Target & Avoid NY METS

This year’s version of the Mets looks bleak at first glance. They lost their best player to a division rival but have others returning from injury.  If you look back the Mets blew more save chances than anyone in baseball-24 in total. If they could have won half those games they would have looked more like the Braves, at least in record. The biggest thing to remember for the 2012 Mets is that the fences are being brought in. This should definitely help all the RH Mets players. Don’t get me wrong, I do not think the Mets will contend in the East but they will be a respectable team that can finish over .500 in 12’.

TARGET

Jason Bay – OF

Jason Bay is almost a forgotten commodity after coming to the Mets. What people forget is he had nearly 200 HR between the Pirates and RedSox, actually averaging 26HR a year. Since joining the Mets he has grand total of 18 over the last 2 seasons. He had 15 more RBI in his last year in Boston than he has had in NY over the last 2 years. No way will he go that bad at the plate again. Citi Field now has the closer fences which was done with Bay in mind by management. I not saying to draft him as your anchor OF but as a 4^th OF he will out produce your expectations. The former ROY is a career .863 OPS hitter, that is 28^th overall for all active players.

AVOID

The Mets Bullpen for Saves

The reason I say this is because the three who are likely to close; Francisco, Rauch, and Parnell had WHIPs over 1.30 last year. Remember last year when Parnell was to take over the Closers role once Rodriguez went to Milwaukee? Then it went to 40 year old Isringhausen because management did not have confidence in him.  Now comes in Francisco and Rauch from Toronto and their 1.32 and 1.35 WHIPs respectively. The early report is Francisco gets the nod but that can change quickly. Neither is worth a draft pick. If you are strapped for saves after the draft be ready with quick fingers to snag the replacement Closer by early May.

Target & Avoid MIAMI MARLINS

Many Marlins’ fans could not wait to see last year’s season end. They had one of the best Fantasy players slump and then go down with an injury, their best SP battled to only nine start before being shut down, their closer getting caught with a false name and their LF demoted for being juvenile and leading the league in “tweets”.  Now it is 2012. The Marlins have new uniforms, logo and name change. They will showcase their new stadium on opening day. They have a new manager and led the off season with 3 major free agent acquisitions in Reyes, Buehrle, and Bell. This team should be able to garner many more wins than last years 72 win campaign.

TARGET

Anibal Sanchez – SP

In most of the mock drafts I have partaken in this winter I have noticed Sanchez is always the last 200K SP to be taken off the board. That is good for you come draft time and bad for your competition. The 27 year old right-hander posted a stellar 3.67 ERA in nearly 200 innings last year. His K/BB ratio of 202/64 is nearly ace-like. What even bumps his value up more to me is the new ball park. It is suppose to have cavernous dimensions that will help this pitcher even more. Not to mention he is scheduled for free agency after the season.  Combine a 200K a year SP with pitcher-friendly park, entering his free agency year along with a more potent run scoring offense and you have yourself possibly one of the greatest sleepers in the draft this year. I will be reaching for him in all drafts this year.

AVOID

Josh Johnson – SP

Everything I mentioned about external factors helping Sanchez applies to Johnson this season as well. The big difference is Johnson is coming off a major shoulder injury.  He has started a throwing regiment over the last couple of weeks and the Marlins are hoping (their word) their ace can start on opening day. What I am telling you is he is great when healthy but the risk is too high at the moment to draft him as high as the 12th SP off the board. The range from many perts varies from that 12^th ranking to 55^th SP taken. I am leaning for the latter end of the spectrum. I do not want the ace of my fantasy staff going into the season as a high draft pick to be less than dominant coming off injury.  The last thing to remember is Johnson has only 1 MLB season under his belt with 30 or more starts.

Target & Avoid PHILLIES

The Phillies are coming off 5 consecutive NL East titles. Last year they assembled one of the greatest SP rotations in recent memory. Though they lost Oswalt (for the time being) their starting rotation is still their prevalent asset. The team is getting older with both Rollins and Utley losing a step, which will decrease their running game drastically unless Podsednik or Pierre step up and dominate in spring training for the left field spot. Besides the Howard injury/return, the biggest question will be if Dominic Brown can finally put it together like the 5 tool player he was projected to be a couple of years ago. The loss of Madsen and the overpriced signing of Paplebon is nearly a wash.

