Time to study the early
BABIP since we are 20% into the season. For me BABIP is a great indicator for
players I would expect to decrease or increase in fantasy value over the next
few weeks. The one caveat I have for BABIP is that speedsters have the ability
to inflate or keep inflated their BABIP simply due to beating out a couple of
infield hits a week. So when evaluating players based on BABIP I set that
subset off to the side.
Last year the range of
BABIP for everyday players that had 420+ hard hit balls ranged from .380 for
Kemp and Adrian Gonzalez to .214 for Vernon Wells. It is widely assumed that a
typical league average BABIP is .300 and that is watch I use for my own
benchmark. Other will argue it can vary by several points in either direction.
In 2011 the MLB average
was .295 for BABIP. That was actually the lowest number over the last 6
seasons. Throughout the 21st century it has ranged from a high of
.303 to low of .293 and 20 years ago it was .285, remember that was the height
of the steroid era and balls were clearing the fences at a much more regular
pace thus lowering the BABIP.
For us Fantasy players it’s time to list the current leaders
and laggers as far as BABIP. I was surprised by how high some players were
currently. These are the ones to target for a sharp decline in fantasy
production. The laggers should be great buy low candidates due to their slow
starts and soon to be increase in production. Here is the current info. Use it
to your advantage.
|
Bryan LaHair
|
0.511
|
|
Ryan Sweeney
|
0.436
|
|
Kirk Nieuwenhuis
|
0.433
|
|
David Wright
|
0.427
|
|
Matt Kemp
|
0.423
|
|
Derek Jeter
|
0.402
|
|
Jon Jay
|
0.397
|
|
Josh Hamilton
|
0.395
|
|
Rafael Furcal
|
0.393
|
|
Starlin Castro
|
0.393
|
|
Ruben Tejada
|
0.391
|
|
Andrew McCutchen
|
0.386
|
|
Michael Bourn
|
0.384
|
|
Adam LaRoche
|
0.382
|
|
Jordan Schafer
|
0.382
|
|
Austin Jackson
|
0.382
|
|
Joey Votto
|
0.378
|
|
Miguel Montero
|
0.377
|
|
Chris Johnson
|
0.377
|
|
A.J. Ellis
|
0.375
|
|
Jose Altuve
|
0.373
|
|
Elvis Andrus
|
0.371
|
|
David Ortiz
|
0.371
|
Lagging behind…look for increased production
|
Jose Bautista
|
0.167
|
|
Eric Hosmer
|
0.168
|
|
Clint Barmes
|
0.185
|
|
Casey Kotchman
|
0.201
|
|
Justin Smoak
|
0.203
|
|
Scott Rolen
|
0.203
|
|
Mark Teixeira
|
0.208
|
|
Adam Lind
|
0.211
|
|
Nick Hundley
|
0.211
|
|
Ike Davis
|
0.214
|
|
Brian McCann
|
0.215
|
|
Rickie Weeks
|
0.216
|
|
Jemile Weeks
|
0.218
|
|
J.J. Hardy
|
0.219
|
|
Albert Pujols
|
0.221
|
|
Todd Helton
|
0.227
|
|
Ian Stewart
|
0.227
|
|
Ben Zobrist
|
0.228
|
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