Big Dog Gets Rated

Big Dog contacted me and wanted his draft reviewed (good or bad). This is a 12 team 5X5 Roto League with 1C, 4OF, CI, MI 9P and 5 Bench. This league also has unlimited innings pitched and weekly line-ups. This current league consists mostly of the same managers for the last decade.

 

1.	(5)	Andrew McCutchen(Pit - OF)
2.	(20)	Buster Posey(SF - C,1B)
3.	(29)	Jason Heyward(Atl - OF)
4.	(44)	Starlin Castro(ChC - SS)
5.	(53)	Jason Kipnis(Cle - 2B)
6.	(68)	Joe Mauer(Min - C,1B)
7.	(77)	Michael Bourn(Cle - OF)
8.	(92)	James Shields(KC - SP)
9.	(101)	Brandon Morrow(Tor - SP)
10.	(116)	Josh Johnson(Tor - SP)
11.	(125)	Jim Johnson(Bal - RP)
12.	(140)	Nick Swisher(Cle - 1B,OF)
13.	(149)	Ryan Vogelsong(SF - SP)
14.	(164)	Huston Street(SD - RP)
15.	(173)	Kendrys Morales(Sea - 1B)
16.	(188)	Brandon League(LAD - RP)
17.	(197)	Matt Garza(ChC - SP)
18.	(212)	Jeremy Hellickson(TB - SP)
19.	(221)	Pedro Alvarez(Pit - 3B)
20.	(236)	Ryan Madson(LAA - RP)
21.	(245)	Wandy Rodriguez(Pit - SP)
22.	(260)	Omar Infante(Det - 2B)
23.	(269)	Starling Marte(Pit - OF)
24.	(284)	Brandon Beachy(Atl - SP)
25.	(293)	Mark Buehrle(Tor - SP)
26.	(308)	Michael Saunders(Sea - OF)
27.	(317)	Denard Span(Was - OF)

 

Runs: Average: Only 1 leadoff hitter in Bourne but many 3 hole hitters. With players from low scoring teams like the Cubs, Twins, and Indians runs could be tough to produce.

Average: Above Average: With 4 of his top 7 picks sporting a .300 BA this could be an asset to his team. Kipnis was a trendy pick this year but his 2^nd half of 2012 was dismal with 3HR 27 RBI and a .233 BA. Hard to figure what player will show up or will the sophomore slump ascend. Alvarez and his career .237 average is a drain.

Stolen Bases: Elite: 4 players will get 20+ and Bourne will clear 40.

Home Runs: Below Average: Much will depend on Morales and Alvarez getting to 30 each. The rest are mostly high teen/low 20s HR hitters.

RBI: Below Average: It will really take all your players to get 10 more RBI than their career highs to move into the upper level in this league.  Even though you have many 3 hole hitters it will take Heyward to hit in a power spot and not 2^nd in the line up to help you with RBI. The same goes for Castro. If he hits 2^nd RBI opportunities drop off.

Wins: The most volatile stat to predict. With Garza and Beachy hurt to start the year you should pick up some 2 start pitchers starting ASAP to just keep pace. You have selected 3/5^th of the Toronto rotation and I have Toronto in the World Series this year but they pitch in the tough AL East.

Saves: Above Average: You did what you have to do in 12 team leagues…get at least 3 Closers.

ERA: Below Average: With so many of your SP in the AL East look for some inflated ERAs from your staff.

WHIP: Average: ERA and WHIP usually go hand in hand though you have some of the better RPs and Buehrle has an outstanding WHIP at the Rogers Center. You may be the exception to the rule with WHIP this year.

Ks: Elite: If Garza comes back sooner than later you have 3 legit 200K SP with 2 others at 180. Remember this is an unlimited innings pitched  league so streaming 2 start pitchers will be necessary to keep the elite status.