TARGET

Jonathan Paplebon RP

Paplebon should get more save opportunities than any closer  in baseball this season. The Phillies starting rotation will keep them in every game.  Paplebon also has no problem going 3 days in row on multiple occasions. Over his career Paplebon has been a lights out closer…major stud…in five of the last six seasons he has absolutely dominated. That he pitched in the toughest division in baseball is only added experience in my book. There are no questions about his make-up, his stuff, or his health. I could see him topping 50 saves this year. He will not be the 1^st closer off the board (Kimbrel will). Once the first closer goes you need to take Paplebon if you get a chance.

AVOID

Ryan Howard 1B

The latest on Howard’s injury is “ahead of schedule” according to the Phillies organization. Manuel stated if he is back at the end of May he would be happy.  The fact is someone with his size and that type of injury he will be out 10 months. There is also a greater risk of re-injury if you do not rehab to the full extent. If you are going to try and be sneaky in your draft and pick up Howard in maybe the 7th or 8^th round you are fooling yourself. Look for a return after the All-Star game especially if Philly has a lead in the AL East. I would not draft Howard until at least the 15^th round and then maybe even not. Your best bet is to talk up Howard to your league mates that you expect him to return in May once the weather warms up. Let them waste a draft pick on him this year.

Target & Avoid ATLANTA BRAVES

As we all remember, the Braves collapsed in the dog days of 2011. For 2012 most of the pieces are still in place to compete in 2012. One concern though is the starting rotation, which in the past has been their most solid foundation. Hanson is going back from a torn rotator cuff; Hudson with his back surgery may start the season on the DL. Their greatest asset is the absolutely shutdown back end of the bullpen with Venters and Kimbrel. Veteran leadership should take this team well into contention down the stretch. Come the trade deadline they should make a move for another bat because they have all the pitching in the minors to either bring up or trade away.

TARGET

Jason  Heyward OF

Following his rookie season he was a hyped top 10 fantasy outfielder going into 2011. Now this year he is off most people’s radar.  Especially taking his BA last year near .220 through most of the season. Some of the problems he had last year were definitely due to his shoulder injury/numbness. Remember Chipper telling the sophomore he needed to play through the pain? I do, and his swing was affected dramatically. He had one of the highest pop out rates in the bigs.  He now has been rested this off season, matured more, and work with new hitting coach Greg Walker a bonus. I expect more than just a bounce back season.  Going as late as a 15^th round pick he is a bargain. My projections are: 75/23/75/.255/12

AVOID

Brian McCann C

I not saying pass on the best power hitting catcher in baseball. Well actually I am. He has been drafted as high as 31^st overall at MDC, which absurd for a catcher with his ability. Catcher is a much deeper position than most think this year. Last week I wrote about elite catchers at the top, more than serviceable catchers mid tier and great prospects to gamble on. If you are in a single catcher format do not take McCann, or any catcher before the double digit rounds, there are many other options.  Another aspect that most have not realized is McCann’s back up, Davis Ross would start on a majority of other MLB teams. I expect Ross to take away many ABs from McCann this year. Atlanta will want to keep him fresh for those oppressively hot days in Atlanta come summer.  McCann only had 35 hits after the All-Star break and hit .204 down the stretch. Atlanta in the summer will zap the energy out of anyone.

Target & Avoid TAMPA BAY RAYS

Coming off one the most exciting and dramatic final days in baseball history, the Rays are poised to repeat their flair for the dramatic. The acquisition of former Ray Carlos Pena brings a better glove and OBP than Casey Kotchman at 1B this year. The rotation is scary good and is actually 6-7 deep. I see Niemann being the odd man out after spring training. ROY candidate from last year Desmond Jennings will show Tampa fans why they let Crawford go so easily last year. The biggest problem as always in Tampa is the division they play in, that means seeing the Yankees and Red Sox 36 times again this year. I won’t count Tampa out of the race until they are mathematically eliminated.

