Worthy Of Drafting After Returning From Injury

For the next week or so we will examine players from every position who are returning after lengthy, if not season ending, injuries. We will examine players from both leagues, their current ADP, possible alternatives, and finally giving a green light to draft them.  Today we review two very under performing left fielders.

NL Jason Bay: ADP (155) the 40^th OF off the board. If you remember, Bay crashed at full speed into a padded wall at Dodger Stadium while catching a fly ball. After the catch he fell to the ground, injured. Bay then told his trainer that he hadn’t hit his head, but that his back and knee were hurt. So the team didn’t make Bay get a full neurological exam, and he played in two more games. On the fight back to New York, Bay got a nagging headache. It turns out he had sustained a concussion when he hit the wall. As of today Bay states that the previous concussion is a non issue. That may be the case but how do we explain last year’s stats: HR6 RBI47 R48 OBP.347 AVG.259? Is it a sign of things to come or just a lost season? Before heading to Citi Field as a Met, Bay was a Silver Slugger winner in Boston. His 2009 line was as follows: HR36 RBI119 R103 OBP.384 AVG.267. I do not think Bay is as good as 2009 but not as bad as 2010. So is he worth a 12-14^th round pick? Let’s see who is available in the draft around him. There is Stubbs and Ludwick in front of him and Kubel and Manny behind him. None will hit for average but do have 20+ HR power and a few can get you double digit steals. Of those 4 listed only Bay will get consistent ABs in the cleanup spot, that’s an RBI plus. At this time I feel Bay will outperform his current ADP.

AL Alex Gordon: ADP (N/A) currently he is not being drafted in mock drafts. Last year Gordon was injured on a headfirst slide as he was thrown out attempting to steal second base last year. It ended up being a broken right thumb. The year before, he missed 10 weeks with a leg/hip  injury. Gordon has missed horribly on the expectations of him being an MLB superstar after he was drafted second overall in 2005 following a standout career at the University of Nebraska. As far as the injuries Gordon has also been sent down to learn new positions and work on his hitting. Gordon is slated to be the opening day LF for the Royals and has little to no completion. Could this be his breakout year? What I do like about Gordon is his position versatility in H2H leagues. He will have both OF and 3B eligibility. You may not want to use a draft choice on him but keep him on your radar throughout April and scoop him up if he produces like he was drafted to do back in 2005.

Worthy Of Drafting After Returning From Injury

For the next week or so we will examine players from every position who are returning after lengthy, if not season ending, injuries. We will examine players from both leagues, their current ADP, possible alternatives, and finally giving a green light to draft them.  Today two former elite center fielders.

AL Grady Sizemore: ADP (98) the 23^rd OF off the board. Ahh the injury bug, remember when Sizemore was the 5^th overall pick in 09’ then coming off an injury dropped to 25^th in 10’ now after back to back injury riddled seasons we see the once 40/40 candidate down to 98^th. Here is the latest from Indians general manager Chris Antonetti; the club hopes Grady Sizemore (knee) will be ready by Opening Day or shortly thereafter. Two things here, “hope” and “shortly thereafter” We are into February and he hasn’t even started running yet, he has started hitting but once you hit the ball you need to run. That is worrisome. I had targeted Sizemore as my comeback player of the year but with this recent news I’m now more cautious. When healthy, Sizemore is a rare combination of speed, power and defense. In his first four full seasons, he averaged almost 27 home runs and 29 stolen bases a year while making three All-Star teams and winning two Gold Gloves. But after being limited to just 109 games because of injury in 2009, Sizemore played only 33 games in 2010 before an awkward slide in May forced him to undergo season-ending micro fracture surgery on his left knee. As eager as the Indians are for their 28-year-old star to be back in their lineup, he needs the regain his stroke at the plate just as badly. He was batting just .211/.271/.289 with no home runs at the time of his injury last year. Currently going in rounds 8-9 I would feel comfortable drafting him due to his tremendous upside. What I would not do is make him your 1^st OF off the board, even in those previously mentioned rounds. Get an elite OF then take a chance on Sizemore as your 2^nd or 3^rd OF. I’m not at all impressed with the alternatives coming off the board after him: Soriano (102) Wells (103) Abreu (123)

