What’s Happened To David Price?

 

His start over the weekend went from bad to worse. When he left the game he was charged with 4 earned runs. Then shortly after the game, the official scorer changed an error on Zobrist and that put Price on the hook for 9 earned runs.  That put his season stat’s to an abysmal 1W 3L with a 6.25 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. He has now given up over 50% of his 2012 earned run total in just 7 starts. Hitters are pounding him to a tune of a .302 average.  The major reason for his inflated numbers this year is what he is doing with RISP.  Hitters are drilling him to a tune of a .478 average with RISP and 2 outs. In previous years he has dominated in those situations. He has only 1 K in those situations where as in the past he has posted a K 24% of the time.

April's Surprise Players

Now that we are into May let’s look back on some of the biggest surprises of April at each position. These players and their hot starts may not translate into yearlong Fantasy studs but they are worth a look and some are readily available in most leagues. The major criteria I looked at were Fantasy counting numbers and average draft position. What we can learn is that there is so much value late in drafts that drafting players in rounds 10-15 that out produce their counterparts will propel you the top of your leagues every year. Then there are those undrafted players who thrust themselves into mainstream Fantasy radar every year. So here is a snapshot by each position on who has come out of the April gate on fire.

Stanton Down & Ozuna Up

With Giancarlo Stanton being shelved for a few weeks the Marlins have called up Marcell Ozuna.  Ozuna was a dangerous power hitter in the Marlins low minor’s organization. In fact, he has only played 10 games above A ball but in the last two years he has put nearly identical slash lines. 2011 and 2012 he hit .266 with 23 HRs and 24 HRs. He had slightly more Doubles too. This season in Jacksonville he was hitting .316 with 5HR. He will slide into right field and probably hit 5^th in the lineup. This could be a showcase for the Marlins and if Ozuna can hit MLB pitching Stanton would be on the move for a boatload of prospects sooner than later.

Expect some occasional mammoth power and a very high strike out rate. I know it is hard to own anybody in a Marlins uniform but if you are desperate for some power in your lineup it might be worth picking up Ozuna for a week and try to get a couple of HRs. Ozuna does have some 10-15 SB speed so a nice parker and pilfer could happen in the same game.  The down side is his low contcat rate so your BA could take the brunt of the disappointment. Personally I will not be picking up Ozuna in any leagues because he is a true boom or bust fantasy player. If I had to compare him to a player it would be Dayan Viciedo but with more speed.

The Magnificent Marwin Gonzalez...Who?

So who is Marwin Gonzalez? That’s what I said when I first heard his name. That time came when he was the one who broke up Yu Darvish’s perfect game earlier this month. Since then he has beaten out the career light hitting Ronnie Cedeno for the stating SS position in Houston.

An Angel Will Be Stealing

I recently picked up Peter Bourjos in every league he was available. I had him on my watch list since the drafts ended and thought he would have increased fantasy value if he could hit in the 2 hole this year. Well, Scioscia has actually put him in lead off since the Aybar injury.

I didn’t have Bourjos on my radar for his BA but he is going into tonight hitting over .300 with an OBP of .380. Though he has not even attempted a SB this year he is one of the fastest men in baseball. Now that he is hitting leadoff I expect him to start running and showcasing his blazing speed on the base paths.   One reason he is now leading off is he has a modest 6 game hit streak and has more walks than Ks in the last 10 days. As I mentioned here back in February, Bourjos was the forgotten man in the Angels potent line up. Remember just a few years ago he was hyped as much as Trout was in the Minors.

If Bourjos can continue to draw some walks I am expecting a small explosion in SB in the next month. He once swiped 50 in the minors and 22 as recent as 2011. A top the Angels order the Runs should come in bunches too. A great pick up this week as he is only owned in 9% of Yahoo Leagues, 7% of ESPN. Do not expect the BA to stay north of 300 but as Bourjos matures, age 26 season, he gets better and better. He should beat out at least 1 infield hit a week. Remember that the Angels GM had every chance to move him once Hamilton signed but he was the one who stayed this winter…not Morales or Wells.

Closer News

The changes come quick and often in Detroit. Many thought Rondon would be the closer for the Tigers and I saw him scooped up in many leagues. Then Leyland told the media that Valverde and his post Save Dance had been signed and will be closing games starting Wednesday.

As you all remember Valverde had 35 Saves last year but fell out of favor after an atrocious post season. He then had trouble finding work and didn’t sign MBL contract. Well he’s back and to me the post season, big lights, high drama means nothing to the Fantasy community. Valverde can pitch, he can collect Saves with that team, and he has significant value.

In other Closer news it looks like Rodney has no way to replenish his pixie dust magic from last year as I predicted, as he blew the game tonight after a solid Price outing. Look for Farnsworth to make the jump back into his closer role that he held in 2011 sooner than later.

Most Added Analysis

Here is a compiled look at the most added players this week in fantasy baseball and my analysis on each.

Rk	Player	% Change
1	Crawford, Brandon SS SF	36
2	Quintana, Jose SP CHW	36
3	Bailey, Andrew RP BOS	34
4	Corbin, Patrick SP ARI	31
5	Cingrani, Tony RP CIN	30
6	Villanueva, Carlos RP CHC	29
7	Johnson, Chris 3B ATL	25
8	Mujica, Edward RP STL	25
9	Detwiler, Ross SP WAS	22
10	Davis, Wade RP KC	21
11	Betancourt, Y. 2B MIL	18
12	Cabrera, Everth SS SD	16
13	Gattis, Evan OF ATL	16
14	Schierholtz, Nate RF CHC	16