Audacious Predictions…Write em’ Down Anyway

World Series: Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers

NL Bombshell: Miami only wins 55 games

AL Bombshell: Yankees finish under .500

NL MVP: Ryan Braun

AL MVP: Josh Hamilton

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw

AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez

NL Rookie of the Year: Oscar Taveras

AL Rookie of the Year: Danny Hultzen

NL Surprise Player: Anthony Rizzo

AL Surprise Player: Jesus Montero

NL Round 1-2 Busts: Carlos Gonzalez

AL Round 1-2 Busts: Adrian Beltre

NL Over Hyped/Under Achiever: Allen Craig

AL Over Hyped/Under Achiever: Jason Kipnis

NL Comeback Player of the year: Chase Utley

AL Comeback Player of the Year: Victor Martinez

First Manager Fired: Terry Collins

Crazy Prediction: Astros have three separate 10 game losing streaks

First Player Arrested after Opening Day: Yunel Escobar

That's 20 predictions for the season...let’s hear yours...get the most right and I will give you credit and let your voice be heard here at the start of next season. You will also be given a moniker of your choice. Submit Predictions Here

"Fix My Team" H2H Version

Hi Brett,

We are a 12 team H2H daily league (R, HR, RBI, AVG, OBP, SB – W, L, K’s, SV, ERA, WHIP). We have 6 keepers per team so a lot of the top talents were already off the board.

Here is how my lineup plays out currently:

C – Salvador Perez

1b – Paul Konerko

2b – Brandon Phillips

SS – Asdrubal Cabrera

3b – Adrian Beltre

OF – Jose Bautista

OF – Carlos Gonzalez

OF – Bryce Harper

Util – Chris Davis

BN – Todd Frazier

BN – Matt Carpenter (was expecting 2b eligibility right away but once Freese is back he will get it shortly)

BN – Jed Lowrie

BN – Leonys Martin

BN – Manny Machado

SP – David Price

SP – Adam Wainwright

SP – Yovani Gallardo

SP – Jordan Zimmermann

SP – Ian Kennedy

SP – Dan Haren

SP – Marco Estrada

RP – Sergio Romo

RP – Bobby Parnell

I see saves and speed as my weaknesses but feel I should still be fairly competitive each week in those categories. I am interested in your thoughts as I am being hounded with trade offers from other owners for several of my SP, none of which have been worthwhile in my opinion, and would like a 2^nd set of eyes to see what/who I should target if I were to make move.

 

Thanks for the question Josh,

First thing I would do is get one of the “closer by committee” members in Detroit. Benoit, Alburquerque, Coke, and Dotel in that order.  . With some of the recent injuries at 3B to open the season, try and move Frazier or Machado for a Closer or some speed like SS Escobar in KC. It would be nice to slide in some speed to your Utility spot on off days or coming into the weekend if you are comfortably ahead in other hitting categories. Not sure why you have some many bats on your bench. I would prefer fewer players and more players with position flexibility. Look for Keppinger on Waivers. He is only player to have 1B, 2B, 3B eligibility. He is someone who will not hurt you in any category and owning him is like owning 3 players in H2H leagues. Maybe even Doumit with both C and OF eligibility.  Then try and get someone who can get Vulture Saves like Fujikawa for the Cubs, Boggs in St.Louis or Matt Thornton for the White Sox. Your SP is definitely your strength, ERA,Ks, and Wins. You have no need to stream every week and if you did decide to move a SP I would go with Haren. Overall good team and should do well.

Each Teams #5 SP Battles

With drafts under way in full force it is important to look at all possible position battles and that includes Starting Pitchers. I have compiled a list of all battles the for the final week of Spring training. This list includes rookies trying to break camp, veterans trying to continue on for another year and those coming off surgery. Some teams have locked up their #5 while others have battles and a pitching surplus.

We all know these pitchers will not seek action until mid April when teams first need a 5th starter. This is just more tools for your toolbox come draft day or who to pick up off waiver to stream in 6 weeks. Keep in mind any team on this list could sign Lohse this week and bump any or all off the chart. Many of the SP will have duel eligibility or just RP eligibility to start the season, that can be a bonus for line-up rostering.