NL Carlos Beltran: ADP (213) the 49^th OF off the board. The persistent injury is a major concern for fantasy owners. Beltran, who turns 34 on April 24, is in the last year of that large 7 year contract. With only 1 year left on that contract, it was interesting to find out the Angels balked on Beltran and decided to take on Wells’ large contract.That to me is a red flag because they could have gotten Beltran for peanuts just so the Mets could take his contract off the books. The true test will come early in spring training. If Beltran cannot hold down the CF job and then gets moved to RF you will know he does not have the wheels he once possessed. At this point Beltran's fantasy service is at an all time low. At least you will not have to pay a lofty price for his services. If he comes into the season healthy, he might be worth a roll of the dice as your 4th or 5th OF, if he gets hot you trade that hot start with his name recognition and get a younger upgrade as I have mentioned in previous posts. The interesting this with the ADP is Pagan (who he is battling at CF) is going 3 OF spots later at (225)

Worthy Of Drafting After Returning From Injury?

For the next week or so we will examine players from every position who are returning after lengthy, if not season ending, injuries. We will examine players from both leagues, their current ADP, possible alternatives, and finally giving a green light to draft them.  Today we have two players at the hot corner.

NL Aramis Ramirez:  ADP (100) the 8^th 3B off the board. Ramirez has been part of the walking wounded for a majority of his career. He has only played in 75% of eligible games over the last 4 years. That is fairly close to being a platoon player. When healthy he is productive, he could be a 25HR and 90RBI guy. The veteran posted his lowest batting average (.241) in the last 10 seasons after missing the majority of June when he was placed on the disabled list because of the thumb. He should be healed completely by spring training. Another glaring problem with Aramis this year will be his supporting cast. He should have Soriano and Pena as bookends in the line-up. They are both slow, free swinging, and low OBP players. With them not providing protection, Ramirez’ RBI will take a nose dive this year. Still a good 3B with an adequate BA, you have to remember he has no speed and will be lucky to get a SB this year. Look for alternatives later in the draft that can complete a full season at the position and have some pop while playing on a better team. These two players you should consider; Casey McGehee (111) and Mark Reynolds (132).

AL Edwin Encarnacion: ADP (394) the 23^rd 3B off the board. Apparently one rocky season wasn't enough to scare off the Blue Jays from bringing back Edwin Encarnacion for another go-round in 2011. It was a chaotic campaign for Encarnacion in 2010. It started off slow at the plate, then he had some health problems (Wrist and hamstring) and before he knew it Encarnacion was demoted to the minors in June. He would make it back a few weeks later and the demotion served as a helpful wake-up call. Encarnacion hit .269 with 12 homers and 29 RBI over his final 59 games. Encarnacion played 95 games at third last season for Toronto, but he isn't expected to see much time at the hot corner this year. Toronto brought him back to be a designated hitter and backup first baseman. Encarnacion hit 20-plus homers for the second time in his career last year, but he is going to post a low batting average, which is going to irritate Fantasy owners. Consider Encarnacion for what he is, a multi-position eligible, and late-round Fantasy option in all leagues. Basically a bench player with some pop that could be used in certain H2H pitcher friendly match-ups.

Worthy Of Drafting After Returning From Injury?

For the next week or so we will examine players from every position who are returning after lengthy, if not season ending, injuries. We will examine players from both leagues, their current ADP, possible alternatives, and finally giving a green light to draft them.  Today we look at two shortstops.