My conclusion is you finish the season

Runs 7

Average 9

Stolen Bases 11

Home Runs 2

RBI 4

Wins 7

Saves 9

ERA 5

WHIP 8

Ks 10

Total 72 Points and a 6^th Place Finish

Any Fantasy Surprises on Opening Day?

The big 4 of Trout, Cabrera, Braun, and Cano went a combined 3 for 19 with only 2 Runs, 2 RBIs and no HR or SB.

One player I picked up after most drafts were completed was Gerardo Parra. I saw he would be hitting lead off once Eaton got hurt. He went 4 for 5 yeaterday with 3 doubles which 1 should have been a HR as it went 413 feet off the wall. He is only owned in 7% of leagues and is a great player to pick up.

Freddie Freeman and the other OF in the desert AJ Pollock collected 3 hits each.

13 players scored 2x yesterday including Boston’s rookie Jackie Bradley. He was the only one to accomplish that feat without the benefit of a hit.

Young phenom Harper was the only player to go long 2 times. And of course he set a record for being the youngest to do so on opening day. This will be the first of many "youngest firsts" for Harper this year.

We had a single grand salami yesterday, put up by Mets CF Collin Cowgill. He is one of the few who throws left and bats right.  I just picked him up for my farm team in my Dynasty League.

Chris Iannetta, who I had as a great sleeper in 2C formats, went long and drove in all 3 runs for the powerful Angels in their 13 inning victory. I tried to trade Iannetta and Chisenhall to a manager who needed a 3B due to injury and asked for Mauer in return. He cussed me up one side and down the other so I saved his email and cannot wait to send it back to him when Iannetta puts up similar counting stats to Mauer.

Few SBs yesterday, with the usual suspects getting a majority of them. Wright was the only one getting multiple swipes.

6 different Catchers collect 2 hits yesterday. four of the six; Castillo, Buck, Iannetta, and Laird are owned in less than 4% of leagues.

5 SP picked up a W yesterday and did not give up a run while going 7+ innings; Kershaw, Samardzija, Sale, Hernandez, and Strasburg. Hope you own at least one of these studs. Burnett was the only one to collect 10 punch outs. Cain went 6 solid with no runs allowed and K’d 8 in a no decision.

8 players recorded Saves on day one. Some were unexpected of closer opportunities. So I guess the Closer Carousel has started early again this year. Fujikawa relieved both Marmol and Russell to pick up a 1 out Save. He may be a good pick up and is only owned in 45% of leagues. Bedard on Sunday got the 3+ inning Save.  Coke picked up the last two outs in Detroit as the committee did well. Coke, Benoit, and Dotel will all get chances. If you are desperate for Saves, snatch one up.

As far as position eligibility...Alex Gonzalez at 1B. No one in fantasy Baseball has both SS and 1B eligibility. But he will.

Fix My Team...or Maybe Not

Jason writes....

Hi Brett,

We are a 12 team H2H daily league (R, HR, RBI, AVG, OBP, SB – W, L, K’s, SV, ERA, WHIP). We have 6 keepers per team so a lot of the top talents were already off the board. There is a cap of 9 pitchers on the roster so we have 5 bench spots.

Here is how my lineup plays out currently:

C – Mike Napoli

1b – Paul Goldschmidt

2b – Rickie Weeks

SS – Josh Rutledge

3b – Mike Moustakas

OF – Mike Trout

OF – Giancarlo Stanton

OF – Jacoby Ellsbury

Util – Mike Morse

BN – Ryan Doumit

BN – Jeff Keppinger

BN – Jed Lowrie

BN – Chris Carter

BN – Hanley Ramirez (Going to DL when eligible)

SP – Justin Verlander

SP – Clayton Kershaw

SP – Stephen Strasburg

SP – Marco Estrada

SP – Tommy Hanson

SP – Shaun Marcum

RP – Greg Holland

RP – Glen Perkins

RP – Kenley Jansen

DL- Michael Pineda

I was wondering what position or a guy that you might like that might be on the waivers to target when I put Hanley on the DL and I was thinking about moving Marcum for Ryu? Any other thoughts on what I should do?