TARGET

Matt Moore SP

You may never see again a SP with one start under his belt be the starting pitcher in a playoff game but that is exactly what Moore did last year. The Rays even forked up 39M for a SP with just over 9 career MLB innings. His strengths are  a career 12.2 K/9 ratio throughout his minor league career there is reason to think he cannot bring that to the majors full time this year. The downside to Moore is that he pitches in the toughest hitting division in baseball. Another point to be aware of is that if Tampa is out of the race due to a major collapse the Rays will shut him down in September.  He will be a SP that others will be hesitant to draft in the first dozen rounds but I am targeting him in round 8-10. My projections are as follows: 12W/3.29/1.21/181 and ranked 110 on my 300+ player projections for 2012.

AVOID

James Shields SP

After a stellar 2011 he entered the ALDS with Tampa up 1 game to 0 on Texas. What happened may be due to the numerous innings he put in throughout the year.  His 249 innings was 2^nd only to Verlander. In the playoffs he became uncharacteristically wild plunking couple on Rangers and throwing some wild pitches. Did the massive innings total and his 11 CG hurt him? I believe so. When a young pitcher surpasses his career limits in innings pitched we must be concerned the next year. Was 2011 a career year for Shields? I say yes. He was rarely even drafted in leagues last year and that was because he had an ERA well over 5.00 in 2010. I’m not saying he is going to be that bad but I am also saying he is not going to be as good as 2011. He is definitely usable in all leagues, just do not draft him too early to anchor your team and do not expect a sub 3.00 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP ever again. My projections are as follows: 15W/3.77/1.16/191

Target & Avoid TORONTO BLUE JAYS

The Toronto Blue Jays are a team on the rise.  With 6 seasons in the 80 win range they just can’t find those extra 10 wins to be competitive through the entire season. With the trade to acquire Santos this could be the start to challenging in the AL East. Now they need to find a couple of back end SP to compete every day in baseball’s toughest division.  They have cornerstones in Bautista and Lawrie and need to turn their other power hitters into hitters that can hit for average too. If they can do that they have the potential to be great.

TARGET

Brett Lawrie 3B

When I wrote this post a couple of weeks ago Lawrie was the still a little under the radar but now his is being taken as the fifth 3B off the board at MDC. I expect by next month he could be the third; only behind Longo and Beltre. I am ranking him above both Wright and Zimmerman at this point. To me he IS the next Mike Schmidt with speed. I would not be surprised he becomes a 25/25 guy this year while batting clean-up. He will go before the 50^th pick overall so if you want him reach for him around in the 3^rd round if necessary. My projections for him are: 76R 27HR 88RBI 24SB .285 those are for a 22 year old and future 1^st round pick.

AVOID

Colby Rasmus OF

Coming off his 2010 campaign when his fantasy line was 85R 23HR 66 RBI .276 he was everyone’s next Grady Sizemore. Then came the discussions about his numerous mental lapses and everyday focus for a star player. Next thing he is shipped to Toronto for a SP with only a few months until free agency and a couple of throw in players.  Why would the Cardinals trade someone with such “potential” ? They decided he was not what the hype around him projected. Fast forward 2011; 14HR and hitting .225 that puts him I then David DeJesus and Kosuke Fukudome realm of worthless fantasy OFs. In 2012 he will hit in the 7^th or 8^th hole in Toronto and should continue to struggle and not bounce back. Toronto only offered a 1 year deal this winter which shows they have prospects in the wings waiting to pounce on his CF job. My Projections are: 55R 15HR 55RBI 9SB .232

Target & Avoid YANKEES

The Yankees are coming off a season in which they hit 222 HR and average 5.35 runs a game. This year’s team is older and slower. Granderson will not have a year like 2011, Jeter will be 38 and not running anymore, A-Rod is finally AllGone and is no better than Danny Valencia, Teixeira BA has declined significantly over the last 4 years, and Swisher is a .250 lifetime. The bright side is their revamped pitching staff but remember they pitch in the toughest division in baseball…the hard hitting AL East.

