Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Dynasty League Question

Corey writes in asking for help...

It is 30 man rosters in a 10 team league; however, you get to keep 20 of your 30 players... Here is the list of my keepers so far. What adjustments would you make in your opinion? Positions are C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, LF, RF, CF, 3OF, 2 UTIL,2SP,2 RP, 4P, 7BN. Non snake draft for the remaining 10 rounds to fill out players 21-30. 6 x 5 league (OBP, TB, HR, SB, AVG, RBI, W, QS, K, SV, and ERA)

Also, I was offered some very interesting trade in the past couple of days, them being.

Me Giving up: Cano         Receiving: Freeman, Buccholz, Teheran

Me Giving up: Cano         Receiving: Pujols

Me giving up: Cano, Street, Prado  Receiving: Wright, Lee, Freeman

Me giving up: Gallardo      Receiving: Buccholz, Teheran, 4th round pick

These guys in my league are all over Cano, I have received more offers, but they were Quantity over Quality, and I cannot afford that. There were offers going down that two other teams wanted to do involving 3 team deal all the players from my team were Cano, Prado, Street, Other players from Team A: Kennedy, Morrison, Gardner, Gordon, Quentin, Aramis, Liriano and Lee. Team B: Wright, Bucholz, Freeman, Tehrean, 4th round pick.

Do you see anything I don’t, or am I just over valuing Cano? I see no one ranked higher than Cano at all. Could you see any package that would make me give up Cano, Street, and Prado?
I also had interest from a 3rd team in Cano separate from the others, On his team his main players I was inquiring about were, AGON, Pujols, Hosmer, and Lawrie. He stated to me he was willing to pay for Cano, I told him I needed at least Pujols or AGON along with Hosmer or Lawrie. How much would he be overpaying? I realize I have no 1B, but have the best 2B in the game in my opinion or at least 1A (Pedroia).
Below are my keepers and non keepers would you make any adjustments?

Matt Wieters
Robinson Cano
Jemile Weeks
Kevin Youkilis
Alexi Ramirez
Carlos Beltran
Corey Hart
Andre Either
Curtis Granderson
Matt Holliday
Adam Jones
Hunter Pence
Yovani Gallardo
Clayton Kershaw
Jaime Garcia
Vance Worley
Edwin Jackson
Heath Bell
Drew Storen
Craig Kimbrel

Non Keepers:
Jon Jay
Placido Polanco
Martin Prado
AJ Burnett
Matt Harrison
Kyle Kenderick
Brad Lincoln
Ryan Vogelsong

Concerning your keepers:  A very solid core squad. The only change I would consider is keeping Vogelsong and possibly dropping Jackson especially if he ends up in the AL East. I feel your pitching and OF (so many possibly 20/20 guys here) are your two strongest assets on this team. Your weakness is obviously 1B and CI.
Analyzing trade #1
Yes you get a quality 1B but you do not need the pitching. Buchholz pitches in the toughest division in baseball and at times can kill your peripheral stats and probably won’t even get you 140Ks. I say no to this trade.
Trade #2
Getting Pujols in any trade is a win in the short term. If you are in this league for the next 5+ years Cano is the player you want. He dominates all others at his position and will continue to do so. Look for Cano to bat clean-up this year and then moving to the 3 hole for the next 5 years. This is truly and even trade for the short term but long term you will lose productivity with Pujols and watch Cano’s number get even better.
Trade #3
Of all the trades offered I like this one the best. Cano is elite at a scarce position…Prado you are dumping anyway…Street is a closer that can be easily replaced. You get Wright who will have better numbers this year due to the fences being brought in at his home park and this gives you and legitimate CI with Youk still at 3B. If I am assuming this is Cliff Lee you are getting a top 10 SP across the board and finally you fill in your 1B with a future All-Star who will be hitting in the 3 hole for the next decade in Atlanta. You by far dominate the outcome in this trade. I would take it immediately. Move Weeks into you 2B slot and then maybe shop Worley for a decent MI.
Trade #4
I’m a big Gallardo fan, especially after he dropped his BB/9 over 1.00 last year. He is only going to be 26 this year and is 200+K a year SP. He is a keeper and you should demand much more for him.
You asked if you are over valuing Cano. I say yes because he is that valuable and by the looks of the trades offered you many other GMs feel the same way.
Players I would look to move if they have hot starts would be Beltran and Holliday. Target a player like DeAza in Chicago or a prospect like Brett Jackson who will be called up soon for the Cubs. In Dynasty leagues you always want to move out the old and injured with youth. You should look to upgrade 10% of your team every year with youth. In the upcoming draft, target the best 2B/MI available and then as many Closers as you can. Get a large lead in Saves and then you can start to trade off closers for players that can bolster your lagging stats come the All-Star break. Hope this helps…now go win your league!!

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