NL Rafael Furcal: ADP (144) the 9^th SS off the board. Furcal has only played over 143 games 5 times in his 11 year career. Now that he is 33, he won't play winter ball this offseason as to allow his body to rest and get healthy for the 2011 season. Furcal was limited to 97 games in 2010 due to hamstring and back injuries, and he missed almost all of the 2008 season with a back injury that required surgery.  Is the 33 year old breaking down completely? He is one of the oldest starting SS in the NL. The pros he brings to a fantasy team is his ability to get on base with a career .351 OBP, he will be the switching hitting leadoff man in LA, and continue to provide 100+ R with double digit steals. He also has no competition at the position since LA traded his back up Hu to the Mets. The cons are he is basically a 2 stat producer. He will contribute in R+SB with virtually no power. His days of legging out infield hits are dwindling. I see better alternatives in the draft with equal to better upside with a decade less stress on the body and a few rounds later in the draft. Look for Castro (163), Cabrera (183), and Desmond (195).

AL Elvis Andrus: ADP (70) the 6^th SS off the board. Andrus seems to be the most hyped SS I can remember in the past decade. Coming off hamstring and wrist problems last year is he an elite SS this year?  Let’s look at his accomplishments. He finished 10’ with 0HR 35RBI 88R and 32SB while hitting .265 from both the 1^st and 9^th positions. He is one of the few in all MLB to have an OBP higher than his SLG, that’s what happens when you fail to hit a single HR all year. His 15 caught stealings hurt his run production slightly and he only hit .160 the entire month of September. This year Texas will put up monster offensive numbers and there will be games where the lead will be so large that Elvis has no reason to steal a base. Do not fall into the hype and “potential” upside. Go with a proven player with a more consistent track record a few rounds later. Look at someone like Ramirez (98) or Drew (124) they both put up similar numbers with much more power.

Worthy Of Drafting After Returning From Injury?

NL Chase Utley: ADP (18) the 2^nd two bagger off the board. Utley’s frequent injuries have led to casts or surgery 3 of the last 4 years. He missed a total of 47 games last year with the torn thumb ligament. We saw decreases in BA, SLG, and OPS last year due to the thumb injury. Those stats were all well below his career averages. Utley has always returned on schedule from his injuries but he is getting older and future injury setbacks will take longer to heal. He will be 32 this year and the speed may be decreasing along with managements thought of injury when he does run. Still a perennial 25/15 guy he is a must have no later than Round 2 and still arguably the top 2B in baseball.

For the next week or so we will examine players from every position who are returning after lengthy, if not season ending, injuries. We will examine players from both leagues, their current ADP, possible alternatives, and finally giving a green light to draft them.  Today we continue with two All-Star second basemen.

 

AL Brian Roberts: ADP (125) the 12^th two bagger off the board.  Roberts said at Saturday's fan fest that he hasn't felt this good in more than a year. That is good news to hear.  Now can he hit .283 with 16 homers, 79 RBI, 110 runs and 30 stolen bases like he did in 2009 before injury settled in last season? That injury was a back/disk problem that lingered from opening week to nearly September. Remember he had to take epidurals just alleviate the pain at times.  Here is another tidy tidbit on why he missed the last week of the year; Roberts stated that he missed the last six games of the season for concussion-like symptoms after hitting himself in the helmet with a bat. Some of the cons for Roberts will be that he is 33 this year, those SB numbers have been on steady decline since he turned 30, and old back problems can flair up at any time.  What Roberts has going for him is the Orioles added 3B Mark Reynolds, SS J.J. Hardy and 1B Derek Lee they should give Roberts added lineup protection. If healthy a nice spike in R could be had this year.  If he gets back to that 2009 level, then Roberts might return to being an elite Fantasy 2B. For now, treat him as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy 2B on Draft Day or a high level MI for your team. Some alternatives would be Zobrist (123), Hill (153), and Beckham (200). None of those 3 bring the complete package and a leadoff hitter to boot like Roberts but with that group doesn’t have the lingering back problems of a 33 year old base stealer.

Worthy Of Drafting After Returning From Injury?

For the next week or so we will examine players from every position who are returning after lengthy, if not season ending, injuries. We will examine players from both leagues, their current ADP, possible alternatives, and finally giving a green light to draft them at their current value.  Today we will start with two first basemen.