TARGET

Eduardo Nunez 2B-3B-SS

Nunez is going into the season with multi-position eligibility which I covet, especially in daily leagues. With the trade of Montero, their projected DH in 2012, look for A-Rod, Cano, and even Jeter to get time at the DH. When that happens Nunez will get the start in their primary positions. Nunez will be this year’s super-sub. A-Rod won’t play on turf in Toronto and Tampa so insert Nunez. Jeter will not be playing 160 games at 38, Nunez gets the start. Nunez could see action in 130 games this year. Nunez has speed and a little pop. He is the perfect player for your bench that can be placed into a hole in your daily line-up.  Look for 10HR with 30SB. A great find with your last pick or two in any league.

AVOID

Phil Hughes SP

The Yankees 4 top starters are CC, Kuroda, Pineda, and Nova. That leaves Garcia, Burnett, and Hughes to battle for the 5^th spot. As we all know the 5^th SP isn’t even needed until week 3 of the season so if drafted he sits until mid-April.  Remember Hughes was shut down from 4/15 until 7/8 last years with shoulder inflammation. He finished 5 and 5 with an ERA near a touchdown. The Yankees resigned him this year to a 1 year contract that is not even guaranteed with incentive bonuses. Looks to me like they have no real confidence in him at this point.  At best I see him as a spot starter and long relief and then traded mid season for a right-handed bat that can play in the OF. He is a wasted pick in 2012.

Target & Avoid BALTIMORE ORIOLES

What the Orioles and Showalter need to do to compete in 2012 will be to upgrade the rotation. Overall Baltimore’s starting pitchers are young and last year many hit walls and regressed or were injured. They might not be better than their 69 win record last year, though they were still .500 as late as May 26^th, because of their inexperience and inconsistent play but they are moving in the right direction. A strength going forward is they are still a relatively young team, still looking to the future.  Their team goal is player development and injury prevention. The losses of Luke Scott and Vlad should be no consequence to their W/L record. With their obvious weaknesses this year the AL East will eat them alive again.

TARGET

Robert Andino 2B-3B-SS

Andino is another super sub with multi-position eligibility. With the loss of Vlad and Luke Scott that opens up DH for Chris Davis thus leaving 3B open for Andino and if the often injured Brian Robert  doesn’t return he has the 2B job all to himself.  Andino is not going to wow anyone with all the counting numbers needed for fantasy but he is a better option for your MI than most out there with a late round pick. He is the player I love to own in daily leagues purely due to his multi-position eligibility. When he gets the nod he will bat lead-off in Baltimore and produce decent numbers in Runs and SB. He is just a great very late round pick to bolster your bench. My projections are: 66R 8HR 60RBI 18SB .272

AVOID

Brian Roberts 2B

With his concussion related headaches still lingering he hasn’t started any hitting drills to date. With only a month until spring training and him missing significant time over the last 2 years, his days are numbered. Father time has caught him and is dragging him into early retirement at age 34. With only  393 ABs over the last 2 seasons Roberts is of no value this year baseball wise or Fantasy and should actually be traded to any team that would take him. Not worth a draft pick and may only get 200ABs this season just to showcase him for a trade at the deadline.

Target & Avoid BOSTON RED SOX

The Booby Valentine era is under way as the Red Sox 45^th manager in team history. With Valentine you have an experienced manager who has opinions, who is a new-age thinker. He is not an old school guy as anyone could plainly see watching Baseball Tonight over the last couple of years. He thinks outside the box…all the time. Stats mean something to him, numbers mean something to him. He alone will be worth a few extra wins this year. What the Red Sox do need is a better 4^th and 5^th spot SP and an extra power hitting OF to come off the bench or platoon. Even with these inefficiencies I feel Boston is the class of the AL this year.

TARGET

Daniel Bard RP-SP?

Bard, the young fireballer, will be the likely victor to claim one of the last two open spots in the BoSox’ starting rotation. What he needs to prove is that he can have success as a starter after his last two dominating years in the bullpen. What he must do this spring is continue to develop a third pitch to keep hitters off balance for that second and third time through the order. For fantasy purposes we get a SP with RP eligibility. A duel eligibility P with his potential is a must have on any squad. My projections for him are: 11W 3.43ERA 1.19WHIP with 161K.

