Thursday, March 7, 2013

The Age 27 Factor

 
 
 

One tool that I use every year if I am on the fence between players during my drafts is the Age 27 Factor. Not sure it’s a conventional “factor” but that is what I refer to it as every year. It is widely known that athletes tend to peak just before, during and just after their 27th birthdays. So drafting a player who is 27 years old during the season tends to push their performance higher and thus out performing their draft position. Last year all these players outperformed their draft position significantly while being at that magical age 27; David Price, Matt Cain, Gio Gonzalez, Adam Jones and Max Scherzer. I’m not saying it is a lock for 27 year olds to have monster seasons, I’m saying it is just another tool for your  tool box come draft day if you find yourself debating between a couple of players. Anyway here is this year’s list of players who will start the season at 27 or who will turn 27 this summer and their ranks.

CATCHERS
Rank
Player
Team
1
Matt Wieters
Baltimore Orioles
2
Carlos Santana
Cleveland Indians
3
J. Saltalamacchia
Boston Red Sox
4
J.P. Arencibia
Toronto Blue Jays
5
Jonathan Lucroy
Brewers
6
Tyler Flowers
Chicago White Sox
7
Lou Marson
Cleveland Indians
8
Steve Clevenger
Chicago Cubs
9
M. Maldonado
Brewers
10
Tony Cruz
St. Louis Cardinals
1B
Rank
Player
Team
1
Billy Butler
Kansas City Royals
2
Chris Davis
Baltimore Orioles
3
Tyler Colvin
Colorado Rockies
4
Mitch Moreland
Texas Rangers
5
Brett Wallace
Houston Astros
6
Mike Carp
Boston Red Sox
7
Kyle Blanks
San Diego Padres
8
Daric Barton
Oakland Athletics
2B
Rank
Player
Team
1
Neil Walker
Pittsburgh Pirates
2
Emilio Bonifacio
Toronto Blue Jays
3
Gordon Beckham
Chicago White Sox
4
Matt Carpenter
St. Louis Cardinals
5
Darwin Barney
Chicago Cubs
6
Ryan Flaherty
Baltimore Orioles
3B
Rank
Player
Team
1
Evan Longoria
Tampa Bay Rays
2
Pablo Sandoval
Giants
3
Todd Frazier
Cincinnati Reds
4
Trevor Plouffe
Minnesota Twins
5
Josh Donaldson
Oakland Athletics
6
Chris Nelson
Colorado Rockies
7
Ian Stewart
Chicago Cubs
8
Sean Rodriguez
Tampa Bay Rays
9
Jordan Pacheco
Colorado Rockies
10
Pedro Ciriaco
Boston Red Sox
SS
Rank
Player
Team
1
Ian Desmond
Washington Nats
2
Asdrubal Cabrera
Cleveland Indians
3
Zack Cozart
Cincinnati Reds
4
Eric Sogard
Oakland Athletics
5
Reid Brignac
Tampa Bay Rays
OF
Rank
Player
Team
1
Carlos Gonzalez
Colorado Rockies
2
Adam Jones
Baltimore Orioles
3
Yoenis Cespedes
Oakland Athletics
4
Mark Trumbo
Angels
5
Carlos Gomez
Brewers
6
Lorenzo Cain
Kansas City Royals
7
Dexter Fowler
Colorado Rockies
8
Colby Rasmus
Toronto Blue Jays
9
Andy Dirks
Detroit Tigers
10
Darin Mastroianni
Minnesota Twins
11
Lucas Duda
New York Mets
12
Delmon Young
Phillies
13
Brennan Boesch
Detroit Tigers
14
Darin Ruf
Phillies
15
Chris Coghlan
Miami Marlins
16
Eric Young
Colorado Rockies
17
Michael Taylor
Oakland Athletics
18
Collin Cowgill
New York Mets
19
Alex Presley
Pittsburgh Pirates
20
Tony Campana
Arizona D-backs
21
Jordan Schafer
Atlanta Braves
22
Charlie Blackmon
Colorado Rockies
23
Bryan Petersen
Miami Marlins
SP
Rank
Player
Team
1
David Price
Tampa Bay Rays
2
Felix Hernandez
Seattle Mariners
3
Yu Darvish
Texas Rangers
4
Gio Gonzalez
Washington Nats
5
Johnny Cueto
Cincinnati Reds
6
Kris Medlen
Atlanta Braves
7
Yovani Gallardo
Brewers
8
J. Zimmermann
Washington Nats
9
Matt Harrison
Texas Rangers
10
Phil Hughes
New York Yankees
11
Tommy Hanson
 Angels
12
Homer Bailey
Cincinnati Reds
13
Wade Davis
Kansas City Royals
14
Jaime Garcia
St. Louis Cardinals
15
Wei-Yin Chen
Baltimore Orioles
16
Ross Detwiler
Washington Nats
17
Michael Fiers
 Brewers
18
Brandon Beachy
Atlanta Braves
19
Andrew Cashner
San Diego Padres
20
Scott Diamond
Minnesota Twins
21
Lucas Harrell
Houston Astros
22
John Danks
Chicago White Sox
23
Dillon Gee
New York Mets
24
Franklin Morales
Boston Red Sox
25
Mark Rogers
Brewers
26
Juan Nicasio
Colorado Rockies
27
Corey Kluber
Cleveland Indians
28
Jake Arrieta
Baltimore Orioles
RP
Rank
Player
Team
1
Greg Holland
Kansas City Royals
2
Chris Perez
Cleveland Indians
3
Ernesto Fieri
Angels
4
Steve Cishek
Miami Marlins
5
David Robertson
New York Yankees
6
Al Alburquerque
Detroit Tigers
7
Jake McGee
Tampa Bay Rays
8
David Hernandez
Arizona D-backs
9
Brad Lincoln
Toronto Blue Jays
10
Daniel Bard
Boston Red Sox
11
Jared Hughes
Pittsburgh Pirates
12
Ryan Webb
Miami Marlins
13
Charlie Furbush
Seattle Mariners
14
Michael Dunn
Miami Marlins
15
Junichi Tazawa
Boston Red Sox
16
Daniel Schlereth
Baltimore Orioles
17
Tommy Hunter
Baltimore Orioles
18
Pedro Strop
Baltimore Orioles
19
Brad Bergesen
Arizona D-backs
20
Troy Patton
Baltimore Orioles
21
Andrew Miller
Boston Red Sox

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