Thank you,

Jason

Overall you have a tremendous team.  Napoli will get you well above ABs than most players who are C eligible, Goldy can go 20/20 at 1B, and Weeks has the ability to go 20/20 if he can stay healthy. I targeted Rutledge in most leagues this year and he will have 2B and SS eligibility soon. Moustakas could be a drain on your BA and I wish he would take more BB but he will start the season in the clean-up position with Butler hitting 3^rd so he will have many chances to drive in runs. Your OF can not get much better in a 3 OF format. As far as your question as to replacing Han Ram while on DL you may want to look at Solano for Miami. He has 2B 3B and OF eligibility which is great flexibility in H2H leagues. He could hit 2^nd 6^th or 7^th and has a career .295 BA and a .342 OBP. Your bench is beyond solid with flexibility but may be in need of a little speed.

Your SPs are just plain sick!! With Marcum going on the DL and may not be ready by next week you should pick up another SP. Detwiler for Washington could be available and I love his peripherals and that offense in DC.  With this team you posted you should have an easy .620 winning percentage and dominate your league. Good Luck!!

Audacious Predictions…Write em’ Down Anyway

World Series: Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers

NL Bombshell: Miami only wins 55 games

AL Bombshell: Yankees finish under .500

NL MVP: Ryan Braun

AL MVP: Josh Hamilton

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw

AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez

NL Rookie of the Year: Oscar Taveras

AL Rookie of the Year: Danny Hultzen

NL Surprise Player: Anthony Rizzo

AL Surprise Player: Jesus Montero

NL Round 1-2 Busts: Carlos Gonzalez

AL Round 1-2 Busts: Adrian Beltre

NL Over Hyped/Under Achiever: Allen Craig

AL Over Hyped/Under Achiever: Jason Kipnis

NL Comeback Player of the year: Chase Utley

AL Comeback Player of the Year: Victor Martinez

First Manager Fired: Terry Collins

Crazy Prediction: Astros have three separate 10 game losing streaks

First Player Arrested after Opening Day: Yunel Escobar

That's 20 predictions for the season...let’s hear yours...get the most right and I will give you credit and let your voice be heard here at the start of next season. You will also be given a moniker of your choice. Submit Predictions Here

"Fix My Team" H2H Version

Hi Brett,

We are a 12 team H2H daily league (R, HR, RBI, AVG, OBP, SB – W, L, K’s, SV, ERA, WHIP). We have 6 keepers per team so a lot of the top talents were already off the board.

Here is how my lineup plays out currently:

C – Salvador Perez

1b – Paul Konerko

2b – Brandon Phillips

SS – Asdrubal Cabrera

3b – Adrian Beltre

OF – Jose Bautista

OF – Carlos Gonzalez

OF – Bryce Harper

Util – Chris Davis

BN – Todd Frazier

BN – Matt Carpenter (was expecting 2b eligibility right away but once Freese is back he will get it shortly)

BN – Jed Lowrie

BN – Leonys Martin

BN – Manny Machado

SP – David Price

SP – Adam Wainwright

SP – Yovani Gallardo

SP – Jordan Zimmermann

SP – Ian Kennedy

SP – Dan Haren

SP – Marco Estrada

RP – Sergio Romo

RP – Bobby Parnell

I see saves and speed as my weaknesses but feel I should still be fairly competitive each week in those categories. I am interested in your thoughts as I am being hounded with trade offers from other owners for several of my SP, none of which have been worthwhile in my opinion, and would like a 2^nd set of eyes to see what/who I should target if I were to make move.