AVOID

Carl Crawford OF

Crawford is going to be drafted much too early again this year. His first season was already a disappointment and now season 2 will get off to a shakey start. Crawford underwent surgery January 17^th to clean up cartilage in his left wrist and could/will miss the start of the 2012 season. The Red Sox are notorious for downplaying injuries and being overly optimistic about a player’s early return. With the huge investment they have in Crawford they will not rush him out against the green monster until he is 100%. As we have learned about wrist surgeries in the past, it can zap some power and make a hitter reluctant to hit that inside pitch in fear of getting jammed hard and aggravating the wrist problem. Look for an early May return, especially if the Sox start off well and they do not need him immediately. A season of 73R 12HR 68RBI 25SB .269 mediocre at best for the now 31 year old.

Target & Avoid ANAHEIM ANGELS

Is Pujols enough to put the Halos atop the AL West? It is going to take more than just the best hitter over the last decade. With aging Hunter and Abreu the Angels show no real middle of the order threats this year. They have super-hyped prospect Mike Trout who will mature into a true 5 tool player but not at 20 years old. The Los Angeles ,Anaheim, California Angels will sell a ton of tickets, cash in on a new TV contract and run out a great rotation every night but they will still be lucky to qualify for the new 5^th playoff team this year.

TARGET

Ervin Santana – SP

After a superb breakout year in 2008 he dealt with elbow issues in 09’ then recovered in 2010. In 2011 he enjoyed his best year to date. A 3.38 ERA with 178 Ks. Though he is probably the 3^rd best starter on his team he can still anchor your squad this year. His fastball is back at speeds when he broke in and his pin point accuracy is also back on track. He was able to post a BABIP that was .272 and a tad lower than league average. He was also able to post a career best 76.6% LOB%.  I feel these were achieved by flipping his ground ball rate with his fly ball rate. If he keeps that trend in check he will be a great pick up in AL only leagues and very usable in mixed leagues.  My projections are as follows: 13W, 3.71ERA, 1.22WHIP with 160K.

AVOID

Kendrys Morales-1B DH

We all know about the jumping on home plate broken ankle injury. It has turned into the greatest minor ankle break in the history of medicine.  Nearly 2 years later he is starting baseball activities. That’s great for a player that now may not have a position to play. With Trumbo, Pujols, Abreu and Morales all to share time at 1B and DH it looks as though Morales and Abreu lose the most ABs this year.  If you remember Morales has only 1 full MLB season under his belt. It was a good year; 86R 34HR 108RBI and hitting .308 but that was pre Pujols and pre injury.  I expect the Angels to bring him on slowly in his rehab so there are no setbacks which again means limited ABs in 2012. Best case scenario is for the Angels to trade him to another AL team looking for a DH. That best case scenario is slim to none and slim just left the building. Let some other manager in your league draft him this year and watch that team struggle to find the playing time needed to be fantasy relevant. My projections for him are as follows: 60R 23HR 71 RBI while hitting .298 if he can get 450 ABs and Scioscia wants to play him at all.

Target & Avoid TEXAS RANGERS

The Rangers have been a perennial dominate team for the last few years. With the possible addition of Yu Darvish and Prince Fielder some players will get a bump up in value while others will get a knock down in their fantasy worth. Regardless of the two previously mentioned players, the Rangers scored the 3^rd most runs in baseball in 2011. I see them even garnering a few more wins this year to push them over a 100 win season and still beating the new Pujols bolstered Angels.

TARGET

Joe Nathan-Closer

Though he had a +4 ERA last year, over all his final 31 appearances he had a 3.38 ERA with 29 Ks and only 5 BB. As you know he has a career 2.87 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and has a K/9 well over 9. Those are still staggering numbers for a closer. One of my favorite stats that Nathan has posted is a career BAA of .202; as long as he has his control (doesn’t walk anyone) no one hits this guy. IMO he probably came back too early last year and tried to prove too much. Now he is on a better team with many more Save chances while pitching against Oakland and Seattle 36 times next year. He could have 20+ Saves against those two teams alone. Nathan will fall lower in drafts than he should with the impending Feliz to the rotation talk. Nolan Ryan signed this guy for 15 million of 2 years…He IS closing in Texas case closed. My projections for Nathan are as follows: 3W 38S 3.25ERA 1.11WHIP 69K.