 AL Justin Morneau: ADP (46) the 9^th 1B off the board. Morneau was off to an MVP season last year before the concussion in early July. His stats projected out to be 35HR 110RBI 105R .340BA if he stayed healthy. We are now 7 months away from the concussion and the word is that he is still recovering. It's worrisome that Morneau didn't attend the team's recent winter fan festival in Minnesota, instead staying in Arizona, and still hasn't started baseball activities. Morneau's target date for a full return is April 1, the day the Twins open the regular season at Toronto. Remember the Twins played very well in his absence last year and even if he is 100% by opening day look for the twins to be cautious with him, possibly missing the first road trip, not playing in the cold weather, or waiting longer if the Twins start strong without him. Picks to consider in his place are Dunn (50), Konerko (71), and Butler (86).  Morneau would be a must pick in round 6 or later, just be extremely cautious with a 4th rounder or earlier.

            

NL Lance Berkman: ADP (340) the 21^st 1B and 38^th CI off the board. Berkman has trimmed a few pounds off that doughy body this off season so he can patrol RF for St. Louis. Remember though, he will still be playing on last year’s gimpy knee that hindered him with the Yankees.  The pros for a Berkman pick are his switch hitting ability, 1B and OF eligibility, his current ADP, Pujols and Holliday on base in front of him, and a career .954 OPS. The cons are his age, he will be 35 this year, and his inability to hit lefties last year which might lead to a platoon with Jon Jay. To me the pros outweigh the cons and if Berkman is available in the very late rounds I suggest you take him as your back up CI or versatile bench player. If he starts out the season hot you can trade that hot streak and his name recognition for a young upgrade.

Early Closer Report

Here is my take on the current state of closers. I will list Division-Team-Closer-competition, if any. This list will be dynamic throughout the season with updates when changes are necessary.

AL EAST

Yankees - Mariano Rivera  - No competition.

 Red Sox - Jonathan Papelbon - No early competition.

 Rays – With the new contract signed by Kyle Farnsworth   that includes "finished games" incentives, I have yo put him as the early front runner.

 Orioles - Koji Uehara & Kevin Gregg will battle for the closer spot. I’m now leaning towards Gregg.

 Blue Jays - Octavio Dotel with Jason Frasor and now Frank Francisco in the mix.

AL CENTRAL

 White Sox - Matt Thornton, but with Ozzie at the helm it could be anyone at anytime.

 Indians - Chris Perez - No competition.

 Royals - Joakim Soria  – No competition.

 Twins - Joe Nathan if “completely” healthy, Matt Capps if not. Nathan will likely begin the season in a set-up role to Matt Capps, but could take back the closer role later in the summer.

 Tigers - José Valverde – No competition.

AL WEST

 Angels - Fernando Rodney  with Scott Downs  lurking.

 A’s - Andrew Bailey – No competition.

 Mariners - David Aardsma is expected to return to the Seattle bullpen in the second week of April. You should hand-cuff him to Brandon League  to start the season.

Rangers - Neftali Feliz - forget the rumors he moves to the starting rotation. Until I hear this coming the boss, Nolan Ryan, it means nothing. Remember they just sent Francisco to the great white North.

NL EAST

 Nationals - Drew Storen it’s the 23 year olds job to lose. Next in order: Sean Burnett Tyler Clippard  and Todd Coffey.

 Phillies - Brad Lidge – No completion.

 Mets - Francisco Rodríguez – No completion.

 Marlins - Leo Nunez lost it to Clay Hensley late last year; both will compete for it this year.

 Braves – Open for any of these three to win. Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters , George Sherrill

NL CENTRAL

Cubs - Carlos Marmol – No competition.

Reds - Francisco Cordero  - No competition. Caught some flack over not giving Chapman any chance to win the position. The reason being is…he has no chance.

Brewers - John Axford – No competition.

Astros - Brandon Lyon – No competition.

Pirates - Joel Hanrahan, Evan Meek  coin flip thus far.

Cardinals - Ryan Franklin – No competition.

NL WEST

D’Backs - J.J. Putz – No competition.

Dodgers - Jonathan Broxton or Kenley Jansen

Giants - Brian Wilson _ No competition.

Padres - Heath Bell – No competition.

Rockies - Huston Street  - No competition.