Saturday, June 9, 2012

SP and Low BABIP Leaders



With nearly 60 games played to date we can start to wash out some stats and look for regression to the mean. Today we will look at SP BABIP; the 20 lowest BABIP to be exact. Though BABIP can give us some insight as to how a pitcher fares on the mound it should be noted that luck and defense plays a part in the equation. What I want to point out is that even with an abnormally low BABIP that does not translate to a quality SP. Take Noesi for example the 2nd lowest BABIP so you would think a low ERA and a decent WHIP. Not with Noesi and that is because he has been hampered by the long ball. Giving up 14 HR over his 12 starts; thus leading him to a 5.99 ERA. So when looking at SP BABIP, combine that info with ERA and QS to see if a SP is really on top of their game. Remember that the league average for BABIP is usually around .300 and if a SP you are targeting is extremely on the high or low side of .300 dig deeper and then expect a regression back towards .300. It is one good predictor to measure quality in SPs for Fantasy purposes. Those listed here should have some regression over the next 60 games.



Brandon Beachy
0.203
Hector Noesi
0.216
Brandon Morrow
0.217
Chris Capuano
0.222
Ricky Romero
0.222
Carlos Zambrano
0.225
Jered Weaver
0.227
Kevin Correia
0.229
C.J. Wilson
0.230
Jason Vargas
0.230
Jake Peavy
0.231
Edwin Jackson
0.237
James McDonald
0.239
Barry Zito
0.241
Matt Garza
0.242
Jeremy Hellickson
0.242
Clayton Kershaw
0.242
Ryan Dempster
0.246
Henderson Alvarez
0.246

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