AVOID

Michael Young-1B & 3B

The main reason I am avoiding Yong this year is due to the loss of 2B eligibility. The numbers he put up in the past were well above average for a 2B but I want my 1B and 3B to be able to put some more power numbers. Yes he had over 100 RBI last year but he projects to hit in the 2 hole this year and DH which will drop his RBI production, even for the happy hitting Rangers.  His RBI numbers were helped by him having over 200 hits last year. Only 5 players have had over 200 hits in a season over the age of 35 in the last 50 years: Paul Molitor 2X, Al Oliver, Bill Buckner, Pete Rose 3X, and Tony Gwynn.  Does he get his 200+ hits again at 35 years old in 2012? History says it is unlikely. So if you draft Young and have to use him at either corner expect these types of numbers: 85R, 11HR, 88RBI, 6SB and hitting .311 good numbers but they can be had by Davis Freese at 3B 8 rounds later or Gaby Sanchez 1B 10 Rounds later.

Target & Avoid OAKLAND A'S

The Oakland A’s have cleaned house this winter like no team has in recent years. In the process they picked up many of the games top prospects. Though I do not think the A’s will win 60 games this year they are still a MLB team with players that can help our Fantasy Teams.  There may not be a single A’s player before the 20^th round in any type of fantasy league this year but 1 SP is worth a late round flyer, especially in Dynasty or Keeper Leagues.

TARGET

Jarrod Parker –SP

Parker was the star blue tip return in the Trevor Cahill trade. He was the 9^th overall pick in the 2007 draft. Coming off TJ surgery a couple of years ago he was able to pitch and pitch effectively in 2011. He not only pitched well he lost no velocity off his 94 mph fastball after his surgery. He has 3 quality pitches; Fastball that is hard sinking, Change-up that is 12 mph slower than his fastball; a pitch sure to keep hitter of balance. His slider is practically a splitter, and his Curveball has only been used sparingly but it does bend from head to strike zone on right handed hitters. Last year’s number in AA were impressive. He had a 3.79 ERA 112/55 K/BB ratio over 130 innings.  He should project as the A’s 4^th or 5^th starter. If he shakes out to be the A’s 5^th starter he may not get drafted due to not having many starts in April but you should have him on your radar. Come the 3^rd week of the season when all 5^th starters fill in their rotation spot every week he will be off the wire.  My projections for him are: 10W 3.98 ERA 1.29 WHIP with 119 Ks.

AVOID

The Entire A’s Bullpen

The problem with the A’s bullpen is anyone and everyone can and will close games. I see Billy Beane showcasing any player that other teams are inquiring about throughout the season. I wouldn’t even trust any of their bullpen in Holds leagues. It’s just to volatile to know when Beane will pull the trigger on anyone and everyone in the bullpen. The fire sale is still continuing in Oakland and will last until Oakland moves to San Jose and they get a REAL ballpark. Here is the A’s Bullpen to date. I don’t envision half these players being here by the end of the year.

Grant Balfour, Fautino De Los Santos, Brian Fuentes, Josh Olson, Neil Wagner, Jerry Blevins, Graham Godfrey, Andrew Carignan.

Target & Avoid DETROIT TIGERS

After a season with the Cy Young/MVP winner Detroit found out they could not ride Verlander’s arm all the way to the World Series. This team has both pitching and hitting and should again contend for the weak AL Central. If this team could have acquired Aramis Ramirez I would have picked them to win the AL pennant. That's another story. They do have some players under the radar and I targeted one on my favs.

