Time To Stream...2 Start SP

We get our first taste of interleague games next weekend; 8 home games for the NL and 6 for the AL. A majority of our 2 start picks this week are coming from the NL. Stauffer is a great pick up this week. Personally I’ve had him stashed on the DL in many leagues since draft day and now I get to stream him during his first week back.

On a strategy standpoint in Points Leagues; it took me a couple of weeks to realize the importance of SP and especially SP who get 2 starts a week. From this point on I have almost completely abandoned Saves so I able to stream a couple new SPs every week. Since the realization about SP Points I have reeled off 3 straight Wins in the H2H league. This week I will lead the league in Points. Once you secure a QS in Points Leagues the points are far more outweighed than any hitter for the night. Example: 40.5 points for Weaver after his no hitter and 30 points for Hamilton after his 5 for 5 game with 4 HR and 8 RBI.  Yes, these are extremes but I think you get the point.

Ross Detwiler 49% owned (SD vs. Stauffer & BAL vs. Hammel)

Ryan Vogelsong 43 % owned (COL vs. Friedrich & OAK vs. Ross)

Joe Blanton 15% owned (HOU vs. Harrell & BOS vs. Lester)

Tim Stauffer 18% (at WAS vs. Detwiler & LAA vs. Haren)

Paul Maholm 3% owned (at STL vs. Lohse & CHW vs. Peavy)

Kevin Correia 2% owned (at MIA vs. Johnson & at DET vs. Scherzer)

Jeanmar Gomez 2% owned (at MIN vs. Pavano & MIA vs. Sanchez)

Ivan Nova 50% owned (at BAL vs. Hammel & CIN vs. Bailey)

Last week’s Streamers

The BABIP Infusion

Time to study the early BABIP since we are 20% into the season. For me BABIP is a great indicator for players I would expect to decrease or increase in fantasy value over the next few weeks. The one caveat I have for BABIP is that speedsters have the ability to inflate or keep inflated their BABIP simply due to beating out a couple of infield hits a week. So when evaluating players based on BABIP I set that subset off to the side.

Last year the range of BABIP for everyday players that had 420+ hard hit balls ranged from .380 for Kemp and Adrian Gonzalez to .214 for Vernon Wells. It is widely assumed that a typical league average BABIP is .300 and that is watch I use for my own benchmark. Other will argue it can vary by several points in either direction.

In 2011 the MLB average was .295 for BABIP. That was actually the lowest number over the last 6 seasons. Throughout the 21^st century it has ranged from a high of .303 to low of .293 and 20 years ago it was .285, remember that was the height of the steroid era and balls were clearing the fences at a much more regular pace thus lowering the BABIP.

For us Fantasy players it’s time to list the current leaders and laggers as far as BABIP. I was surprised by how high some players were currently. These are the ones to target for a sharp decline in fantasy production. The laggers should be great buy low candidates due to their slow starts and soon to be increase in production. Here is the current info. Use it to your advantage.

Bryan LaHair	0.511
Ryan Sweeney	0.436
Kirk Nieuwenhuis	0.433
David Wright	0.427
Matt Kemp	0.423
Derek Jeter	0.402
Jon Jay	0.397
Josh Hamilton	0.395
Rafael Furcal	0.393
Starlin Castro	0.393
Ruben Tejada	0.391
Andrew McCutchen	0.386
Michael Bourn	0.384
Adam LaRoche	0.382
Jordan Schafer	0.382
Austin Jackson	0.382
Joey Votto	0.378
Miguel Montero	0.377
Chris Johnson	0.377
A.J. Ellis	0.375
Jose Altuve	0.373
Elvis Andrus	0.371
David Ortiz	0.371

Lagging behind…look for increased production

Jose Bautista	0.167
Eric Hosmer	0.168
Clint Barmes	0.185
Casey Kotchman	0.201
Justin Smoak	0.203
Scott Rolen	0.203
Mark Teixeira	0.208
Adam Lind	0.211
Nick Hundley	0.211
Ike Davis	0.214
Brian McCann	0.215
Rickie Weeks	0.216
Jemile Weeks	0.218
J.J. Hardy	0.219
Albert Pujols	0.221
Todd Helton	0.227
Ian Stewart	0.227
Ben Zobrist	0.228

Just My Opinion

By Corey R. Cunningham

In recent years, the levels of the minor leagues get harder, and harder to move up. In order to be a successful player in the MLB, you more than likely need to work your way through various minor league levels.. You could start out at extended spring training, and work your way to short season, and then on your way to Low-A, all the way to AAA minor league baseball.

