ADP and Runs Leaders

For our Runs list vs ADP I compiled everyone that contributed at least .5 R per game last year. The list includes 62 players. We have 15 new names that we have not seen as of yet. For those 15 newbies, I placed their names in bold for quick reference. Typically if a player is not a HR threat the Runs category will be lead by players who hit high in the order and/or players with a high OBP because they take many walks and HBP throughout the season. The only 2 players who did not make the cut on our Runs list from our 20, 100, .280 crew were Delmon Young and Corey Hart. They both typically batted 6th in their respective lineups, thus the regression compared to others. The lower in the batting order a player hits tends to lead to a decrease in Runs scored. So target lead off hitters and 2 hole hitters if you want to punch up the Runs category in your league. Just remember certain statistics correlate to one another. Players who steal bases tend to bat higher in the lineup, in front of the heavy hitters, where they score more runs. So guess what is on deck for tomorrow...yep SB leaders.

PLAYER	RUNS	ADP
Albert Pujols	115	1.2
Mark Teixeira	113	14.2
Rickie Weeks	112	40.7
Derek Jeter	111	47.8
Miguel Cabrera	111	3.1
Carlos Gonzalez	111	6.7
Carl Crawford	110	16.6
Jose Bautista	109	53.7
Jayson Werth	106	52.8
Joey Votto	106	7.1
Robinson Cano	103	9.7
Austin Jackson	103	329.4
Ryan Braun	101	12.3
Aubrey Huff	100	108.2
Brandon Phillips	100	34.4
Dan Uggla	100	52.6
Martin Prado	100	73.3
Michael Young	99	77.6
Brett Gardner	97	229.9
Juan Pierre	96	131.4
Evan Longoria	96	4.9
Josh Hamilton	95	11.8
Matt Holliday	95	22.8
Prince Fielder	94	22.1
Chris Young	94	184.1
Andrew McCutchen	94	50.3
Michael Cuddyer	93	154.7
Kelly Johnson	93	113.3
Hunter Pence	93	85.2
Marco Scutaro	92	242.5
Hanley Ramirez	92	2.1
Nick Swisher	91	226.9
Corey Hart	91	108.7
Drew Stubbs	91	203.2
Paul Konerko	89	70.6
Alex Rios	89	64.9
B.J. Upton	89	72.2
Troy Tulowitzki	89	4.6
Bobby Abreu	88	122.1
Joe Mauer	88	19.6
Elvis Andrus	88	68.8
Adrian Gonzalez	87	8.6
David Wright	87	9.8
Ryan Howard	87	15.9
David Ortiz	86	168.5
Adam Dunn	85	50.2
Ryan Zimmerman	85	21.1
Colby Rasmus	85	95.2
Denard Span	85	165.6
Adrian Beltre	84	49.9
Marlon Byrd	84	363.4
Andres Torres	84	295.5
Shane Victorino	84	130.8
Michael Bourn	84	114.5
Vladimir Guerrero	83	91.1
Jose Reyes	83	26.9
Stephen Drew	83	127.6
Alexei Ramirez	83	104.6
Jason Heyward	83	51.2
Matt Kemp	82	22.7
Johnny Damon	81	263.9
Shin-Soo Choo	81	27.8

ADP Value HR+RBI+BA The Triple Crown of Fantasy

These 18 players all qualified for our list of 20+HR 100+RBI and a +.280BA. So is there value here with their ADP? The top 11 are truly no brainers and deserve a pick in the opening two rounds of any 12 team draft. The next 7 might surprise you. This tier starts with an early 5^th rounder in Beltre. I had Beltre listed as a top 5 3B earlier this month. Zimm and ARod ahead of him. With those two going in the 2nd round you should be getting equal or better production from Beltre 3 rounds later. If he is still on the board late in round 4 grab him like late night munchies (I prefer a burrito as big as my head) after last call.

Uggla is very undervalued at an early 5th rounder too. I had him listed as a top 4 2B on a previous post. You know Cano will go 1st round but Uggla will now hit 3rd in the Braves lineup and will produce. If you are lucky enough to get Cano, Uttley, or Pedroria sneak up on your league and then get the best MI with you 4th or 5th round pick. You will now dominate with a duo putting up 60HR at 2B.

I view Konerko the same as Uggla. Get yourself a solid 1B in the 2 early rounds then slide Konerko into your CI spot in round 6 or before. He will be hitting 5th behind Rios and Dunn. Dunn draws walk now so Konerko will have many (muy mucho for our friends who speak Spanish) ABs with RISP.

Vlad is a wild card here. Depends where he lands and the number of ABs he gets. I would be cautious with Vlad unless he is still around in round 10 for your Utility spot.