 

Team	SP #5
ARI	* Corbin, Patrick * Delgado, Randall * Hudson, Daniel
ATL	* Teheran, Julio   * Gilmartin, Sean * Beachy, Brandon
CHC	* Villanueva, Carlos * Baker, Scott * Garza, Matt
CIN	* Leake, Mike
COL	* Francis, Jeff * Friedrich, Christian * Chatwood, Tyler
LAD	* Harang, Aaron * Lilly, Ted * Capuano, Chris * Billingsley, Chad
MIA	* Turner, Jacob * Slowey, Kevin * Maine, John
MIL	* Peralta, Wily
NYM	* Gee, Dillon * Mejia, Jenrry * Hefner, Jeremy * McHugh, Collin
PHI	* Lannan, John * Cloyd, Tyler
PIT	* Karstens, Jeff * McPherson, Kyle * Sanchez, Jonathan * Locke, Jeff *  Morton, Charlie
SD	* Garcia, Freddy * Kelly, Casey * Cashner, Andrew * Luebke, Cory * Wieland, Joe
SF	* Vogelsong, Ryan
STL	* Miller, Shelby * Kelly, Joe
WAS	* Detwiler, Ross
Team	SP #5
BAL	* Jurrjens, Jair * Britton, Zach * Arrieta, Jake * Johnson, Steve * Wada, Tsuyoshi
BOS	* Doubront, Felix * Morales, Franklin
CHW	* Axelrod, Dylan * Santiago, Hector * Danks, John
CLE	* Carrasco, Carlos * Tomlin, Josh
DET	* Porcello, Rick * Smyly, Drew
HOU	* Peacock, Brad * White, Alex * Weiland, Kyle
KC	* Chen, Bruce * Mendoza, Luis * Paulino, Felipe * Duffy, Danny
LAA	* Blanton, Joe * Williams, Jerome * Richards, Garrett
MIN	* Deduno, Samuel * De Vries, Cole * Diamond, Scott
NYY	* Nova, Ivan * Phelps, David * Pineda, Michael
OAK	* Straily, Dan * Blackley, Travis * Colon, Bartolo
SEA	* Beavan, Blake * Garland, Jon
TB	* Niemann, Jeff * Archer, Chris * Odorizzi, Jake
TEX	* Ross, Robbie * Lewis, Colby * Feliz, Neftali * Perez, Martin
TOR	* Romero, Ricky * Jenkins, Chad * McGowan, Dustin * Drabek, Kyle * Hutchison, Drew

The Roto Authority 'Pert Draft

I was invited to take part in the RotoAuthority silver pert big money league. This is a 5x5 Roto with daily line-ups 1500 IP. It consists of standard positions including 2C, CI, MI, 5OF 9P, 3B and 2DL. I had decided before draft that I was going to punt C & either MI or SS and stick to my valuations as closely as I could. I wanted at least 4 closers with an above average SP staff. I was lucky enough to secure the 3rd draft position and was hoping Miggy would fall to me but it was Braun so no real complaints.

Round 2 I had Reyes, H-Ram and Longoria pegged but all 3 went before me along with Verlander and Strasburg. That left me with Price and Hamels as the top 2 on my draft board. I do not like taking SP this early but I did want an elite staff and I was determined to stick with my draft prep. I took Price. The rest of the team after the break.

Target & Avoid Pittsburgh Pirates

 

Target Starling Marte

In just over a week Marte’s ADP has gone from 224 to 178. The word is out and people are taking notice. The career .312 hitter in the Minors, Marte is now the everyday LF for the Bucs. I consider him a poor man’s Desmond Jennings while going 100 pick later.