Over the past couple years, I have attended more and more minor league games, mostly at the Low A, and High A levels. I have visited on occasion an AA ball park or two, and once I visited an AAA ball park. I have been around many knowledgeable people who know more about the game than I do. From what I gather, pitchers who pitch at the AAA level, most of them are career minor league pitchers. What I mean is, if a AAA pitcher has two or more years at the AAA level more than likely he has not been successful in the Majors. This is not true for all pitchers; however, I do not want any getting caught up in AAA stats for pitchers.

I have also been rumored to hear, the best pitching comes at the AA level. This is where the real work begins and ends, and AAA is seasoning for hitters. Most or all your best pitchers get their work in at the AA level, and this is where they work out their kinks in order for a couple AAA starts and then onto the Majors. I have recently looked into AAA pitchers stats, and most of them are common of the level of the Majors, however, that is not always great news. If a pitcher has a ERA of 3.50 or higher in AAA, there is a chance that number would increase at the MLB level. If you look at some or most AAA rosters for pitchers, there will be very familiar names there, that is why some pitchers come to contract agreements with teams in what is called, ‘minor league deal’.

Again, this is all opinion and hears say, however, to most a true statement. If you want to look towards the future for your roster for pitching depth, take a look at AA pitcher stats. Pitchers, who can pitch at the AA level, are more successful than pitchers who pitch several years at the AAA level. Keep in mind, these several young pitching starts are approaching or have approached the AA level, and keep an eye on the numbers for future minor league drafts, and possibly future MLB drafts:

PIT-Jameson Taillon

BAL-Dylan Bundy

BOS-Matt Barnes

KC-Jake Odorizzi

DET-Jacob Turner

STL-Shelby Miller

SEA-Danny Hultzen

SD-Casey Kelly         

NYM-Zack Wheeler

OAK-A.J. Cole

ARI-Tyler Skaggs

ARI-Trevor Bauer

The following players will gain position eligibility by the end of the week in many formats. Some interesting developments include Liddi for Seattle gaining 1B eligibility; Sogard in Oakland could pick up SS eligibility, and the speedy Lillibridge at 3B. To me position flexibility is key in daily leagues giving you the ability to slide in additional players during off days, day games after night games when some regulars get a day off, and any hole you have in your line-up due to injury. Some of these players could become valuable assets to your bench moving forward.

Catcher

No one

1B

Jim Thome                 1 start

Alex Liddi                  1 start

Justin Turner              2 starts

Greg Dobbs               2 starts

2B

Andy Parrino              1 start

Don Murphy               1 start

Eduardo Escobar        1 start

Eric Sogard                 2 starts

3B

Brent Lillibridge          1 start

Jason Donald              2 start

Joe Mather                 2 starts

Will Rhymes               2 starts

SS

No one

OF

Brandon Allen             2 starts

Poor or No Production from Youngsters

By Corey R. Cunningham

  Young 1B Justin Smoak was traded from the Texas Rangers to the Seattle Mariners for Cliff Lee. Smoak who was suppose to be an above average first baseman has yet to prove his due diligence in the MLB. Smoak in this young season is hitting just .175, 3 HR, 10 RBI, and 9R in 103 AB’s. Seattle is just 7 games behind West Division Leader Texas, they still have a shot like the other teams, but not when your first baseman is hitting .175. Not sure the options they will explore here, perhaps a trade for 1B Bryan LaHair of the Cubs, or perhaps even 1B/3B Kevin Youkilis who is in his last year of his contract in Boston. Another scenario is moving Liddi to 1B. Smoak has been dropped in several leagues and continues to fall. I advise to use him on your roster at your own risk.

Toronto Blue Jays starting CF Colby Rasmus has yet to live up to his hype. Rasmus was acquired from the Cardinals, and was a highly touted product at one point in his young career. Rasmus had his best year in St. Louis in 2010 where he had 464 AB’s, 23 HR, and hit for .276. Once he was traded, his stock dropped tremendously. Rasmus has now played in 29 games, with 100 AB’s hitting a messily .210 with 3 HR, 11 RBI, and 11 R. I thought Colby was poised for a break out campaign in 2012 and was hoping to move on his stock once it rose, however, it never rose. I recently cut Rasmus off my team, and have looked for better options at the OF position. 