Delmon is the 5th OF on this list. If you ask someone to name the 6 OF who hit over 20HR had over 100RBI and batted over .280 last year no one is going to mention Young...except maybe Young himself or his agent. I will be taking him as my 2nd OF in round 7 and then watching all the puzzled looks from my cohorts.

McGahee with an ADP of 108 is toooooooo looooooow. He will move up in drafts and continue to put up numbers as long as Braun and Fielder hit in front of him. 3B is a deep position this year so grab a brew or Brewer before round 9. (hint Brewers will win NL Central this year)

Oh look its another Brewer, Coerey Hart, (he does where sunglasses but not at night) After taking Delmon use you wrap around and snag Hart. You could have Braun, Young, and Hart in you OF and dominate. Once again 18 players are listed here and 3 are Brewers...should be 4 but Fielder couldn't get his BA to equal his weight last year.

PLAYER	POSITION	ADP
Albert Pujols	1B	1.2
Miguel Cabrera	1B	3.1
Evan Longoria	3B	4.9
Carlos Gonzalez	OF	6.7
Joey Votto	1B	7.1
Adrian Gonzalez	1B	8.6
Robinson Cano	2B	9.7
David Wright	3B	10.1
Josh Hamilton	OF	11.8
Ryan Braun	OF	12.3
Matt Holliday	OF	22.8
Adrian Beltre	3B	49.9
Dan Uggla	2B	52.6
Paul Konerko	1B	70.6
Vlad Guerrero	DH	91.1
Delmon Young	OF	104.1
Casey McGehee	3B	107.9
Corey Hart	OF	108.7

ADP and Batting Average Leaders

While looking at last years BA leaders I decided to make the cut for our observation at .280 (surprisingly no one hit at .280). I felt .280 was a good benchmark because most standard 5x5 leagues have a team win the BA stat category with an average at or very near the.280 mark. If you did not realize this figure, that is what you should be shooting for to win your BA category. Yes, some may be higher but you will not be hurt if you can consistently approach that level. 54 players hit above .280 last year. That is less than 2 per each MLB team, it really was the year of the pitcher. BA is not a category I target early in drafts but am aware of if I am on the fence between a couple of players in the mid to late rounds. One good stat beyond the BA is the BABIP (Batting average for balls in play). If you are not familiar with it its time to learn...everyone else in your league will be. This stat shows just how lucky a player was for any given year for balls hit into play, this excludes Ks. Anyhooo here are the players that hit +.280 last year and their ADP. Tomorrow we will look at all the players that have made our list for 100+RBI, 20+HR, +.280BA I think we smell some value.

 

PLAYER	BA	ADP
Josh Hamilton	0.359	11.8
Carlos Gonzalez	0.336	6.7
Miguel Cabrera	0.328	3.1
Joe Mauer	0.327	19.6
Joey Votto	0.324	7.1
Adrian Beltre	0.321	49.9
Omar Infante	0.321	292.3
Robinson Cano	0.319	9.7
Billy Butler	0.318	83.9
Troy Tulowitzki	0.315	4.6
Ichiro Suzuki	0.315	32.5
Matt Holliday	0.312	22.8
Paul Konerko	0.312	70.6
Albert Pujols	0.312	1.2
Martin Prado	0.307	73.3
Carl Crawford	0.307	16.6
Ryan Zimmerman	0.307	21.1
Ryan Braun	0.304	12.3
Victor Martinez	0.302	29.2
Starlin Castro	0.3	156.2
Hanley Ramirez	0.3	2.1
Vladimir Guerrero	0.3	91.9
Shin-Soo Choo	0.3	27.8
Delmon Young	0.298	104.1
Placido Polanco	0.298	306.3
Adrian Gonzalez	0.298	8.6
Nick Markakis	0.297	103.9
Scott Podsednik	0.297	347.3
Jayson Werth	0.296	52.35
Evan Longoria	0.294	4.9
Marlon Byrd	0.293	363.4
Austin Jackson	0.293	329.4
Andre Ethier	0.292	38.6
Angel Pagan	0.29	276.3
Aubrey Huff	0.29	107.4
Nick Swisher	0.288	226.9
Jeff Keppinger	0.288	N/A
Dan Uggla	0.287	52.6
Andrew McCutchen	0.286	50.3
Casey McGehee	0.285	107.9
Scott Rolen	0.285	196.1
Luke Scott	0.284	347.8
Adam Jones	0.284	186.7
Alex Rios	0.284	64.9
Rajai Davis	0.284	290.7
Kelly Johnson	0.284	113.5
Michael Young	0.284	77.6
Corey Hart	0.283	110.1
David Wright	0.283	9.8
Jose Reyes	0.282	26.9
Alexei Ramirez	0.282	104.6
Hunter Pence	0.282	85.3
Torii Hunter	0.281	94.4
Jay Bruce	0.281	79.6