedy)

	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K
Scott Baker (W 3-4)	7	9	4	3	0	5
John Danks (W 1-8)	7.1	7	1	0	1	6
Kyle Drabek (W 4-4)	5.1	9	5	5	3	0
Matt Harrison (L 5-5)	4	8	4	3	2	5
Brian Matusz (W1-0)	7.1	7	2	2	2	3
Kevin Correia (ND)	5	8	4	4	2	3
Mike Leake (W 5-2)	8	10	2	2	1	3
Clayton Mortenson(W 2-3)	6	5	0	0	2	3
Clayton Richards ( L 2-7)	7	5	1	1	3	8
Javier Vasquez (L 3-5)	4	8	6	6	1	6

Not a bad rotation for their first starts. We went an impressive 6-3 with an average ERA of 3.73 and a WHIP of 1.51. The Wins were nice and the ERA usable but we got a little hurt on the WHIP of these 10. Their K/9 at 5.76 is right around league average too. Remember that streaming SP can hurt a category but also help many others. It’s a definite risk/reward strategy to use. Note that these are all SP on the wire and not the anchors of your staff.