TARGET

DOUG FISTER SP

Only a handful of pitchers in baseball history have had 30+ starts with a losing record and an era under 3.00. That is what Fister did last year.  If you’re an FIP believer, he was the 12th best pitcher in baseball last year. Ahead of names such as King Felix, Jared Weaver, Cole Hamels, and tons of other elite pitchers. Fister went 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA in 11 appearances (10 starts) down the stretch for Detroit. Now that he is on a contender and away from Seattle he could be 15+ game winner this year. He projects to be the #2 man behind Verlander and has 3 great pitches.   His 7.29 K/9 with Detroit completely dwarfed his 5.49 K/9 during his prior four months in Seattle. So look this year for some regression there, but a happy medium at 6.5K/9 is attainable in Detroit. My projections for Fister are:  14W, 3.55ERA, 1.18WHIP and 142K

AVOID

BRANDON INGE 3B

The longest tenured player wearing the Old English D is now officially on the back end of his career. Here is a guy that has had an 11 year career in MoTown and was sent down to Toledo for over week last year. The soon to be 35 year old Inge has two major flaws for a 3B. He has more career Ks than hits (1183 to 1081) and .235 career average. To me if you can’t put the bat on the ball you can’t drive in runs. From a fantasy perspective that is what we want, no need, from our drafted hot corner players…many RBIs. He may be a fan favorite but do not look for him to play in even a 100 games this year. Consider this year his swan song.

Target & Avoid MINNESOTA TWINS

After a 99 loss season and the loss of both Cuddyer and Kubel it may seem the Twinkies are far from being a team that has players to target. Yes they have the often injured Mauer who plays a weak position and could see more time at 1B and DH but IMO he will still be taken much to early in most drafts. The SP staff is mediocre at best and the IF is marginal too. That leaves the OF and bullpen. The addition of Willingham and his potential 30HR is nice but vanilla at best and he will not be seen as a bargain now that he is out of cavernous Oakland Stadium. So who to target?

MINNESOTA TWINS

TARGET

Matt Capps Closer

Capps will be one of the last closers off the board due to being on one of the worst AL teams. His numbers last year were nothing spectacular but he IS the Minnesota Closer this year and he will get 25 Saves. His career peripheral numbers are solid and won’t hurt you in any way. A 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP with a K/9 6.75. If you punt on Saves early in your draft remember Capps will be available in round 20 so target him there and be happy with his production for such a late pick. My projections: 3W, 30S, 4.05 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 39K

AVOID

Justin Morneau 1B

 Justin Morneau’s last 12 months (concussion, left knee surgery in September 2011, right foot surgery in September 2011, left wrist surgery in September 2011). He must pass more concussion tests before being cleared for off season workouts. However, Morneau states he expects to be ready for spring training. That’s a big however and reason to pass on Morneau this year. The Twins have already expressed concerns with him playing defense at all, which does not affect our fantasy stats but shows he is nowhere near ready for baseball duties. Minnesota is hoping and spinning he will be ready just to save face with losing Cuddyer and Kubel and to help sell season tickets.

Target & Avoid CLEVELAND INDIANS

Continuing with the AL Central

The Indians are a team that has as good a chance as any to win the weak AL Central. The players I have chosen to write about are heading in drastically different directions. One is under the radar and can be picked up late. The other one will be considered a “great rebound pick” and selected way to early in all drafts.

CLEVELAND INDIANS

TARGET

Jason Kipnis 2B

Drafted in the second round of the 2009 draft out of Arizona State University, Kipnis is one prospects/rookies that needs to be on your watch list. He has hit over .300 at every level in the minors, his last full season in Triple A he had 518 ABs with a .307 Batting Average (159 Hits) 16 HR, 74 RBI, 96 R, 9 SB .386 OBP .492 SLG%. That OBP it what should stand out to you come draft day, that .386 is Justin Pedroia numbers. 2B is a little deeper than in the past and if you miss out on the 3-5 elite performers you should grab Kipnis. The best move would to be having a Pedroia, Cano, or Uggla at 2B and then slot Kipnis as your MI. He has the potential to be a great sleeper on draft day and will be able to be scooped up in the mid-teen rounds. My projections for him are: 75R, 15HR, 70RBI, 15SB while hitting .271 and if you are in OBP leagues he helps even more.

AVOID

Grady Sizemore OF

When his own team comes out saying they do not expect Sizemore to play 150 games this year that is a major red flag. Coming off back to back years of arthroscopic surgery and not having any off season work out regiment coupled with no other teams offering any type of contract makes me think, no realize he is now in the twilight of a once promising career. That is also why Cleveland only offered a 1 year deal.  Still only 29, the previous 30/30 late 1^st round pick is not worth a draft choice at this time. With the bad knees his SB will be nearly void and he never had a good eye to hit for a high BA. His batting average over the last 3 years, with nearly 1000 ABs, is only .235 ouch! I truly believe his days as a lead off hitter are over too. Look for him to bat 7^th to start the year. My projections are on the high side: 61R, 15HR, 41 RBI, 2SB .245

Target & Avoid KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Let’s continue with the American League Central.