 

Thanks for the question Josh,

First thing I would do is get one of the “closer by committee” members in Detroit. Benoit, Alburquerque, Coke, and Dotel in that order.  . With some of the recent injuries at 3B to open the season, try and move Frazier or Machado for a Closer or some speed like SS Escobar in KC. It would be nice to slide in some speed to your Utility spot on off days or coming into the weekend if you are comfortably ahead in other hitting categories. Not sure why you have some many bats on your bench. I would prefer fewer players and more players with position flexibility. Look for Keppinger on Waivers. He is only player to have 1B, 2B, 3B eligibility. He is someone who will not hurt you in any category and owning him is like owning 3 players in H2H leagues. Maybe even Doumit with both C and OF eligibility.  Then try and get someone who can get Vulture Saves like Fujikawa for the Cubs, Boggs in St.Louis or Matt Thornton for the White Sox. Your SP is definitely your strength, ERA,Ks, and Wins. You have no need to stream every week and if you did decide to move a SP I would go with Haren. Overall good team and should do well.

Each Teams #5 SP Battles

With drafts under way in full force it is important to look at all possible position battles and that includes Starting Pitchers. I have compiled a list of all battles the for the final week of Spring training. This list includes rookies trying to break camp, veterans trying to continue on for another year and those coming off surgery. Some teams have locked up their #5 while others have battles and a pitching surplus.

We all know these pitchers will not seek action until mid April when teams first need a 5th starter. This is just more tools for your toolbox come draft day or who to pick up off waiver to stream in 6 weeks. Keep in mind any team on this list could sign Lohse this week and bump any or all off the chart. Many of the SP will have duel eligibility or just RP eligibility to start the season, that can be a bonus for line-up rostering.

 

Team	SP #5
ARI	* Corbin, Patrick * Delgado, Randall * Hudson, Daniel
ATL	* Teheran, Julio   * Gilmartin, Sean * Beachy, Brandon
CHC	* Villanueva, Carlos * Baker, Scott * Garza, Matt
CIN	* Leake, Mike
COL	* Francis, Jeff * Friedrich, Christian * Chatwood, Tyler
LAD	* Harang, Aaron * Lilly, Ted * Capuano, Chris * Billingsley, Chad
MIA	* Turner, Jacob * Slowey, Kevin * Maine, John
MIL	* Peralta, Wily
NYM	* Gee, Dillon * Mejia, Jenrry * Hefner, Jeremy * McHugh, Collin
PHI	* Lannan, John * Cloyd, Tyler
PIT	* Karstens, Jeff * McPherson, Kyle * Sanchez, Jonathan * Locke, Jeff *  Morton, Charlie
SD	* Garcia, Freddy * Kelly, Casey * Cashner, Andrew * Luebke, Cory * Wieland, Joe
SF	* Vogelsong, Ryan
STL	* Miller, Shelby * Kelly, Joe
WAS	* Detwiler, Ross
Team	SP #5
BAL	* Jurrjens, Jair * Britton, Zach * Arrieta, Jake * Johnson, Steve * Wada, Tsuyoshi
BOS	* Doubront, Felix * Morales, Franklin
CHW	* Axelrod, Dylan * Santiago, Hector * Danks, John
CLE	* Carrasco, Carlos * Tomlin, Josh
DET	* Porcello, Rick * Smyly, Drew
HOU	* Peacock, Brad * White, Alex * Weiland, Kyle
KC	* Chen, Bruce * Mendoza, Luis * Paulino, Felipe * Duffy, Danny
LAA	* Blanton, Joe * Williams, Jerome * Richards, Garrett
MIN	* Deduno, Samuel * De Vries, Cole * Diamond, Scott
NYY	* Nova, Ivan * Phelps, David * Pineda, Michael
OAK	* Straily, Dan * Blackley, Travis * Colon, Bartolo
SEA	* Beavan, Blake * Garland, Jon
TB	* Niemann, Jeff * Archer, Chris * Odorizzi, Jake
TEX	* Ross, Robbie * Lewis, Colby * Feliz, Neftali * Perez, Martin
TOR	* Romero, Ricky * Jenkins, Chad * McGowan, Dustin * Drabek, Kyle * Hutchison, Drew