Target & Avoid St. Louis Cardinals

 

Target Carlos Beltran

According to current ADP Beltran is at pick 112 and the 33^rd OF off the board. As a 9^th round pick he is an average 2^nd and solid 3rd OF and will probably be the last 30HR OF off the board outside Alfonso Soriano just 5 picks later. At 36, with the previous leg problems, his days of 20+ SB are gone but he can still put up double digit swipes. So we have an OF hitting clean-up behind Holliday, has 30HR power, 90+ RBIs penciled in, to go along with 15 SB and a career .282 average you have great value in the 9^th round. The OFs going ahead of him such as Hunter, Pagan, and Swisher will not even come close to Beltran’s counting stats. He come into the WBC in great shape for Puerto Rico and continues to hit and has no nagging injuries this spring. Remember last year he had 20HR pre All-Star break while hitting .296 but cooled off down the stretch. All I have to add in contract year…love players on contract years.

 

Avoid Jason Motte

As of this week he is now the 2^nd closer off the board at pick #70. This might be the most inflated ADP of any player I have studied this spring. For a closer of his pedigree to go in the 6^th round of a 12 team league is just ludicrous.  Similar closers with the same peripherals are going 100 pick later…as they should. Even with 35 Saves, a 2.50 ERA and a WHIP at 1.00 does not do enough to boost your pitching categories significantly as compared to a closer with 28 saves 3.00 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. It may look like large differences but in a 1500 innings pitched league a closer with 60 innings only counts for 4% of the counting stats. Motte is a rock-solid closer and worthy of being drafted but nowhere near the 6^th round. Get Betancourt, Grilli, or Perkins 80-100 pick later.

My First League Auction 13'

This auction consisted of C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3OF, 2UTIL, 8P, 5BENCH, 1DL with 1400 max IP with daily line-up changes. My strategy coming in was to test my values I had set for each player. I was determined to not bid more than $2 over my set values for any player. After completing a few mock auction drafts I felt my valuations for players were accurate and would see how the deviations in value would play out. Here is my team and the picks/draft positions/$paid.

Target & Avoid Chicago Cubs

Back from a destination wedding (not mine) and ready to write more baseball.

Target Anthony Rizzo

Rizzo has 30/100 potential written all over him. The twice traded Rizzo/Epstein connection will be the center piece in the Cubs lineup.  The prototypical left handed power bat is what every organization covets.  His last year in Triple A for the Padres he only posted a .331 average with 26HR and 101 RBI in only 93 games. Those numbers are beyond gaudy.

The Age 27 Factor

 

 

 

One tool that I use every year if I am on the fence between players during my drafts is the Age 27 Factor. Not sure it’s a conventional “factor” but that is what I refer to it as every year. It is widely known that athletes tend to peak just before, during and just after their 27^th birthdays. So drafting a player who is 27 years old during the season tends to push their performance higher and thus out performing their draft position. Last year all these players outperformed their draft position significantly while being at that magical age 27; David Price, Matt Cain, Gio Gonzalez, Adam Jones and Max Scherzer. I’m not saying it is a lock for 27 year olds to have monster seasons, I’m saying it is just another tool for your  tool box come draft day if you find yourself debating between a couple of players. Anyway here is this year’s list of players who will start the season at 27 or who will turn 27 this summer and their ranks.

Target & Avoid Washington Nationals

 

Target Jordan Zimmermann

While managers are looking for opening day starters to fill their Fantasy rosters you should target the Nationals #3 SP. Zimmermann is coming off a dazzling 12’ campaign where he posted a sub 3.00 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP. That makes him one of only ten SPs last year to accomplish that feat.

Target & Avoid Miami Marlins

 

Target Steve Cishek

Cishek took over the closer’s role over the last few months of 12’ after Bell continued to struggle. My analysis is he did very well collecting 15 Saves and putting up a 2.69 ERA. If you have not seen Cishek pitch he has that unorthodox delivery and has started throwing a changeup which will come in handy to keep lefties off balance.

Target & Avoid Atlanta Braves

Target Kris Medlen

Medlen was drafted by the Braves in 2006 in the 10^th round as a Junior College athlete who pitched and played shortstop which shows he is an athlete and not just a pitcher. Once he turned pro he amazed the scouts with his pitching.