Next in line are the KC Royals. A team with over-hyped up and comers along with many young veterans. A team that can hit double after double but also has WTP…Warning Track Power. Many HRs come to die just short of the fences in KC. You will hear lots of pre-season hype about the Royals because of their young guns and that the All-Star game will be showcased there. But we are here to analyze the realities of Fantasy Baseball and who will help and hurt us come draft day.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

TARGET

Billy Butler 1B-DH

Butler only played 11 games last year at 1B so check your league settings to see if he qualifies at 1B, if not he will be relegated to your UTIL spot. To me that’s fine. He is the perfect player for that spot. He will not be benched in interleague play; he will get starts at 1B. His inability to qualify at 1B will shy away many owners come draft day and therefore drop his value. All the better, he can be plucked in the early double digit rounds and give you solid production. He will be 26 this year and has dropped a few pounds working with hitting coach Kevin Seitzer’s off-seasonwork out regiment. Expect some of those 45 doubles to become homers this year. He will be hitting clean-up so expect more RBI than in the past. My projection for him is 91 Runs, 24HR, 97 RBI, while hitting over .300

AVOID

Mike Moustakas

Moustakas will be another over hyped sophomore who will be taken many rounds to early. If you look at some of his production from last year many of his stats are alarming. He hit only .194 with RISP, .143 with RISP and 2 outs. He had a pop out rate of 17.5% for one month, thats a ton of infield flyouts. He has only 49 BB in 851 ABs between AAA and the Majors. Last year he swung at 35.5% pitches outside the strike zone. That grip it and rip it approach does not fare well against quality pitchers. He also only hit .191 against lefties. Once the season starts and he starts to struggle he will soon be hitting 8^th in the Royals line-up and we know that is not where you want your drafted 3B to be hitting. My projections for him are: 65Runs, 16 HR, 66 RBI, 3 SB while hitting .255

Target & Avoid CHICAGO WHITE SOX

In the mid to late rounds of your draft sometimes it seems some of the shine has diminished, the banter is less amusing, and after 2 to 3 hours you just feel tired and ready to pack it in. This is the time when your picks are what can separate you from the rest of the league. In those mid to late rounds your picks should have upside and a definite bang for your buck.  I am compiling a Target - Avoid series on players from each MLB team to help you in your draft.

Let’s start with the American League Central.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

TARGET

Alejandro De Aza OF

De Aza finished 2011 with 152 ABs and had his highest BA of the year (after his first 20 at bats) at .329 by the end of the season. Since being called up in late July he was a solid hitter across the board. De Aza had similar stats against Lefties and Righties, day and night, and home and away. De Aza has speed and GM Kenny Williams has stated that if he were making out the line-up card De Aza would be his full time lead-off hitter in 2012. De Aza has double digit HR potential, will score many runs from the lead-off spot and could get over 30 SB. My projections for him are 90R 12HR 52 RBI with 33 SB and hitting .281

AVOID

Gordon Beckham 2B

The 8^th overall pick of the 2008 draft has never lived up to that 1^st big league season. Since then he has hit .230 and .252 in the last 2 years. In that time he has 19 HR and over 200 Ks. No other 2B is even close to that few HR with that many strike outs. His OBS over the last 2 years is less than Mark Ellis if you can believe that. He is that name recognition pick that you can elevate in your draft chats and nominate early in auction drafts to let some sucker pick up. Beckman will bat 9^th for the Sox this year and could be on a very short leash under new Manager Ventura. In the wings is super sub Brent Lillibridge who has 4 fewer HR and 6 more stolen bases in 655 fewer ABs over the last 2 seasons compared to Beckham.  My projections for Beckham are 55 R, 11 HR, 59 RBI with 5 SB while hitting .242 that is if he can hold onto his job all year. That is not even worth a bench spot for a MI on your team.