San Francisco LF/1B Brandon Belt is yet another example of poor producing highly touted prospects. Brandon made his MLB debut last year with the Giants, and had a subpar performance at best. Belt appeared in 63 games last year, and had only a .225 BA, with 9 HR, and 18 RBI. In 2012 Belt’s numbers look like this, 22 games, .278 BA, 0 HR, and 5 RBI. Those stats are opposite of what Belt accomplished during the minors in 2010 and 2011. Take a look at these numbers in AAA Fresno last year; 49 Games, 8 HR, 32 RBI, and a .309 BA. In 2010 a combination of High-A San Jose, AA Richmond, and AAA Fresno Belt had a combo of .352 BA, 23 HR, 112 RBI and 22 SB. Bruce Bochey noted before, Belt was not on a short leash and looks to be getting more playing time with Aubrey Huff on the DL, however, his production has not come with the bat yet, and the Giants are waiting patiently, however, not sure how much longer they will wait for their big prospect to show up. I would keep Belt around for a while, as I still have him stashed on my bench, yet I do not play him often.

Scouring the Pebbles

When Eric Young Jr. left for Mississippi to care for his elderly grandfather after a stroke, the Rockies called up Jordan Pacheco from AAA. This is Pacheco’s 2^nd stint this year with the big league club. He broke camp with the club after spring training as a reserve infielder and 3^rd catcher. Though he hit only .200 in 10 at bats with irregular playing time with the Rockies, he hit .433 (29-for-67) with four doubles, three home runs, and 10 RBIs in 17 games for the Sky Sox. Pacheco was sent to the Sky Sox on April 15 to give him regular playing time at third base and improve his instinctive reactions to batted balls.

He got the start on Monday and finished 0-3 with a BB. One of those ABs could have been scored a sacrifice, anyway he did not get the ball out of the infield while hitting 2^nd in the order. Pacheco is a promising offensive prospect but isn't expected to see a whole lot of at-bats with the Rockies this time around. He has more long-term Fantasy appeal than he does immediate value. That is why I picked him up recently in my Dynasty League after making a trade for Ben Zobrist. I gave up Jed Lowrie and Wandy Rodriguez for Zobrist then called up Jarrod Parker from my farm team and replaced him with Pacheco.

Just remember he has all the tools to hit, especially in Coors field. The Rockies are confident Pacheco can hit big league pitching but say he needs more seasoning at 3B. Once he gets a position on the field he will flourish. Remember he was brought up as a catcher through their system, has played both 1B and 2B too. In Yahoo formats he qualifies at both 1B nd 3B but inb ESPN leagues only at 1B for now.

Cleveland Second Baseman Rocks

By Corey R. Cunningham

Jason Kipnis is the starting 2B for the Cleveland Indians. Kipnis who is in his first full season of ball for the Indians has been on a tear latley and continues to contribute for the Tribe. Kipnis is one of the better offensive 2B in the game as we speak as far as putting up solid numbers. Who would have guessed by this time now, Kipnis would have better numbers than Robinson Cano, not I.

Kipnis is owned in 83% of the leagues and should be well stashed away on minor league rosters. No way should Kipnis be left on the FA wire, unless you have small team rosters which only allows for minimum space. If you play in CI and MI formats, you need to have the MI spot occupied by this young kid. Before today's stats, Kipnis was hitting .296, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 17 R, and 6 SB.

Today, Kipnis was facing RHP Yu Darvish, who the Texas Rangers signed this off season with a hefty pay tag. Darvish went pitching into Cleveland with out a loss, however, welcome to Ohio Darvish, you lose. Kipnis who batted second in the game went 1-2 with 2 BB and a HR. Kipnis hit his 5th HR of the season off Darvish, and gave Kipnis a batting average of .300.

Kipnis should be in everyones starting lineup an if he is on the FA wire, you might want to pick him up. As far as owners go, Kipnis who is all of 5ft 11 inches and 185 LBs, think wether or not you want to sell high now, or ride Kipnis all the way to the end of the season.